XRP ETF Forecast: Standard Chartered Gives $8 Price Target, But Bitfinex Sees Limited Demand | US Crypto News

Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.]

Grab a coffee as we delve into market sentiment about XRP ETFs (exchange-traded funds) in the US. As prospects for this financial instrument continue to grow, experts have weighed in on the possible impact on Ripple’s XRP token.

Crypto News of the Day: XRP ETF Inflows to Reach $8.3 Billion, Standard Chartered Predicts

There has been much chatter this week in crypto about XRP ETFs, ranging from false rumors and reports to delays in key decisions. However, one thing appears certain: the conversation is growing more than ever.

The recent decision to approve ProShares leveraged futures XRP ETF provided optimism; now, anticipation is building.

In a recent US Crypto News publication, ETF analyst Eric Balchunas indicated they have raised their odds to 85%. Based on this, analysts offer diverging outlooks on how such a product might perform.

“XRP price could rise to $12.23 or $22.20 after ETF Approval if XRP ETFs Get 15% to 30% of Bitcoin ETF Inflows,” a popular account on X shared.

BeInCrypto data shows that XRP was trading for $2.22 as of this writing, down by almost 1% in the last 24 hours.

Against this backdrop, BeInCrypto contacted Standard Chartered for a commentary. The bank’s head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, said it was challenging to predict precise inflow figures.

However, he indicated that comparative data from Europe could provide some guidance.

“The amount of eventual inflows to XRP ETFs is difficult to estimate. However, Bitwise has listed ETPs in Germany for XRP, Solana, Litecoin, BTC, and ETH, which may provide an apples-for-apples comparison,” Kendrick told BeInCrypto.

Drawing on his prediction of how an XRP ETF could perform and the associated impact on XRP price, Kendrick compared Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other altcoins.

Citing Bitwise data, the Standard Chartered executive noted that altcoins garner a larger percentage of ETP (exchange-traded product) net asset value (NAV) as a percentage of coin market capitalization than Bitcoin and Ethereum.

However, he acknowledged that this could be because fewer ETPs are available for altcoins. Kendrick added that NAV-to-market-cap ratios from already approved US spot ETFs provide a useful benchmark.

Based on these assessments, Geoff Kendrick projected that a US-listed spot XRP ETF could attract as much as $8.3 billion in inflows within its first year.

“Of the US spot ETFs approved so far, NAV as a percentage of market cap is 3% for Ethereum and just under 6% for Bitcoin. At current XRP market cap, that would imply a range of $4.4 billion to $8.3 billion as a future total NAV measure for an XRP ETF, which seems like a reasonable target range for inflows in the first 12 months,” Kendrick added.

Kendrick Sees Ripple Price at $8, Bitfinex Analysts Question Investor Interest for XRP ETFs

The Standard Chartered executive said he expects XRP price gains to keep pace with Bitcoin price growth targets.

As indicated in a recent US Crypto News publication, the bank sees Bitcoin’s price rising to $120,000 in Q2, $200,000 by the end of 2025, and $500,000 by 2028.

He forecasted the Ripple price to rise to $8 by 2026, contingent on spot XRP ETF approvals in the US. This would constitute a 260% surge above the current price of $2.22.

“In real terms, XRP inflation is currently 6%, versus 0.8% for Bitcoin. As such, we target the XRP-USD price levels of $5.50 at end-2025, $8.00 at end-2026, $10.40 at end-2027, $12.50 at end-2028 and $12.25 at end-2029,” Kendrick explained.

Meanwhile, analysts at Bitfinex caution against optimism, saying that investor interest in a US-based spot XRP ETF may not match that witnessed in Bitcoin ETFs.

“We expect limited inflows into an XRP ETF as some investors may choose to broaden their exposure across available crypto ETFs. However it is unlikely to see the level of flows experienced by Bitcoin,” Bitfinex analysts told BeInCrypto.

The contrasting assessments reflect broader uncertainty over how altcoin ETFs might perform in a regulated US market.

Bitcoin’s dominance and changing regulatory attitudes toward digital assets still heavily influence the crypto market in the US.

So far, Grayscale, Wisdom Tree, Bitwise, Canary, and 21Shares have filed for XRP ETF approvals with the SEC. Bitwise’s application received official acknowledgment on February 18, triggering several timelines for approving, denying, or extending the application.

The final deadline is October 12, 240 days after official receipt. This date is equivalent to the ‘final deadline’ of January 10, 2024, for BTC ETF approvals, the day they were approved.

However, with other applications beyond XRP ETF pending approval, including Solana and Litecoin, Kendrick noted that other applications in the pipeline could affect the timeline for XRP ETF approval.

“Litecoin seems most likely to progress the fastest, providing early insight into how the new SEC leadership will treat altcoin ETFs,” Kendrick said.

As a hard fork of Bitcoin, Litecoin could already be viewed by the SEC as a commodity rather than a security. According to Kendrick, its similarity to Bitcoin may make it conceptually easier for investors to understand.

This aligns with Balchunas’ forecast that Litecoin ETF could take precedence over a Solana ETF.

“We expect a wave of cryptocurrency ETFs next year, albeit not all at once. First out is likely the BTC + ETH combo ETFs, then probably Litecoin (because it is a fork of BTC, [therefore it’s a] commodity), then HBAR (because it’s not labeled security), and then XRP/Solana (which have been labeled securities in pending lawsuits),” Balchunas stated.

For now, data on Polymarket shows a 39% chance that XRP ETFs will be approved by July 31 and a 79% chance by December 31.

Chart of the Day

The charts compare the NAV (Net Asset Value) in USD for Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Litecoin via Bitwise ETPs and US spot ETFs.

Figure 12 (left) shows Bitwise ETPs, highlighting Bitcoin’s dominance, while Figure 13 (right) focuses on US spot ETFs, with Bitcoin again leading.

Byte-Sized Alpha

Here’s a summary of more crypto news to follow today:

• Bitcoin price is on track to hit $100,000 as exchange inflows drop to a 7-year low, signaling reduced sell-side pressure.
• Kraken posted $472 million in Q1 2025 revenue, up 19% YoY, fueled by BTC volatility and 29% trading volume growth.
• Ethereum risks losing developers to Solana, which is gaining momentum due to better startup support and a streamlined user experience.
• Immutable (IMX) surges 15%, with bullish sentiment supported by a rising long/short ratio above 1.
• Meteora proposes allocating 25% of the MET token supply to Liquidity Rewards and TGE Reserve, ensuring liquidity and token support post-launch.
• BOOP’s market cap soared past $500 million shortly after launch, driven by meme coin hype and major Solana investor interest.
• Kraken uncovered a North Korean hacker posing as a job candidate, advancing through hiring to gather intel on infiltration tactics.

Crypto Equities Pre-Market Overview

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