Hedera (HBAR) has been stuck in a prolonged period of consolidation, leaving traders unsure of its next move. While its stability has prevented significant losses, it has also left market participants waiting for a breakout, with growing impatience in the community. This indecisiveness has caused Hedera traders to closely watch Bitcoin for cues, as the two assets share a growing correlation.
The funding rate for HBAR, which has been fluctuating between positive and negative, mirrors the market’s uncertainty. Traders are positioning themselves to capitalize on either a potential price surge or a further decline, but this tug-of-war of sentiment has resulted in an erratic funding rate. This volatility suggests that participants are unsure whether Hedera is poised for a breakout or if further downside is more likely.
In the midst of this uncertainty, traders’ impatience could lead to abrupt decisions, which could further impact HBAR’s price. With sentiment divided, the altcoin may face additional pressure, continuing its lack of momentum. Currently, HBAR’s macro momentum is closely tied to Bitcoin, which has a correlation of 0.65 with the asset. If Bitcoin manages to reclaim the $100,000 mark and sustains its rally, HBAR could see a similar boost, breaking free from its consolidation phase.
However, Bitcoin’s performance remains pivotal. Should Bitcoin falter, HBAR’s reliance on its correlation with the leading cryptocurrency could put it at risk. As of now, HBAR is trading at $0.27, hovering between the $0.25 and $0.33 range. Without a clear sentiment shift, this sideways movement could persist, leaving traders uncertain about the asset’s trajectory.
For HBAR to break out of its current consolidation, it will need Bitcoin’s momentum. A move above $0.33, supported by broader market positivity, could propel Hedera toward $0.39, invalidating the bearish outlook. Conversely, if market sentiment continues to sour, HBAR may test critical support levels, potentially pushing it lower. The next few weeks could be crucial for Hedera’s fate, with Bitcoin’s performance likely to set the tone for its next major move.
Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead. Grab a coffee and brace for impact as MicroStrategy (now Strategy) makes another bold move into Bitcoin (BTC), acquiring nearly $532 million worth and pushing its total holdings close to 600,000 BTC.
With the company now nearing a historic inclusion in the S&P 500 and its year-to-date (YTD) Bitcoin yield hitting nearly 20%, this could mark a pivotal moment in the growth of corporate crypto adoption.
Crypto News of the Day: Strategy Acquires 4,980 BTC, Eyes S&P 500 Entry
MicroStrategy has deepened its conviction in Bitcoin with a fresh purchase of 4,980 BTC for $531.9 million. The purchase, made at an average price of $106,801 per coin, brings the company’s holdings to 597,325 BTC.
According to the firm’s executive chair, Michael Saylor, these were acquired at a cumulative cost of $42.4 billion. With a blended average of $70,982 per Bitcoin, this brings Strategy’s YTD Bitcoin yield to 19.7%.
Strategy has acquired 4,980 BTC for ~$531.9 million at ~$106,801 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 19.7% YTD 2025. As of 6/29/2025, we hodl 597,325 $BTC acquired for ~$42.40 billion at ~$70,982 per bitcoin. $MSTR$STRK$STRF$STRDhttps://t.co/xvWnSkfukS
It also marks a key milestone in what may become the biggest traditional finance (TradFi) disruption yet: Strategy’s potential inclusion in the S&P 500.
BeInCrypto reported in a recent US Crypto News publication that MicroStrategy had a 91% chance of qualifying for inclusion in the S&P 500. The report cited insights from data analyst Jeff Walton, who said this wager hinged on Bitcoin’s price not falling more than 10% before June 30.
More closely, Walton pegged the critical support level at $95,240, enough to keep Strategy’s quarterly earnings in positive territory and meet the S&P’s requirement of four consecutive profitable quarters.
So far, that scenario is playing out. With just hours remaining in the quarter, Walton’s model puts the probability of a disqualifying 10% drop at just 1.8%.
“This is the first positive FASB Fair Value Accounting period for $MSTR’s BTC holdings, and $MSTR’s first earnings period > $500M Net Income in company history,” Walton posted on X.
If successful, Strategy would become the second crypto-linked company to enter the S&P 500 in 2025, following Coinbase’s historicaddition in May. But not everyone is cheering.
“This event will cause TradFi brains to go into full meltdown… This will be the most hated rally of all time,” Walton warned.
From skeptics questioning BTC-linked earnings to doubters highlighting the lack of cash flow, Strategy’s rise continues to provoke debate over what qualifies as sustainable corporate performance in crypto.
A Bull Market Built on Debt? Risks of the Bitcoin Corporate Treasury Model
Strategy’s S&P 500 bid also comes as a wider wave of corporate Bitcoin adoption reshapes the digital asset investment sector.
A report from Breed.vc notes that 199 entities now collectively hold over 3 million BTC, worth approximately $315 billion. Based on the report, 147 of them are private or public companies.
While the proliferation of Bitcoin-holding companies may appear bullish for BTC, it introduces a new layer of systemic fragility.
Strategy survived the brutal 2022–23 bear market, but only barely. Now, an extended downturn—especially one coinciding with maturing debt—could force liquidations. Such an outcome would trigger what analysts call a reflexive death spiral.
A falling MNAV erodes the company’s stock value, tightening access to capital, and potentially forcing BTC sales that drive prices even lower.
Smaller players are especially vulnerable. Without MicroStrategy’s scale, legacy revenue, or institutional inflows, these firms often face higher leverage ratios and worse financing terms. Should Bitcoin dip sharply, the resulting stress could cause cascading failures.
That said, contagion risk remains limited as most funding is equity-based, not debt-driven. Still, the few who overleverage in pursuing rapid BTC accumulation could set off domino effects.
Chart of the Day
Illustrative Crypto Treasury Company Death Spiral. Source: Breed
This chart illustrates the cycle of a crypto market crisis. When the BTC price drops, it leads to forced liquidations, refinancing issues, and market panic, triggering further price declines and contagion.
Byte-Sized Alpha
Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:
On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin price recovery may soon face headwinds. Rising sell-side pressure from miners and long-term holders (LTHs) threatens to correct the king coin’s recent gains.
Metaverse-based token Decentraland (MANA) is today’s top-performing asset. The altcoin’s value has soared over 10% in the past 24 hours, pushing it to a two-month high of $0.31 at press time.
With technical indicators pointing at renewed investor interest and a strong bullish trend, MANA price may be poised to extend its rally in the short term.
MANA Price Rally Supported By Demand
An assessment of the MANA/USD one-day chart reveals a steady uptick in the token’s on-balance volume (OBV), reflecting the rise in its demand. This momentum indicator is at 9.47 billion at press time, its highest level since December 2024.
The OBV indicator measures an asset’s buying and selling pressure. It adds volume on up days and subtracts it on down days. This dynamic helps traders determine whether volume supports the price trend at any given moment.
As observed with MANA, an asset’s OBV rising alongside its price signals strong buying interest. This effectively confirms the sustainability of a bullish move. The trend signals that traders’ demand backs the token’s double-digit price rally over the past day.
Moreover, MANA trades above its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), supporting this bullish outlook. At press time, this key moving average forms a dynamic support level below MANA’s price at $0.26.
Decentraland (MANA) 20-day EMA
The 20-day EMA measures an asset’s average price over the past 20 trading days, giving more weight to recent prices. When it falls below the price, it suggests that the market is in a short-term uptrend, with recent prices higher than the average of the past 20 days.
This indicates strong bullish momentum, as MANA’s price currently outperforms the recent average.
MANA Bulls Maintain Control
On the daily chart, MANA was trading above an ascending trend line, accentuating its price surge. This bullish pattern acts as support and emerges when an asset’s price forms higher lows.
It indicates a consistent upward movement over time amid growing buyer momentum.
This technical formation suggests MANA buyers are in control, signifying bullish market sentiment. If this outlook sustains, MANA price growth will likely continue, with the trendline providing downward support.
Such an action could see the token’s price break above $0.34, potentially climbing toward $0.44. Such a move would constitute a 41% move above current levels.
Since US President Donald Trump assumed office, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has dropped, settled, or paused lawsuits against prominent crypto entities left and right. In stark contrast to the previous administration’s leadership under Chair Gary Gensler, the SEC seems to be parting from its previous crackdown on digital assets.
In an interview with BeInCrypto, Nick Puckrin, Founder of The Coin Bureau, and Hank Huang, Chief Executive Officer at Kronos Research, highlighted the substantial election influence the crypto industry had over Trump’s candidacy as a contributing factor to the SEC’s looser stance on crypto.
The SEC’s Approach Under Trump
The SEC has experienced a clear shift in its approach to crypto lawsuits under Trump’s presidency. Its move away from the aggressive enforcement tactics of its previous leadership has largely characterized this shift.
“When President Donald Trump won the US election, the crypto industry rejoiced. Finally, the ‘regulation by enforcement’ era, which the SEC under the leadership of Gary Gensler was so famous for, was about to come to an end. And the new administration didn’t disappoint. Within just a couple of weeks of Trump’s inauguration, the revamped SEC started dropping lawsuits against crypto firms left, right and center,” Puckrin said.
Two weeks ago, the SEC officially dropped its appeal and XRP lawsuit against Ripple Labs, ending a five-year legal battle. The Commission had originally accused Ripple of conducting an unregistered securities offering worth $1.3 billion through XRP sales.
“After more than four years in limbo, the SEC has officially decided that XRP is not a security (though what it is instead remains to be seen). This case has been weighing heavily on XRP – the fourth largest cryptocurrency with a market cap of roughly $130 billion– so its resolution is a major win,” Puckrin added.
The wider crypto community celebrated the outcome, with many arguing that it will set a precedent for how digital assets are classified in the US. This prediction is warranted, given that the SEC has been on a lawsuit-dropping spree.
The SEC has also dropped several ongoing investigations against OpenSea, Robinhood, Uniswap Labs, Kraken, and Gemini. It has also asked a federal court to issue a 60-day pause over its litigation against Binance. Meanwhile, the Commission settled its investigation into ConsenSys over its Ethereum software products.
These lawsuits surfaced in parallel to a series of crypto-friendly measures meant to foster greater innovation and curb potential regulatory suffocation that had existed during the Biden era.
Will New Leadership Define Clear Crypto Regulations?
A day after Trump assumed office, SEC Acting Chairman Mark Uyeda announced the creation of a dedicated crypto task force led by Commissioner Hester Peirce. The task force was reportedly designed to resolve long-standing ambiguities in the regulatory treatment of digital assets.
In all SEC crypto lawsuits, Commissioner Uyeda has implemented a strategy prioritizing industry engagement to develop regulatory frameworks that balance innovation and investor protection.
Meanwhile, Trump strategically nominated Paul Atkins, a crypto-curious, regulation-light candidate, to replace Gensler as head of the SEC. Just this week, the Senate Banking Committee voted to advance Atkins’ nomination to the full Senate.
Now, only a stone’s throw away from becoming SEC Chair, Atkins is expected to loosen regulatory oversight on crypto.
“With the establishment of a new Task Force and key appointees like Paul Atkins fostering innovation, Trump’s strategic move to create a Bitcoin reserve within the government further underscores his commitment to supporting the industry. The future of crypto regulations will be focused on less oversight and the beginning of a delicate but promising thaw in the regulatory landscape,” Huang added.
Though some say Trump’s handling of crypto affairs has resulted in a never-before-seen triumph, others are weary that his increasing involvement in the industry has turned out to be a recipe for disaster.
The Impact of Crypto Donations on Regulations
Several industry leaders went to great lengths to ensure that Trump became America’s 47th president. Millions of dollars in donations from crypto firms throughout Trump’s campaign illustrated these efforts.
According to a Public Citizen report, over $119 million from crypto corporations went into influencing the 2024 federal elections, largely through Fairshake, a non-partisan super PAC backing pro-crypto candidates and opposing skeptics.
Crypto corporations donated over $119 million to the 2024 federal elections. Source: Public Citizen
Coinbase and Ripple, among others who stand to profit, directly provided over half of Fairshake’s funding. The remaining funds mostly came from billionaire crypto executives and venture capitalists. Notable contributions included $44 million from the founders of Andreessen Horowitz, $5 million from the Winklevoss twins, and $1 million from Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong.
So far, big crypto’s spending strategy is paying off with a more favorable environment.
Without a clear framework to guide the crypto industry following these dropped lawsuits, this lax approach risks being short-lived. Ultimately, this could tarnish long-term crypto adoption.
“Somehow, all these victories feel somewhat hollow after the reputation of the crypto industry has been tarnished by the billions of dollars in combined losses from meme coin scams. Meanwhile, Hayden Davis, the mastermind behind LIBRA, continues to launch fraudulent meme tokens, despite being on the Interpol wanted list,” he said.
A 2024 report by Web3 intelligence platform Merkle Science revealed that meme coin rug pulls cost investors over $500 million. The February LIBRA incident showed how this trend was carried over to 2025. Nansen data revealed that 86% of investors lost $251 million, while insiders pocketed $180 million in profits.
Though crypto scammers may be charged with related crimes like wire fraud or money laundering, rug pulling is legal. Better said, it’s unaccounted for. No regulation holds crypto insiders responsible for meme coin scams.
“As crypto becomes an ever more mainstream asset class, consumers need to be protected against those who choose to use it for nefarious purposes. One way to do this is through education, and that’s our job as an industry. But deterring scams and extractive behavior is the job of the regulators. And it’s time they stepped up to the task,” Puckrin told BeInCrypto.
If the SEC doesn’t take advantage of this opportunity to curb the consequences that meme coin scams can produce, it will result in an enormous setback for the industry.
Comprehensive Regulation Beyond Dropped Lawsuits
Puckrin illustrated the need for heightened regulatory clarity in crypto by drawing attention to the way the SEC penalizes insider trading in the context of traditional investing.
“In traditional investing, insider trading is a serious crime. In the US, it’s punishable by fines of up to $5 million for individuals and prison sentences up to 20 years. Similarly, federal penalties for engaging with illegal gambling activities include up to five years in prison. Perpetrators of memecoin scams must be punished with the same level of severity, because the result is the same: manipulating markets and cheating unsuspecting investors out of their savings,” he said.
Puckrin clarified, however, that the issue isn’t solely about penalizing fraudsters. Just as the SEC’s past overregulation hindered the industry, the current lack of meme coin rules creates an environment where new scams and exploitative schemes can easily flourish.
“Yes, the removal of lawsuits is great news for blockchain innovation, but something needs to replace it. Indeed, serious cryptocurrency firms have never advocated for an unregulated Wild West. What they want is clarity and rules that are fit for the nascent blockchain industry – not just a copy-and-paste of existing financial regulations that simply don’t work for crypto,” he said.
Although the Trump administration has only been in place for four months, the clock is ticking, and meaningful change takes time.
Unanswered Questions Loom
Puckrin expressed concern over the current administration’s prioritization of lawsuit dismissals instead of working faster to implement transcendental crypto regulation.
“My concern is that regulators will keep kicking the can down the road with crypto regulation, having gained the approval of the industry for dropping the many lawsuits that were stifling its growth. And this is incredibly dangerous,” he told BeInCrypto.
Meanwhile, critical questions that only the SEC can define remain unanswered.
“What are memecoins and who will ensure another LIBRA fiasco doesn’t happen? Are utility altcoins now commodities and if so, will the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulate them? And, importantly, what do we do about compensating investors who have lost billions to crypto fraud?” Puckrin concluded.
The SEC’s current direction promises a regulated renaissance or a breeding ground for future crises.
With billions lost and critical questions unanswered, the future of crypto hinges on whether the regulatory body will translate its recent shift into a lasting framework that fosters innovation without sacrificing investor protection.
