Ripple’s XRP has managed a 3% price increase over the past week, in line with the broader crypto market rally that has lifted several major coins.
However, despite the bullish momentum, a key technical indicator is flashing a warning signal that could undermine XRP’s recent gains.
XRP’s Rally on Thin Ice
XRP’s Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)—an indicator that measures the volume-weighted flow of money into and out of an asset—has been trending downward even as the token’s price has continued to rise. This momentum indicator is currently at 0.03 and trending toward the center line.
The trend forms a bearish divergence between XRP’s price action and CMF, a warning sign of weakening momentum. Typically, the CMF tracks the flow of capital into an asset, so when it declines while prices rise, it suggests that the rally lacks solid support from sustained demand.
In other words, XRP traders may be buying based on short-term hype rather than long-term conviction. This means its recent gains are vulnerable to being erased, especially if broader market sentiment shifts or profit-taking sets in.
Further, the altcoin’s negative Balance of Power (BoP) supports this bearish outlook. As of this writing, the indicator is at -0.76, highlighting the weakening demand for XRP.
When an asset’s BoP is negative like this, sellers exert more influence over price action than buyers. It is a bearish signal that indicates further downside pressure on XRP if the trend continues.
XRP Faces Crucial Test at $2 Support
XRP currently trades at $2.18, holding above support formed at $2.03. If demand weakens further, XRP bulls might be unable to defend this support level, causing the altcoin to fall back below $2, to trade at $1.61.
However, a resurgence in new demand for XRP will invalidate this bearish outlook. In that scenario, its price could rally to $2.29 and charge toward $2.50.
The arrival of an altcoin season is often tied to Bitcoin’s performance. As money flows out of BTC and into altcoins, this triggers a rise in altcoin prices.
However, this cycle is delayed by factors beyond Bitcoin. One such factor is the recent surge in token generation events (TGEs).
Rise in TGEs – A Boon or a Bane?
In the past four and a half months, 45 new tokens have launched, with most failing to provide decent returns. Many tokens launched in 2025 failed to sustain growth post-listing, raising the question of whether this trend is driven by bearish macroeconomic conditions or the lack of fundamental value in these tokens. This is turning altcoins into speculative assets driven by momentum.
Talking to BeInCrypto, Vincent Liu, CIO of Kronos Research, shed light on this question.
“Relentless token launches, especially meme coins, diluted liquidity and fragmented investor attention. Simultaneously, macro headwinds like rising interest rates and a global shift to risk-off sentiment throttled speculative capital. Tokens lacking utility, clear roadmaps, or sustainable ecosystems were quickly repriced in line with growing investor skepticism,” Liu explained.
One of the few successful launches with strong ROI has been Solayer (LAYER). Since its February launch, LAYER has posted an 88% rise and is currently trading just under $2.00.
Altcoin Season Delayed, But Narratives Continue to Grow
The altcoin season index currently stands at 16, indicating Bitcoin’s dominance. Rapid token launches and post-listing failures are contributing to the delay.
However, Liu noted that niche categories like AI-linked tokens continue to show strong demand despite the broader market conditions.
“While a full-fledged altcoin season hasn’t materialized, niche categories like AI-integrated meme coins and emerging tech narratives have shown signs of strength. Many token launches still suffer from inflated valuations and weak fundamentals, diluting capital and stalling broader momentum. Yet AI-linked narratives continue to attract attention not just from crypto natives, but also from traditional finance. Altcoin season isn’t gone, it’s simply evolving,” Liu said.
Despite the delay, the potential for an altcoin season remains. However, 75% of the top 50 altcoins would need to outperform Bitcoin to signal a true shift, which is not the case at the moment.
Arthur Cheong, founder and CEO of DeFiance Capital, recently raised concerns over TGEs. He highlighted the risk of projects and market makers working together to inflate token prices artificially. This can distort market behavior and undermine investor confidence.
“You don’t know whether the price is a result of organic demand and supply or simply due to projects and market makers colluding to fix the price for other objectives. Absolutely bizarre that CEXs are turning a blind eye to this and altcoin markets are becoming more and more like a lemon market where confidence gets lesser,” Cheong tweeted.
Responding to this, Vincent Liu suggested that there needs to be reforms in the way that token launches are approached.
“…the issue of artificially inflated token prices before launch presents a growing concern. While these short-term surges might attract initial attention, they often undermine long-term investor confidence. To mitigate this, the industry must champion greater transparency around partner agreements, listing criteria, and pre-launch disclosures. Clear communication about a project’s structure, roadmap, and market cap expectations is essential to building a sustainable and trustworthy ecosystem,” Liu said.
Liu believes addressing this problem requires collaboration from market makers, centralized exchanges (CEXs), and investors.
“By conducting thorough research into the fundamentals of new projects, investors can protect themselves from significant losses and identify valuable tokens in the long run,” Liu concluded.
Crypto options expiry this week concerns over $3.5 billion in notional value. The high volume of expiring options isexpected to create short-term volatility in the market.
These expiring options coincide with rising global uncertainty amid geopolitical tensions, so traders and investors should prepare for the impact.
Crypto Markets to See $3.5 Billion in Bitcoin, Ethereum Options Expire
With over $3.5 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring today, data on Deribit shows BTC contracts account for most of it. Today, 27,959 Bitcoin option contracts will expire, sending up to $2.9 billion in notional value down the drain.
The maximum pain level is $106,500, slightly above Bitcoin’s price as of press time. Option traders will experience the most losses at this level.
Meanwhile, these expiring Bitcoin contracts have a put-to-call ratio of 0.91, highlighting the prevalence of Call (purchase) options rather than Put (sale) options. This means traders are leaning bullish rather than bearish.
At the same time, 246,849 Ethereum contracts will expire today, accounting for $617.6 million in notional value.
According to data on Deribit, these expiring options have a put-to-call ratio of 1.14. The maximum pain level or strike price is $2,650. Notably, Ethereum’s put-to-call ratio is above 1, showing a prevalence of Put (sale) options rather than Call (purchase) options.
Ethereum’s put and call options distribution suggests a market tilt toward protecting against ETH price drops, based on the higher put-call ratio of 1.14.
According to the Max Pain theory in crypto options trading, as options near their expiration, the underlying asset’s price tends to gravitate toward the strike price. Here, the greatest number of options (calls and puts) would expire worthless, causing maximum financial loss (or “pain”) to option holders.
This theory hinges on the assumption that market makers or large institutional players (smart money), often on the other side of options trades, may influence the underlying asset’s price through trading or hedging activities. Their actions push prices toward the max pain points.
It happens as market makers profit when options expire worthless, as they collect the premiums without paying out.
Ethereum Upside Flows Are Strong Heading Into Expiry
Greeks.live analysts highlight bearish dominance, as seen with multiple traders shifting to buy puts for protection. Deribit notes that ETH upside flows are heading into expiry.
“ETH upside flows are strong heading into expiry. Will traders keep chasing it after Friday, or is this where it cools off?” Deribit posed.
This contrasts with Ethereum’s max pain point, indicating potential volatility given that option expiries often trigger price swings as traders adjust positions. This is especially true when flows defy max pain expectations.
“The group appears divided on market direction, with bears dominating the conversation as multiple traders have shifted to buying puts for protection,” analysts at Greeks.live wrote, highlighting market sentiment.
Analysts at Greeks.live attempt to explain the Put protection strategy, which is displayed among traders who are hedging for downside risk.
According to the analysts, traders are buying put spreads and protective puts, positioning themselves strategically after months of bullish sentiment.
High volatility environment is creating attractive opportunities for put protection, with traders anticipating two standard deviation events and significant price wicks from unexpected news catalysts,” they added.
Bitcoin recently broke above the $111,000 mark, setting a new all-time high. However, data across major exchanges suggests that traders are growing increasingly wary of a sustained rally.
CoinGlass data indicate that over 53% of Bitcoin positions are currently short, meaning a majority of traders are betting on a price drop. By contrast, just 47.43% of active positions are long.
Most Traders Turn Bearish Despite Bitcoin’s Recent All-Time High
The pattern is mirrored on Binance, where short trades make up 54.05% of open interest, compared to 45.95% for longs.
The sentiment shift is reinforced by the latest move from prominent crypto whale James Wynn, who reversed his bullish stance after a multi-million dollar loss.
The trader closed his long exposure at a loss of $13.39 million, with liquidation unfolding in under an hour on May 25.
He has since opened a short position of 3,523 BTC—valued at approximately $377 million—at an entry price of $107,128. The new trade carries a liquidation threshold near $118,380.
James Wynn Bitcoin Bet on Hyperliquid. Source: X/EmberCN
Market analysts have suggested that Wynn’s pivot reflects broader signs of exhaustion in the current bull cycle.
According to blockchain analytics firm Alhpractal, short-term holders (STHs) have begun distributing coins. Historically, a decline in STH supply often signals that Bitcoin is approaching a local top.
The firm noted that the Short-Term Holder Realized Price currently stands at $94,500, which is the last strong support before losses set in.
Alphractal stated that while Bitcoin previously hit record highs under similar conditions in 2021, it warned that the current cycle may be nearing exhaustion.
It added that several macro indicators and historical halving trends point to a possible correction after October 2025.
