Cardano’s price has surged 10% over the past 24 hours, riding the wave of a broader crypto market rally to reach a two-month high.
The sharp move upward has pushed ADA to levels last seen in early March and has reignited bullish sentiment among spot and derivatives traders.
Cardano’s 10% Pump Sparks Surge in Profitable Supply
On-chain data from Santiment reveals that Cardano’s double-digit rally has boosted the percentage of its supply in profit. As of this writing, approximately 74.14% of ADA’s circulating supply—equivalent to 26.91 billion tokens—is now held at a profit.
Cardano Percent of Total Supply in Profit. Source: Santiment
When an asset’s profit supply spikes, it means that a significant portion of its circulating supply is now worth more than when it was acquired. Historically, a rise in profit supply correlates with renewed accumulation and often hints at further upward momentum as market sentiment improves.
Moreover, in the ADA derivatives market, the coin’s funding rate remains firmly positive, indicating that traders are increasingly taking long positions in anticipation of continued gains. This is currently at 0.0099%.
The funding rate is a recurring payment between traders in perpetual futures contracts, designed to keep the contract price aligned with the spot market.
When positive like this, traders holding long positions are paying those with shorts, indicating bullish sentiment and expectations of further price increases.
ADA Rally Gains Steam, but Profit-Taking Could Threaten $0.76 Support
With technical indicators flashing bullish and sentiment strengthening, ADA buyers have regained control, at least for now. If buying pressure strengthens and bull dominance remains, ADA could maintain its upward trend and rally to $0.84.
However, once buyers’ exhaustion sets in and traders begin to lock in their soaring profits, ADA could break below the support at $0.76 and fall toward $0.66.
Altcoins like AIXBT, Echelon Prime (PRIME), and Balancer (BAL) have posted massive gains heading into the first week of May, but key technical indicators now suggest all three may be overbought. AIXBT is up nearly 95% on the week with strong price momentum, yet it still lags the broader market with a low relative strength.
PRIME and BAL have both surged over 30% in the last 24 hours, but each shows extreme RSI readings above 70 while also underperforming in relative strength—raising red flags about sustainability. While the rallies have drawn short-term attention, traders should be cautious as these tokens show signs of overheating without broader market confirmation.
AIXBT
AIXBT, one of the most recognized crypto AI agents tokens, has emerged as a top performer, surging nearly 40% in the last 24 hours and over 95% in the past seven days.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum indicator that moves from 0 to 100. Values above 70 mean the asset is overbought and may pull back. Values below 30 suggest it’s oversold and could rebound.
Relative Strength (RS) compares a token’s performance to a benchmark. RS above 1.0 means outperformance. Below 1.0 means underperformance. AIXBT has an RSI of 73.92 and an RS of 0.69. That technically makes it overbought, but still lagging behind the broader market.
This shows that AIXBT’s rally has been sharp, but not strong relative to other assets. The surge may be driven more by short-term speculation than sustained market strength.
Echelon Prime (PRIME)
Echelon Prime has surged 33% in the last 24 hours, making it one of the day’s top-performing altcoins.
Its trading volume has exploded by 276%, reaching nearly $16 million—an indication of heightened trader interest and momentum.
However, while the price action is impressive, technical indicators are flashing caution in the short term.
PRIME’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 74, firmly in overbought territory. At the same time, its Relative Strength (RS) is just 0.124.
This combination—high RSI and low RS—suggests the recent rally may be unsustainable.
While there’s strong short-term demand, the token lacks confirmation from relative market strength, making PRIME vulnerable to a sharp correction if buying pressure fades.
Balancer (BAL)
Balancer has jumped over 41% in the last 24 hours, supported by a sharp rise in trading activity, with volume climbing to $53 million.
BAL’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 79.33, signaling extreme overbought conditions. Meanwhile, its Relative Strength (RS) stands at just 0.27, indicating it is still underperforming relative to the broader market.
Bitcoin’s decisive break above the psychologically significant $95,000 mark has injected fresh optimism into the market, at least among miners.
This key milestone has triggered a shift in miner sentiment, with on-chain data showing a noticeable uptick in BTC miner reserves over the past few days.
Miners Bet on BTC Upside as Reserve Jumps from Yearly Low
According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s miner reserve, which had been in a sustained downtrend, began to rise on April 29, shortly after BTC closed above the $95,000 threshold.
For context, the reserve had dropped to a year-to-date low of 1.80 million BTC just a day earlier before reversing course and showing signs of accumulation.
Bitcoin’s miner reserve tracks the number of coins held in miners’ wallets. It represents the coin reserves miners have yet to sell. When it falls, miners are moving coins out of their wallets, usually to sell, confirming growing bearish sentiment against BTC.
Conversely, when this metric rises, as it is now, it suggests miners are holding onto more of their mined coins, often reflecting growing confidence in the BTC’s future price appreciation.
Moreover, the bullish shift in miner sentiment is further supported by the positive miner netflow recorded since April 29. This signals that more coins are being put into miner wallets rather than offloading to exchanges.
Such behavior reflects confidence in further upside, as miners, often seen as long-term holders, are choosing to accumulate rather than liquidate.
There Is a Catch
However, the sentiment is not universally bullish. While BTC miners are stepping back from selling, derivatives data tells a different story.
In the futures market, BTC’s funding rate has remained negative since the beginning of May, a sign that a significant portion of traders are betting on a near-term price correction. At press time, the coin’s funding rate is -0.0056%.
The funding rate is a periodic payment exchanged between long and short traders in perpetual futures contracts to keep the contract price aligned with the spot price.
When it is positive, it means traders holding long positions are paying those with short positions, indicating that bullish sentiment dominates the market.
On the other hand, a negative funding rate like this signals more short bets than long ones, suggesting bearish pressure on BTC’s price.
Breakout or Breakdown as Traders and Miners Diverge
While miner behavior may point to renewed confidence, the steady bearish sentiment in derivatives suggests that traders remain wary of a potential pullback.
If coin accumulation strengthens, BTC could extend its gains, break above the resistance at $98,515, and attempt to regain the $102,080 price mark.
Solana has emerged as a powerful presence in the crypto industry. Since its inception in 2020, the network has dominated the market, demonstrating remarkable levels of user engagement and practical utility, particularly in decentralized finance (DeFi). Many in the industry view it as the next natural contender to receive an ETF approval in the United States.
However, others are more cautious in their evaluations. BeInCrypto spoke with representatives from Gravity, Variant, and OKX to understand the areas where Solana is still lacking. Industry leaders referred to centralization, network reliability, and excessive regulation as points of contention for Solana’s ETF approval.
Bitcoin and Ethereum’s Precedent
The availability of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for prominent cryptocurrencies has grown over the past year. These funds offer investors diversified investment opportunities and act as a bridge between traditional finance and the increasingly mainstream cryptocurrency market.
Meanwhile, the deadline for some filings, including Grayscale’s, was extended until October. Nonetheless, posts on X and some analytical reports suggest yesterday’s deadline as a date of interest for an initial or consolidated SEC response to several applications.
2025 Predictions and Market Expectations
The tentative approval of a Solana ETF has generated much debate across social media platforms. ETF President Nate Geraci formally predicted that 2025 would be the year of crypto ETFs and that Solana would receive its approval this year.
Per previous reports, former Trump White House Secretary Anthony Scaramucci expressed that, with a Trump reelection, Solana ETFs could gain approval during Q1 of 2025. According to his predictions, Solana would receive the SEC’s green light during the next two weeks.
Meanwhile, the prediction market Polymarket estimates an 82% chance that a Solana ETF will get approved in 2025.
According to a Polymarket poll, Solana has an 82% chance of getting an ETF approval in 2025. Source: Polymarket
Several factors make an imminent Solana ETF approval seem plausible. Less than five years after the network launched, Solana quickly became a major player in the crypto industry, attracting users for its high transaction speeds and low gas fees.
“From a network perspective, Solana’s performance has been remarkable, now driving nearly 50% of all global DEX volume– a dominance that fundamentally reshapes the DeFi landscape. The blockchain is not just handling unprecedented transaction volumes… it’s transforming our understanding of blockchain scalability at scale,” Lennix Lai, Global Chief Commercial Officer at OKX told BeInCrypto.
Solana has established itself as a dynamic force in the crypto industry following a successful 2024.
A Messari report detailed particular growth in Solana’s final quarter across DeFi, liquid staking, NFTs, and institutional involvement. The total value locked (TVL) in Solana’s DeFi sector increased substantially, growing by 64% to $8.6 billion, which placed it behind Ethereum as the second-largest network based on TVL.
Solana’s positive performance, coupled with Donald Trump’s reelection to the US presidency, further amplified the crypto industry’s optimism over an ETF approval.
However, some industry experts have expressed more tempered expectations.
Experts Offer Tempered Expectations
A few days before Trump assumed the presidency, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart said Solana ETFs may not be launched in the US until 2026. He cited the SEC’s precedent of taking a lot of time to review filings as the cause for delay.
In another post, Bloomberg Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said that ETF approvals for other cryptocurrencies were more likely to occur before Solana.
“We expect a wave of cryptocurrency ETFs next year, albeit not all at once. First out is likely the BTC + ETH combo ETFs, then prob Litecoin (bc its fork of btc = commodity), then HBAR (bc not labeled security) and then XRP/Solana (which have been labeled securities in pending lawsuits),” Balchunas said.
Balchunas further explained that complex legal issues around Solana, relating to its status as a security, need to be resolved before it can gain ETF approval. Consequently, he deemed the approval of Litecoin or Hedera ETFs more likely.
Uncertainty over whether Solana classifies as a security is a major driver fueling doubts over its ETF approval.
Security Classification Concerns
Martins Benkitis, co-founder and CEO of Gravity, explained that Solana’s regulatory classification complicates its path to approval.
“It’s no secret there’s currently a lack of precedent for Layer-1 blockchains beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum in the ETF space, this suggests cautious optimism but with higher regulatory hurdles. Bitcoin, being a commodity in the SEC’s eyes, and Ethereum’s gradual transition to PoS had different legal considerations. Solana, on the other hand, faces concerns over potential classification as a security due to its token distribution and foundation’s involvement,” Benkitis told BeInCrypto.
The SEC identified Solana as a security in lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase over the past two years, although these lawsuits have since been dropped. The SEC argued that these tokens could be considered investment contracts under the Howey Test.
While some interpreted the SEC’s lawsuit withdrawal as a softening stance on Solana’s security classification, others quickly challenged this assumption.
“There is no reason to think [the] SEC has decided SOL is a non-security. That they don’t want to do discovery on a dozen tokens in the Binance case appears to be a litigation tactic, not a change in policy,” said Jake Chervinsky, Chief Legal Officer at Variant, following the Binance lawsuit withdrawal in July 2024.
Others believe that a pro-crypto administration should be enough to influence the SEC to consider Solana as a non-security. Lai disagrees.
“The changing political landscape, particularly with Trump’s victory and pro-crypto stance, could create a more constructive environment for innovative blockchain platforms like Solana. However, the technical and market structure considerations will remain crucial regardless of administration changes,” he said.
In the meantime, there are several other requirements Solana must meet.
On his part, Lai added other aspects to the list of considerations.
“While Polymarket shows high odds for 2025 approval, several critical factors suggest a more complex pathway: Solana’s technological architecture presents unique challenges with its PoS mechanism; The absence of CME futures raises liquidity and risk management concerns; Historical network downtime incidents need addressing; Centralization questions relative to BTC and ETH remain unresolved; Institutional interest hasn’t matched BTC and ETH levels despite the network driving 48% of global DEX volume; [and] the temporary nature of trending themes suggests caution in using current volumes as primary indicators,” Lai told BeInCrypto.
Concerns about centralization and scalability have long been discussed regarding Solana, even outside of discussions over an ETF approval.
Since 2021, Solana has suffered over a dozen network outages varying in severity. These outages have jeopardized the network’s reputation as stable and reliable– two strongly considered characteristics during the ETF approval process.
“From a market making standpoint, network reliability is crucial as any downtime or congestion can significantly impact trading operations and order execution,” Benkitis affirmed.
However, Solana has successfully curbed the number of outages it has experienced. Once notorious for the frequency of its shutdowns, the last time Solana experienced one was in February 2024.
Meanwhile, developers designed Solana’s upcoming Firedancer validator client to improve network stability and transaction processing. Its distinct codebase offers greater resilience against widespread outages and will enhance Solana’s performance.
Yet, Solana must also mitigate centralization concerns to improve its chances of obtaining ETF approval.
Centralization Concerns
Solana’s validator node requirements, which demand significant hardware investments, can create barriers to entry. These obstacles can potentially concentrate power within the network among those capable of affording the necessary infrastructure.
In turn, the protocol’s limited number of validators compared to other networks raises concerns over centralization. For context, while Solana currently has around 2,000 active validators, Ethereum passed the one million benchmark last year—the largest number recorded by any blockchain network.
Though Solana’s hardware reliance speeds up the network, it also raises decentralization concerns. Benkitis factored this aspect into his evaluation of an ETF approval.
Its currently underdeveloped futures market infrastructure further complicates Solana’s viability as an ETF candidate.
Its filings were unprecedented because the network did not have a previously established futures market. This factor was crucial in determining an ETF approval for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
“The lack of CME futures and institutional frameworks comparable to BTC/ETH could influence [the SEC’s] evaluation,” Lai said.
He added that the proliferation of meme tokens minted on Solana could present themselves as a potential roadblock.
“Market reactions reflect Solana’s emergence as the primary driver of this cycle, with DEX volumes exceeding $100 billion and dominating major aggregators. However, I believe the temporary nature of trending themes suggests continued volatility. While technological advancement and growing institutional adoption may provide stronger foundations, we need to maintain perspective on the cyclical nature of crypto trends,” Lai said.
This more recent development in Solana’s attraction also brings its set of downsides.
Meme Coin Influence and Regulatory Concerns
The expanding meme coin market on Solana partially explains its popularity. Platforms like Pump.fun allow anyone to launch their tokens, and this design has even led to celebrities launching their tokens on the platform.
More recently, political figures like Donald Trump and Argentine president Javier Milei have also launched meme tokens on Solana platforms. Yet, these activities have proven to be high-risk. In many cases, meme coin investments have caused smaller retailers millions of dollars in losses.
Benkitis said that the SEC might frown upon the speculative nature of these trading activities.
“While an ETF approval could unlock liquidity opportunities, the market’s heavy dependence on speculative sentiment calls for a measured and cautious approach,” he said.
With so many considerations, approving a Solana ETF in 2025 is far from guaranteed. The SEC’s eventual decision will be a defining moment for the network and the broader crypto industry.
