Bitcoin whales have moved just $3.27 billion of BTC to Binance over the past 30 days. This figure marks the lowest whale inflow since November 2024, according to CryptoQuant.
Consequently, this drop signals declining sell-pressure from major holders. Fewer coins entering exchange order books often underpin stronger price support.
Bitcoin Whales Continue Holding
CryptoQuant analyst JA Maartunn explains that during March and November 2024 rallies, whale inflows surged above $6.17 billion and $8.44 billion. Those peaks coincided with sharp pullbacks, as whales locked in gains at higher prices.
Furthermore, subdued whale deposits suggest holders now prefer to retain or relocate coins off-exchange. Many may move BTC into cold storage or over-the-counter venues, reducing visible supply.
Binance Whale Flow Chart. Source: CryptoQuant
As a result, the market faces tighter liquidity. Lower sell-walls on Binance create room for price advances. Traders often view this as a bullish backdrop.
On the price front, Bitcoin recently climbed to about $104,000. That rally found support partly because large-scale sell orders failed to materialize. Last week, CryptoQuant data showed that ‘new Bitcoin whales’ hold most of the capital.
These whales bought at an average price of $91,922, so they likely aim for a much higher selling price.
However, macro factors still influence market direction. Fed policy decisions, regulatory shifts and geopolitical events can trigger sudden supply surges.
In addition, on-chain metrics show long-term holders increasing their positions. Such accumulation often precedes sustained up-moves, as coins effectively vanish from the circulating supply.
Nonetheless, subdued whale activity does not guarantee uninterrupted gains. Retail sentiment, derivatives positioning, and institutional flows can reignite volatility.
Diverging BTC inflows on Binance: Whales vs Retail
“Overall, total inflows across all investor categories remain much lower than what we’ve seen in peak market phases.” – By @Darkfost_Coc
Ultimately, the six-month low in Binance whale inflows reflects tentative confidence among large holders.
If whales maintain this restraint, Bitcoin may find firmer footing above $100,000. Yet market watchers will track any shift in whale behavior for early warning of changing sentiment.
There has been a sharp decline in daily active addresses across Smart Contract Platforms (SCPs) in recent months, raising concerns among investors and developers.
Meanwhile, Ethereum’s Pectra Upgrade could be the turning point, with crypto analyst Jamie Coutts calling the current state a cleansing of the ecosystem.
SCPs See Sharp Decline in Active Users
Jamie Coutts, who built Bloomberg Intelligence’s crypto research product, says this is the worst decline ever recorded in the history of SCPs.
He also notes that it is far worse than the 2022-2023 bear market, with daily active addresses dropping 40.5% in just five months.
“This is the largest usage collapse in SCP history,” wrote Coutts.
Coutts’ analysis provides a deeper look at the broader crypto ecosystem, which is simultaneously witnessing an uptick in global liquidity and an all-time high in stablecoin market cap.
While the sector seems to be experiencing a shakeout, Coutts says this decline does not indicate the death of smart contract platforms. Rather, it is a necessary cleansing of the ecosystem.
The analyst attributes the drop in daily active addresses to several key factors, including the rise of artificial activity.
“Much of the past cycle’s growth was artificial: Usage inflated by bots and Sybil farms, Incentive programs created temporary traction without stickiness. The unwind reflects a cleansing of fake activity, not the death of the sector,” Coutts explains.
The rise of bots and Sybil attacks, where bad actors create multiple fake identities to manipulate a platform’s usage metrics, has artificially inflated the activity numbers across various smart contract platforms.
Now, as these fake users are being weeded out, the real growth potential of SCPs is becoming clearer.
Moreover, this trend suggests that SCPs with weak application ecosystems or limited use cases will face significant valuation compression. This is especially true without stablecoin integration or real-world asset (RWA) applications.
Coutts notes that many SCP tokens risk valuation compression if their platforms do not offer high throughput, low-cost, and real settlement capabilities.
The market will likely reward mature platforms capable of supporting real economic activity. These include stablecoin transactions, payments, and AI-native applications.
“…going forward, value will concentrate in platforms that enable high-throughput, low-cost, real settlement and agentic automation,” he added.
Ethereum Staking Surge Post-Pectra
Interestingly, these predictions align with the recent Ethereum Pectra upgrade, which went live on May 7, 2025.
The Pectra upgrade introduces key features that could help Ethereum, the largest smart contract platform, stay ahead in this playing field. Specifically, the upgrade improves Ethereum’s staking model and validator operations.
CryptoQuant recently indicated a notable spike in ETH staking around the Pectra Upgrade news. Specifically, before the Pectra upgrade news, ETH staking saw a net outflow of around 1.02 million ETH, reflecting uncertainty.
However, after the news, staking rebounded with a 627,000 ETH inflow, signaling renewed market confidence in the Ethereum staking ecosystem.
“Before Pectra News (Nov 16 – Feb 15): ETH staking dropped from ≈34.88M to 33.86M ETH, a net outflow of ~1.02M ETH. This period reflects market uncertainty and mild unwinding of staking positions ahead of the upgrade. After Pectra News (Feb 16 – May 16): Total ETH staked rose from 33.78M to 34.41M ETH — a net inflow of ~627K ETH. Indicates renewed confidence in the staking process following the upgrade,” wrote CryptoQuant analyst Kripto Mevsimi.
ETH Staking before and after Pectra Upgrade news. Source: CryptoQuant
In the same tone, Bohdan Opryshko, co-founder and COO at Everstake, told BeInCrypto that the Pectra upgrade may be Ethereum’s most institution-friendly update. He says the upgrade is the clearest signal that Ethereum is ready for conservative capital.
“For the first time, institutions can stake at scale with operational clarity and reduced complexity. It’s a green light for conservative capital to get involved in native Ethereum staking,” Opryshko told BeInCrypto.
Further, Pectra’s introduction of smart accounts allows Ethereum wallets to execute smart contract logic. This could drive stablecoin integration.
At the same time, it could enhance scalability. This would make Ethereum better suited to handle real economic activities such as payments and financial transactions.
Nevertheless, Coutts highlighted a divergence between price action and network activity, a common phenomenon in the crypto space. While markets stabilize, activity on many SCPs remains stagnant.
Coutts notes that this divergence will not last. More sophisticated capital will increasingly flow toward platforms that anchor real economic behavior, especially via stablecoin flows and payments.
“Markets may be stabilizing, but activity is not,” More sophisticated capital will increasingly rotate toward chains that anchor real economic behavior, especially via stablecoin flows, payments, and AI-native applications,” Coutts says.
Finally, Coutts predicts that a liquidity-driven rally will return, fueled by the significant liquidity expected to enter the system in the coming months.
However, he cautions that the value will likely accrue to a subset of SCPs that can deliver tangible value through real-world applications and stablecoin integration. This sentiment aligns with the structural upgrades brought by Ethereum’s Pectra fork.
According to Bitfinex, Bitcoin’s (BTC) key indicators suggest that the current bull cycle may not have peaked yet, implying a potential continuation of the market rally. However, this optimistic outlook hinges on the stabilization of broader macroeconomic conditions.
The report also noted that short-term dips remain a possibility. Despite this, the broader trend appears positive, especially if Bitcoin can maintain its price above critical technical levels like $95,000.
Will Bitcoin’s Price Rally Continue?
In its latest report, Bitfinex pointed out that Bitcoin’s performance in April exceeded the average return. In April 2025, BTC posted a monthly gain of 14.08%. This was higher than its historical average of 13% and the median return of 7.3%.
“While April has traditionally been a strong seasonal month for BTC, recent years have seen more muted results, making this yearʼs performance stand out more distinctly,” the report read.
Notably, the beginning of the month was challenging for Bitcoin. President Trump’s tariff announcements triggered a sharp downturn in the price, which dropped as low as $74,501.
However, amid dollar depreciation and inflation concerns, Bitcoin found new ground. By the second half of the month, the price rallied again and recovered 32% from its previously low to local highs of $97,900.
This strong close underscored its resilience amid macroeconomic uncertainty and reflected renewed investor optimism in its future potential. On-chain data further reinforced this.
The stability in miner reserves, for instance, signaled confidence in the market. The reserves increased slightly from 1,808,315 BTC in December 2024 to 1,808,674 BTC as of May 5.
Furthermore, the Puell Multiple, an indicator measuring miner revenue relative to historical averages, remains below 2. This implied that miners do not believe the current price is a market peak.
Miners typically sell during market rallies or extremes, but their continued holding despite recent gains supports the idea that Bitcoin may have more room to grow.
“The fact that they are still holding into this recent 32 percent recovery from the April lows supports the idea that, despite recent volatility and macro uncertainty, we may not have seen the final leg of the current bull cycle,” the report stated.
While the long-term outlook remains bullish, Bitfinex underlined a critical short-term challenge for Bitcoin: reclaiming the $95,000 level.
“The $95,000 level—currently under consolidation—is a critical pivot point, acting as the lower boundary of a three-month range that defined market structure between November 2024 and February 2025,” Bitfinex noted.
According to their analysis, flipping the $95,000 level into strong support would indicate a shift in the market towards a bullish trend. Furthermore, it could set the stage for a potential test of its all-time high prices.
“As such, the next several days will likely determine whether the recent strength evolves into a sustained breakout or resolves into a retest of lower support zones,” the report added.
Bitfinex also evaluated the strength of the current Bitcoin rally using the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis. It represents the average acquisition price of coins held by recent investors. According to them, this has
“Historically acted as a dividing line between bullish and bearish market phases.”
This cost basis is currently at $93,340. Bitcoin has successfully broken above this threshold, signaling short-term momentum. However, maintaining this level will be crucial in determining if the rally continues or loses momentum.
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