Banana (BANANA) has recently seen a price rally, gaining 44% as it attempts to break out of a descending wedge pattern. While this bullish setup suggests the potential for further gains, investors’ behavior could hinder the altcoin’s progress.
Despite the price rise, many investors are reluctant to hold, potentially delaying the breakout.
Banana Gun Faces Selling
Over the past two weeks, the supply of Banana on exchanges has risen by 300,000 tokens, worth just under $5 million. This increase in selling pressure amounts to roughly 9% of the entire market cap, which stands at $55 million. The growing supply on exchanges is a direct result of the altcoin failing to sustain its recovery, pushing many investors to sell and lock in profits.
This increased selling activity points to a highly bearish sentiment surrounding Banana. The failure to recover has triggered a wave of profit-taking, further weighing on the price.
The overall macro momentum for Banana has been marked by a significant spike in active deposits over the past 24 hours, the highest since November 2024. This surge indicates that more Banana tokens are being offloaded, reflecting investor sentiment and profit-taking behavior.
Unlike previous selling periods where investors sought to offset losses, this round of selling appears to be driven by those booking profits. This shift in behavior could signal further selling in the short term, particularly if the price stabilizes or continues to rise.
At the moment, Banana is trading at $15.95 after rising by 44% over the past day, sitting within a descending wedge pattern that typically signals bullish potential. However, despite this setup, the altcoin has struggled to break out in the last 24 hours, leaving its future uncertain.
If the current weak momentum and selling trends persist, Banana will likely test the lower trend line of the pattern. This could push the price down to $10.29, delaying any potential recovery and reinforcing the bearish outlook.
On the other hand, if broader market conditions improve and investor sentiment shifts, Banana could see a breakout from the wedge pattern. Successfully breaching the $17.57 barrier would signal a reversal and could send the price towards $23.24. Such a move would invalidate the current bearish outlook and mark the beginning of a stronger upward trend for Banana.
Solana has emerged as a powerful presence in the crypto industry. Since its inception in 2020, the network has dominated the market, demonstrating remarkable levels of user engagement and practical utility, particularly in decentralized finance (DeFi). Many in the industry view it as the next natural contender to receive an ETF approval in the United States.
However, others are more cautious in their evaluations. BeInCrypto spoke with representatives from Gravity, Variant, and OKX to understand the areas where Solana is still lacking. Industry leaders referred to centralization, network reliability, and excessive regulation as points of contention for Solana’s ETF approval.
Bitcoin and Ethereum’s Precedent
The availability of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for prominent cryptocurrencies has grown over the past year. These funds offer investors diversified investment opportunities and act as a bridge between traditional finance and the increasingly mainstream cryptocurrency market.
Meanwhile, the deadline for some filings, including Grayscale’s, was extended until October. Nonetheless, posts on X and some analytical reports suggest yesterday’s deadline as a date of interest for an initial or consolidated SEC response to several applications.
2025 Predictions and Market Expectations
The tentative approval of a Solana ETF has generated much debate across social media platforms. ETF President Nate Geraci formally predicted that 2025 would be the year of crypto ETFs and that Solana would receive its approval this year.
Per previous reports, former Trump White House Secretary Anthony Scaramucci expressed that, with a Trump reelection, Solana ETFs could gain approval during Q1 of 2025. According to his predictions, Solana would receive the SEC’s green light during the next two weeks.
Meanwhile, the prediction market Polymarket estimates an 82% chance that a Solana ETF will get approved in 2025.
According to a Polymarket poll, Solana has an 82% chance of getting an ETF approval in 2025. Source: Polymarket
Several factors make an imminent Solana ETF approval seem plausible. Less than five years after the network launched, Solana quickly became a major player in the crypto industry, attracting users for its high transaction speeds and low gas fees.
“From a network perspective, Solana’s performance has been remarkable, now driving nearly 50% of all global DEX volume– a dominance that fundamentally reshapes the DeFi landscape. The blockchain is not just handling unprecedented transaction volumes… it’s transforming our understanding of blockchain scalability at scale,” Lennix Lai, Global Chief Commercial Officer at OKX told BeInCrypto.
Solana has established itself as a dynamic force in the crypto industry following a successful 2024.
A Messari report detailed particular growth in Solana’s final quarter across DeFi, liquid staking, NFTs, and institutional involvement. The total value locked (TVL) in Solana’s DeFi sector increased substantially, growing by 64% to $8.6 billion, which placed it behind Ethereum as the second-largest network based on TVL.
Solana’s positive performance, coupled with Donald Trump’s reelection to the US presidency, further amplified the crypto industry’s optimism over an ETF approval.
However, some industry experts have expressed more tempered expectations.
Experts Offer Tempered Expectations
A few days before Trump assumed the presidency, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart said Solana ETFs may not be launched in the US until 2026. He cited the SEC’s precedent of taking a lot of time to review filings as the cause for delay.
In another post, Bloomberg Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said that ETF approvals for other cryptocurrencies were more likely to occur before Solana.
“We expect a wave of cryptocurrency ETFs next year, albeit not all at once. First out is likely the BTC + ETH combo ETFs, then prob Litecoin (bc its fork of btc = commodity), then HBAR (bc not labeled security) and then XRP/Solana (which have been labeled securities in pending lawsuits),” Balchunas said.
Balchunas further explained that complex legal issues around Solana, relating to its status as a security, need to be resolved before it can gain ETF approval. Consequently, he deemed the approval of Litecoin or Hedera ETFs more likely.
Uncertainty over whether Solana classifies as a security is a major driver fueling doubts over its ETF approval.
Security Classification Concerns
Martins Benkitis, co-founder and CEO of Gravity, explained that Solana’s regulatory classification complicates its path to approval.
“It’s no secret there’s currently a lack of precedent for Layer-1 blockchains beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum in the ETF space, this suggests cautious optimism but with higher regulatory hurdles. Bitcoin, being a commodity in the SEC’s eyes, and Ethereum’s gradual transition to PoS had different legal considerations. Solana, on the other hand, faces concerns over potential classification as a security due to its token distribution and foundation’s involvement,” Benkitis told BeInCrypto.
The SEC identified Solana as a security in lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase over the past two years, although these lawsuits have since been dropped. The SEC argued that these tokens could be considered investment contracts under the Howey Test.
While some interpreted the SEC’s lawsuit withdrawal as a softening stance on Solana’s security classification, others quickly challenged this assumption.
“There is no reason to think [the] SEC has decided SOL is a non-security. That they don’t want to do discovery on a dozen tokens in the Binance case appears to be a litigation tactic, not a change in policy,” said Jake Chervinsky, Chief Legal Officer at Variant, following the Binance lawsuit withdrawal in July 2024.
Others believe that a pro-crypto administration should be enough to influence the SEC to consider Solana as a non-security. Lai disagrees.
“The changing political landscape, particularly with Trump’s victory and pro-crypto stance, could create a more constructive environment for innovative blockchain platforms like Solana. However, the technical and market structure considerations will remain crucial regardless of administration changes,” he said.
In the meantime, there are several other requirements Solana must meet.
On his part, Lai added other aspects to the list of considerations.
“While Polymarket shows high odds for 2025 approval, several critical factors suggest a more complex pathway: Solana’s technological architecture presents unique challenges with its PoS mechanism; The absence of CME futures raises liquidity and risk management concerns; Historical network downtime incidents need addressing; Centralization questions relative to BTC and ETH remain unresolved; Institutional interest hasn’t matched BTC and ETH levels despite the network driving 48% of global DEX volume; [and] the temporary nature of trending themes suggests caution in using current volumes as primary indicators,” Lai told BeInCrypto.
Concerns about centralization and scalability have long been discussed regarding Solana, even outside of discussions over an ETF approval.
Since 2021, Solana has suffered over a dozen network outages varying in severity. These outages have jeopardized the network’s reputation as stable and reliable– two strongly considered characteristics during the ETF approval process.
“From a market making standpoint, network reliability is crucial as any downtime or congestion can significantly impact trading operations and order execution,” Benkitis affirmed.
However, Solana has successfully curbed the number of outages it has experienced. Once notorious for the frequency of its shutdowns, the last time Solana experienced one was in February 2024.
Meanwhile, developers designed Solana’s upcoming Firedancer validator client to improve network stability and transaction processing. Its distinct codebase offers greater resilience against widespread outages and will enhance Solana’s performance.
Yet, Solana must also mitigate centralization concerns to improve its chances of obtaining ETF approval.
Centralization Concerns
Solana’s validator node requirements, which demand significant hardware investments, can create barriers to entry. These obstacles can potentially concentrate power within the network among those capable of affording the necessary infrastructure.
In turn, the protocol’s limited number of validators compared to other networks raises concerns over centralization. For context, while Solana currently has around 2,000 active validators, Ethereum passed the one million benchmark last year—the largest number recorded by any blockchain network.
Though Solana’s hardware reliance speeds up the network, it also raises decentralization concerns. Benkitis factored this aspect into his evaluation of an ETF approval.
Its currently underdeveloped futures market infrastructure further complicates Solana’s viability as an ETF candidate.
Its filings were unprecedented because the network did not have a previously established futures market. This factor was crucial in determining an ETF approval for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
“The lack of CME futures and institutional frameworks comparable to BTC/ETH could influence [the SEC’s] evaluation,” Lai said.
He added that the proliferation of meme tokens minted on Solana could present themselves as a potential roadblock.
“Market reactions reflect Solana’s emergence as the primary driver of this cycle, with DEX volumes exceeding $100 billion and dominating major aggregators. However, I believe the temporary nature of trending themes suggests continued volatility. While technological advancement and growing institutional adoption may provide stronger foundations, we need to maintain perspective on the cyclical nature of crypto trends,” Lai said.
This more recent development in Solana’s attraction also brings its set of downsides.
Meme Coin Influence and Regulatory Concerns
The expanding meme coin market on Solana partially explains its popularity. Platforms like Pump.fun allow anyone to launch their tokens, and this design has even led to celebrities launching their tokens on the platform.
More recently, political figures like Donald Trump and Argentine president Javier Milei have also launched meme tokens on Solana platforms. Yet, these activities have proven to be high-risk. In many cases, meme coin investments have caused smaller retailers millions of dollars in losses.
Benkitis said that the SEC might frown upon the speculative nature of these trading activities.
“While an ETF approval could unlock liquidity opportunities, the market’s heavy dependence on speculative sentiment calls for a measured and cautious approach,” he said.
With so many considerations, approving a Solana ETF in 2025 is far from guaranteed. The SEC’s eventual decision will be a defining moment for the network and the broader crypto industry.
Garantex, a Russian crypto exchange under US sanctions, accused Tether of attacking the Russian crypto market.
According to the exchange’s Telegram announcement, Tether has frozen several USDT wallets on the exchange, which are worth over $28 million.
USDT Holders in Russia are At Risk
Garantex stated that USDT stablecoins in user wallets are at risk. Several USDT funds held by users in the exchange have been frozen. To manage the situation, Garantex has temporarily halted all operations.
Co-founder Sergey Mendeleev stated that this action disrupts Russia’s international trade carried out with digital assets.
“We temporarily suspend the provision of all services, including cryptocurrency findings, for a while while we are solving this problem with the whole team. We fight and don’t give up!” Garantex wrote on Telegram.
Further, he warned that the freeze creates difficulties for businesses and financial institutions that depend on crypto to settle international payments.
“While we discussed easing tensions and relaxing sanctions, we were deceived once again. Suddenly, the paradigm shifted: earlier, sanctions were merely glossed over, but now they block without trial or investigation. This is exactly the reality I have warned about for at least two years, yet neither the Central Bank nor the professional community listened,” — wrote Mendeleev.
Mendeleev stressed that the disruption affects Russia’s economic engagements on a broader scale. Western sanctions have forced digital currencies to play a vital role in international settlements. The current incident further complicates those processes.
The exchange’s claim draws attention to mounting regulatory pressure and a growing conflict between US authorities and market players operating in Russian jurisdictions.
Garantex Sanction Explained
State Duma deputy Anton Gorelkin added his perspective on the incident. He pointed out that Tether’s decision reflects a broader trend of pressure applied by Western regulators on crypto infrastructure amid ongoing sanctions.
Gorelkin highlighted that centralized stablecoins like USDT remain particularly exposed to outside control. Despite the blockade, he expressed confidence that it is impossible to completely shut down the Russian crypto market.
Officials charged the exchange with failing to comply with anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing rules. US agencies claimed that Garantex played a role in laundering over $100 million linked to hacker groups and dark web transactions.
In March of last year, law enforcement agencies from the US and UK began an investigation into Garantex. They reviewed crypto transactions totaling more than $20 billion made using USDT.
This probe reflects the ongoing tensions between regulators and crypto operators in sanctioned environments.
