Amid the ongoing tariff war, Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap, is poised for a massive price crash due to its bearish price action. In recent days, BTC appears to be consolidating within a tight range. However, upon closer examination, it seems to have formed a bearish head and shoulders pattern on the four-hour time frame.
Current Price Momentum
It seems like the market isn’t reacting to any positive news. Earlier, following Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s bold statement, BTC along with major assets began to rebound, but the upside momentum later faded and all gains were lost. Currently, BTC is trading near the $82,500 level and has recorded a price decline of over 1.10% in the past 24 hours. During the same period, its trading volume dropped by 50%, indicating lower participation from traders and investors due to notable market volatility.
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis and Upcoming Levels
According to expert technical analysis, with the recent price decline, BTC is heading toward the neckline of the bearish head and shoulders pattern.
Source: Trading View
Based on recent price action and historical patterns, if this momentum continues and BTC breaches the neckline at the $81,500 level, there is a strong possibility it could decline by 4% to reach the $78,200 level in the near future.
As of now, the asset is trading below the 200 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on both the daily and four-hour time frames, indicating a strong downtrend and weak momentum.
Traders typically wait for a price jump to short the asset, which explains the recent price spike and subsequent drop within less than 24 hours.
$175 Million Worth of BTC Outflow
Despite the bearish outlook, investors and long-term holders seem to be accumulating the asset, as reported by the on-chain analytics firm Coinglass.
Source: Coinglass
Data from spot inflow/outflow reveals that exchanges have witnessed an outflow of approximately $175 million worth of BTC over the past 24 hours. Such outflow during a bearish market sentiment suggests potential accumulation.
While this can create buying pressure and trigger an upside rally, it typically occurs during a bull run.
After weeks-long bearish trend, the crypto market is showing good signs of recovery, especially as the Bitcoin price regained support above $90k. Although the prime days are yet pending, the macroeconomic events like the Trump tariff pause and the potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal could bring positive results. Let’s discuss.
Crypto Market Trends Recover amid Russia-Ukraine War End Anticipation
Donald Trump’s election win acted as the biggest bullish trend for the crypto market. Bitcoin and altcoin grew multipfolds, reaching new highs. However, the inauguration and past events like Trump’s tariff introduction brought bears’ dominance, crashing the digital assets.
Only now have the trends begun to return, resulting in crypto price rallies. The US-China trade war pause and Trump’s push for the Ukraine-Russia peace deal are influencing the recovery.
As a result, the Bitcoin price surged to $94.3k, making it the 5th biggest asset in the world, and the total market cap reached $2.97T. Moreover, the cryptocurrency market sentiment recovered to neutral from fear, but there’s more to go.
This could be just the start of the massive bull run, which is due amid these macroeconomic events. However, Trump claims that Ukraine and Russia are “very close to a deal,” per BBC reports.
Donald Trump Meets Ukrainian Prime Minister
During his campaign era, Donald Trump claimed that he could end the Ukraine-Russia war quickly, but later called it a joke. Notably, the plan seems to be in action as Steve Witkoff recently met Putin in Moscow and discussed Washington’s peace plan. Trump revealed that the major points are agreed upon, but the details are still missing.
Now, before the Pope Francis funeral in Rome on Saturday, Trump met Zleneskyy privately at St. Peter’s Basilica for 15 minutes. Both sides have revealed the meeting to be ‘very productive.’ Interestingly, this was their first meeting since February’s white house tension.
This confirms that the Ukraine-Russia peace deal is in process, but the Trump administration also hints that they could walk away if talks fail soon.
Crypto Market Reaction Would Be Bullish If the Russia-Ukraine War Ends
The cryptocurrency market crashed with the Russia-Ukraine war, which started in the 2000s, but escalated in 2021. BTC price crashed below $35k from $43k, and the rest of the altcoins tumbled severely, driving the investor’s fearful sentiments. An opposite reaction could come with the Russia-Ukraine peace deal.
Experts claim that the peace agreement would boost investor confidence, pushing the Bitcoin price to $120k and higher. The war’s end would bring a serious bullish crypto market trend, especially as the SEC seems to favor crypto regulation, adoption is rising, and much more. However, such Bitcoin price predictions are just anticipated; the results may vary.
The crypto market shows positive signs in the second half of April 2025. Several divergence signals have appeared, suggesting a potential recovery for Bitcoin and altcoins.
Divergence is a key concept in data analysis. It happens when the values of two metrics suddenly shift and move in opposite directions compared to their previous trend. This often signals a change in price momentum. Based on expert analysis and market data, this article highlights five major divergence signals—three for Bitcoin and two for altcoins—to help investors better understand the market outlook.
3 Divergence Signals in April Point to a Bitcoin Price Rally
Historically, Bitcoin and the DXY Index (US Dollar Index) move in opposite directions. When DXY rises, Bitcoin tends to fall, and vice versa. But from September 2024 to March 2025, Bitcoin and the DXY moved in the same direction.
Joe Consorti, Head of Growth at TheyaBitcoin, noted that Bitcoin started decoupling from the US dollar after the announcement of the sweeping tariff regime. A chart from his post shows that in April, while the DXY fell sharply from 103.5 to 98.5, Bitcoin surged from around $75,000 to over $91,000.
Divergence Between BTC And USD. Source: Joe Consorti
This divergence may reflect investors turning to Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset amid global economic uncertainty caused by the tariffs.
“Bitcoin has been diverging from the US dollar since the US announced its sweeping tariff regime. Amidst this global economic reordering, gold and bitcoin are shining,” Joe Consorti predicted.
Another key divergence comes from Tuur Demeester, an advisor to Blockstream. He pointed out a separation between Bitcoin and the NASDAQ Index, which represents tech stocks. Historically, Bitcoin closely followed the NASDAQ due to its ties to tech and macroeconomic sentiment.
But in April 2025, Bitcoin started showing independent growth. It no longer moves in sync with the NASDAQ. While some, like Ecoinometrics, argue that this divergence isn’t necessarily bullish, Demeester remains optimistic.
Divergence Between Bitcoin And NASDAQ. Source: Ecoinometrics
“Bitcoin divergence” and “Bitcoin decoupling” will be dominant headlines for 2025,” Tuur Demeester said.
Specifically, NASDAQ has faced downward pressure from interest rate concerns and slowing growth. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown strength, with significant price gains. This suggests that Bitcoin is cementing its role as a standalone asset less tied to traditional markets.
Data from CryptoQuant highlights another divergence—this time in investor behavior. Long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH, those who’ve held BTC for over 155 days) began accumulating again after the recent local peak.
In contrast, short-term holders (STH) are selling off. This divergence often signals the early stage of a re-accumulation phase and hints at a future price rebound.
Bitcoin Long Term Holder Net Position Change. Source: CryptoQuant.
“Why This Divergence Matters? LTH behavior is generally associated with macro conviction, not speculative moves. STH activity is often emotional and reactive, driven by price volatility and fear. When LTH accumulation meets STH capitulation, it tends to signal early stages of a re-accumulation phase,” IT Tech, an analyst at CryptoQuant, predicted.
Altcoin Recovery Round the Corner
Divergence signals also appeared for altcoins, indicating a positive short-term outlook.
Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Realvision, pointed to a key divergence using the “365-day new lows” indicator. This metric tracks how many altcoins hit their lowest point in the past year.
In April 2025, although altcoin market capitalization dropped to a new low, the number of altcoins hitting new 365-day lows decreased significantly. Historically, this pattern often precedes a recovery in altcoin market caps.
“Divergence shows downside momentum was exhausted,” Jamie Coutts said.
In simpler terms, fewer altcoins hitting rock bottom means less panic-selling. It suggests that negative market sentiment is weakening. At the same time, rising prices show renewed buying interest. These factors hint that altcoins may be gearing up for a recovery—or even an “altcoin season,” a period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin.
Another technical divergence comes from the RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the Bitcoin Dominance chart (BTC.D), noted by analyst Merlijn The Trader. This chart reflects Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market capitalization.
“Bearish Divergence Spotted on BTC.D. Higher highs on the chart. Lower highs on RSI. This setup doesn’t lie. Altcoin strength is brewing. Watch for trade setups,” Merlijn said.
This pure technical divergence suggests that BTC.D might soon undergo a strong correction. If that happens, investors may shift more capital into altcoins.
The altcoin market cap (TOTAL3) rebounded by 20% in April, from $660 billion to over $800 billion. The divergence signals discussed above suggest that this recovery could continue.
Nano Labs is issuing $500 million in private convertible notes to form a $1 billion BNB reserve, aiming for up to 10% of BNB’s supply.
This substantial initiative signals a new milestone in institutional involvement with public blockchain assets.
Nano Labs Sets Ambitious BNB Acquisition Target
Nano Labs has signed a $500 million convertible notes subscription agreement, according to an official announcement. The notes mature in 360 days, earn no interest before maturity, and are convertible to Class A common stock at $20 per share. Proceeds will fund the purchase of $1 billion in BNB, the native coin of its namesake blockchain.
Nano Labs hopes to acquire up to 10% of BNB’s circulating supply.
“The Agreement marks an important step in the Company’s strategic growth. As part of this initiative, Nano Labs will conduct a thorough assessment of the security and value of BNB. In the initial phase, the Company plans to acquire US$1 billion worth of BNB via convertible notes and private placements. Over the long term, Nano Labs aims to hold 5% to 10% of BNB’s total circulating supply,” Nano Labs said.
This action reflects a growing institutional appetite for significant exposure to public blockchain assets.
The company stated that the new reserve will target five to ten percent of BNB’s circulating supply. If fully realized, this would mark one of the largest direct institutional purchases of a public blockchain’s native coin.
The notes’ flexible structure—no interest before maturity and an equity conversion feature—offers investors options. Depending on market developments, they can convert to equity later or redeem principal.
BNB’s Public Independence Drives Institutional Interest
Meanwhile, Changpeng Zhao (CZ), the co-founder of Binance, highlighted BNB’s status as an asset separate from Binance Holdings or its exchange. This distinction is increasingly important as institutions move to secure significant BNB positions, signaling a deeper market understanding.
“BNB is a public blockchain native coin, not ‘linked’ to Binance Holdings Ltd or Binance CEX..”Binance founder CZ wrote on X
Therefore, any institution—including Nano Labs—may freely purchase and use BNB, independent of Binance, the exchange.
“I heard about a few different companies doing this. So far, none are driven by me/us. But we are extremely supportive,” CZ said.
For both investors and the industry, BNB’s public chain status builds credibility among institutions seeking diversified blockchain exposure. It also shows that major asset acquisitions are made by external parties, rather than platform insiders or founders.
This independence contributes to regulatory clarity and market trust, encouraging other entities to pursue similar moves.
Nano Labs’ initiative sets a new standard for institutional activity in blockchain assets. If the company acquires its target of 10% of BNB’s circulating supply, market liquidity and valuation could shift considerably. Single-institution accumulations often impact market dynamics, and analysts will closely watch BNB’s supply concentration.
The convertible notes offer another way for investors to gain indirect BNB exposure, bridging traditional finance and blockchain markets. This could draw more conventional capital into digital assets.
Market watchers will monitor Nano Labs’ progress in acquiring BNB and any market changes that result. Meanwhile, Nano Labs is establishing itself as a leader in institutional investment within the public blockchain asset space.
