The old financial market adage “Sell in May and go away” has long been a guiding principle for investors looking to avoid potential summer volatility. However, some analysis suggests that this adage may not hold true for Bitcoin in the coming month.
Several arguments indicate significant differences in the market landscape for 2025. These factors suggest that May could see price increases instead of decreases.
4 Reasons Why Selling in May Could Be a Big Mistake in 2025
M2 measures the amount of money circulating in the economy. It includes cash, savings deposits, and highly liquid assets. Historically, M2 has shown a strong correlation with Bitcoin prices. When central banks such as the FED, ECB, or PBoC increase the money supply, Bitcoin tends to rise.
Bitcoin And Global M2 (90-day Lag). Source: Kaduna
Kaduna shared a chart that confirms this trend will continue in 2025. According to this pattern, May could be a breakout month for Bitcoin. While not all analysts agree with this view, investors are increasingly accepting it, creating positive sentiment in the market.
“Sell in May and go away would be a huge mistake,” Kaduna emphasized.
Second, historical data backs up Kaduna’s outlook. According to Coinglass, Bitcoin has delivered an average return of over 7.9% in May over the past 12 years. Although financial markets often experience turbulence in summer, Bitcoin doesn’t always follow that pattern.
Bitcoin Price Performance by Month. Source: Coinglass
Instead, May often shows positive performance. It’s not the strongest month, but it outperforms June and September. One investor on X observed that since 2010, Bitcoin has seen nine green Mays and six red ones.
The original proverb comes from the stock market, where historical data shows it works better for equities, not necessarily for crypto.
Another major point supporting Kaduna’s thesis is the surge in inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. BeInCrypto recently reported that spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted fresh investor demand on Monday. They recorded net inflows of $591.29 million and extended their winning streak to seven consecutive days.
Notably, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led the way. It recorded the largest inflow among its peers, attracting $970.93 million in one day, bringing its total accumulated net inflows to $42.17 billion.
Total Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflow. Source: SosoValue
This increase reflects growing investor confidence and long-term optimism for Bitcoin in 2025. That sentiment may well carry into May, giving further upward momentum to Bitcoin’s price.
Finally, Bitcoin is clearly decoupling from the S&P 500, which historically has signaled large price surges.
Investor arndxt noted this divergence. BeInCrypto also reported a growing disconnect between Bitcoin and the NASDAQ index. Bullish analysts interpret this as a sign that Bitcoin behaves more like an independent asset, less tied to traditional markets.
“The old ‘Sell in May and go away’ mantra doesn’t apply the same way for crypto, liquidity pressures are easing, and this time, May could mark the beginning of an acceleration, not a pause.” – arndxt predicted.
M2 Global, Bitcoin Price, and S&P500 Index Correlation. Source: arndxt
Strong support from M2 correlation, positive May performance in Bitcoin’s history, large ETF inflows, and decoupling from traditional indexes suggest that selling Bitcoin in May 2025 could be a serious mistake.
However, investors should remain cautious. Key data from the Fed, such as CPI, interest rates, and updates on trade tensions, could still introduce uncertainty into May’s outlook.
Cardano (ADA) is showing signs of life despite dropping 3% in the past 24 hours as traders weigh the possibility of a broader recovery. Technical indicators like BBTrend and DMI are flashing mixed signals, hinting that momentum may be fading after a brief surge.
ADA’s BBTrend has flipped into negative territory, while its DMI suggests bulls are gaining ground but haven’t fully taken control. With ADA hovering just above key support levels, the next few sessions will be crucial in determining whether this rally has legs or if another correction is around the corner.
ADA BBTrend Is Fading After Reaching Levels Above 5 Yesterday
Cardano’s BBTrend indicator has flipped into negative territory, currently sitting at -0.02 after reaching a positive peak of 5.28 just a day earlier.
The BBTrend (Bull and Bear Trend) indicator measures the strength and direction of a price trend. Values above +1 typically indicate a strong bullish trend, while readings below -1 signal a strong bearish trend.
For Cardano, this neutral-to-negative reading could mean that upward momentum is fading, increasing the risk of further downside if selling pressure builds in the coming sessions.
Cardano DMI Shows Buyers Are Almost Taking Control
Cardano’s DMI (Directional Movement Index) chart shows that its ADX, which measures trend strength, has dropped to 34.29 from 43.41 yesterday.
While this indicates that the current trend is weakening, the ADX is still well above the key 25 threshold, meaning the market remains in a strong directional move.
The ADX is part of the DMI system, which includes the +DI (positive directional index) and -DI (negative directional index).
The +DI has climbed from 4.68 to 19.19, showing growing bullish interest, while the -DI has sharply dropped from 44.92 to 22.18. This narrowing gap hints at a potential trend reversal or at least a slowing of bearish momentum.
However, since -DI is still slightly above +DI and ADX remains elevated, ADA is technically still in a downtrend — though bulls may be starting to regain some ground.
Is Cardano Getting Ready For A Recovery?
Cardano price is currently attempting a recovery after dipping below the $0.52 mark, a key support level in recent weeks. If buyers manage to confirm their strength and sustain upward momentum, ADA could first test resistance at $0.629.
A successful breakout above that could open the path toward $0.70, and if bullish pressure continues, a further rally to $0.77 may be on the table — levels not seen since early 2024.
However, if ADA fails to hold its current ground and bearish momentum returns, the token risks sliding back below $0.52.
A move toward $0.51 would be the first critical test, and losing that level could push Cardano below the $0.50 threshold for the first time since November 2024.
Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) recorded significant net outflows this week, with institutional investors pulling out nearly $800 million amid market uncertainties.
Despite high expectations for the White House Crypto Summit, Bitcoin ETFs saw their fourth consecutive week of outflows, suggesting that institutional sentiment remains cautious. Over $4.5 billion in net assets have exited the market in the past four weeks.
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs Experience Heavy Outflows
Data on SoSoValue shows US Bitcoin ETFs faced total net outflows of $799.39 million this week after five consecutive days of negative flows.
The largest single-day outflow of the week occurred on Friday, with $409 million withdrawn from Bitcoin ETFs.
Data on Farside Investors corroborates the outlook. It shows that the largest contributors to Friday’s landmark outflows were Ark Invests’ ARKB and Fidelity’s FBTC ETF instruments. They posted $160 million and $154.9 million in negative flows, respectively.
BlackRock’s IBIT and Grayscale’s GBTC followed with $39.9 million and $36.5 million. Meanwhile, the other issuers, save for Bitwise (BITB), recorded zero flows.
Ethereum ETFs also continued their negative trend, logging a second consecutive week of net outflows.
Ethereum ETFs Weekly Net Outflow. Source: SoSoValue
These negative flows come despite anticipation that this would be a bullish week amid White House Crypto Summit hype. The outflows suggest that macroeconomic concerns and strategic market positioning have overshadowed the event’s impact.
Some analysts point to persistent fears over President Trump’s trade tariffs and broader economic instability. These, they say, sour institutional confidence. Specifically, industry experts have highlighted structural shifts in the market as a possible explanation for the ongoing capital flight.
Kyle Chasse recently explained that hedge funds have been exploiting a low-risk arbitrage trade between Bitcoin spot ETFs and CME futures. However, as these trades collapse, liquidity is withdrawn from the market, influencing sell-offs and outflows from crypto investment products.
QCP Capital Explains Crypto Market Reaction
Meanwhile, a recent report from QCP Capital provided additional insight into the market reaction. The firm noted that while the White House Crypto Summit was initially expected to be a key bullish catalyst, President Donald Trump preempted expectations by signing an executive order establishing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and US Digital Asset Stockpile.
Upon the signing, Bitcoin’s price dropped sharply from $90,000 to $85,000 in what analysts called a “sell the news” event. Market participants positioned for a bullish outcome at the summit were caught off guard, leading to a sharp sell-off.
“The knee-jerk reaction lower likely stems from the realization that no actual budget has been allocated for BTC purchases in the near term,” read an excerpt in the QCP report.
This explains Friday’s climax of the week’s Bitcoin ETF outflows. Overall, it’s evident that macroeconomic factors are driving fears among institutional investors, at least for the short term.
Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.
Grab a coffee as we discuss the growing influence of stablecoin issuers in the US Treasury market. With growing institutional adoption and regulatory legitimization of US dollar-pegged stablecoins, experts warn of artificial inflation of demand for the dollar.
Crypto News of the Day: Using Government Debt Instruments To Back Digital Dollars is Risky, Keiser Warns
The influence of stablecoin issuers in the US is growing, so much that Tether, which already issues the USDT stablecoin, plans to launch a US-only stablecoin by 2025. Tether aims to position stablecoins as strategic financial tools under the Trump administration.
Stablecoin supply by issuer in billions of US dollars. Source: Bain & Company
This chart shows Tether’s dominance in the stablecoin market, with overall supply going from $2 billion to more than $200 billion in recent years.
Meanwhile, the US Treasury projects stablecoins could reach a $2 trillion market by 2028, which could attract more players.
Nevertheless, as stablecoin influence in the Treasury market grows, the House Financial Services Committee is concerned.
Perhaps, however, the greater concern is stablecoin issuers’ using Treasury yields to buy Bitcoin. According to experts, this could undermine US government reserves.
A recent US Crypto News publication indicated reports of stablecoin issuers using Treasury yields to buy Bitcoin. Some say this could undermine initiatives like the proposed US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which aims to bolster national holdings of the pioneer crypto.
Growing Influence of Stablecoin Issuers in US Treasuries Market is Concerning, Max Keiser Says
Among them is Bitcoin pioneer Max Keiser, who voiced concerns over the growing influence of stablecoin issuers in the US Treasury market. Keiser warns that their use of government debt instruments to back digital dollars may have broader implications for the global financial system.
As of Q1 2025, Tether reported holding nearly $120 billion in short-term US Treasury securities and reverse repos. This makes it one of the largest non-sovereign holders of American government debt.
Meanwhile, Circle, issuer of USDC, disclosed more than $22 billion in Treasury bills in a February 2025 attestation.
These holdings collateralize dollar-pegged stablecoins, helping issuers maintain liquidity and trust. The issuers benefit from the interest income generated by the bonds.
While this practice is common and legal, Keiser contends it contributes to deeper systemic issues tied to fiat currency dynamics.
“This is exactly why the stablecoin issuers are buying Bitcoin, this is called a speculative attack on the US dollar. Feeding the debt spiral with fiat stablecoins, buying treasury bills, and then investing the interest into Bitcoin, allowing the stablecoin issuers to buy billions in Bitcoin for free,” Keiser told BeInCrypto.
Stablecoin issuers purchase US debt on secondary markets and earn interest, which they may or may not deploy into digital assets like Bitcoin. Keiser is critical of the broader financial architecture underpinning stablecoins.
“Issuing new stablecoins backed by US T-bills printed out of thin air is not a monetary system, but a financial hologram,” he said.
US Treasury bills are debt instruments issued by the federal government and sold to investors, including private companies like Tether and Circle, through regulated markets. These stablecoin issuers tokenize existing fiat currency held in reserve.
Keiser elaborated on what he sees as the long-term consequences of this model.
“It’s a speculative attack by private banks. It is financial repression, pushing rates down as ‘malinvestments’ increase. It is rinse and repeat,” he explained.
His critique also extends to the broader outlook for the US dollar, which, according to the Bitcoin pioneer, “is a quick, deadly fix; a USD hospice. Cue the final death throes of the US dollar.”
BeInCrypto has contacted Circle and Tether for comment and will update this article if they respond.
Max Keiser Proposes AI To Invent Novel Security Structures
Keiser also highlighted what he views as an emerging trend. He said high-profile investors and technologists use artificial intelligence (AI) and novel corporate strategies to increase Bitcoin exposure.
The Bitcoin maxi referenced Strategy Executive Chair Michael Saylor and investor-turned-politician Vivek Ramaswamy.
“Financial engineers like Michael Saylor and Vivek Ramaswamy are using AI to invent novel security structures to maximize the Bitcoin Treasury model. Vivek Ramaswamy plans to take his company, Strive Asset Management, public by merging with Asset Entities and starting to accumulate Bitcoin using the model that Saylor’s Strategy has already successfully adopted — using proceeds from stock and debt issuance,” Keiser remarked.
Though no confirmed public filings detailing Ramaswamy’s use of AI in this context, Keiser sees these developments as significant.
“The results are redefining finance globally and adding significantly to the Bitcoin demand. OG’s like myself, who have watched Bitcoin outperform everything for 15 years, are seeing, for the first time, investment strategies that are outperforming Bitcoin, and the implications are profound,” he said
Keiser believes such strategies could push Bitcoin’s market value even higher. He also implied that the extraordinary compounding rates of the past could be extended. This sentiment comes as Bitcoin captures more of the total addressable market and scales even higher price points.
The views expressed are those of Max Keiser and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of BeInCrypto.
Chart of the Day
International holdings of US Treasuries in billions of dollars. Source: Bain & Company
This chart shows that stablecoins have become a large holder in US treasuries.
Byte-Sized Alpha
Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:
