Balkan Startup Village is turning the Split Technology Park into a full-blown playground for founders, builders, and Web3 misfits who are actually here to get things done. Less talk, more coworking. Less hype, more pitch decks.
You’ll find everything from hands-on workshops and panels (think DePIN, AI, infra, gaming, Web3 marketing: you know, the stuff we all keep saying we need to “double down on”) to casual fireside chats, a solid Demo Day, and yes – a couple of airsoft battles and city tours to balance it out.
No ticket fees. No velvet ropes. Just open space to build, learn, and meet people who are actually building cool stuff, like the folks from Solana ID, Metaplex, Solflare, dReader, Ceres, Kamino Finance, Limechain and a bunch more.
Come early to claim your coworking corner, drop into a few panels, or stick around for Demo Day and catch some of the region’s sharpest startups pitching live. There’s even a podcast zone, career speed dating (still cooking), and a founder’s dinner if you’re lucky enough to score an invite.
They’re tagging along as a media partner, so expect interviews, daily recaps, and behind-the-scenes coverage straight from Split. But honestly, you kind of have to be there.
Bitcoin, the pioneering cryptocurrency, has reshaped how people worldwide perceive finance and money. However, as technology advances and external factors evolve, Bitcoin faces structural challenges that could impact its future existence and growth.
A recent discussion among industry leaders highlighted major risks that could pose a black swan event for Bitcoin’s future.
What Is the Biggest Threat to Bitcoin?
Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment, recently asked, “What is the biggest structural risk to Bitcoin in the next 5-10 years?” This question sparked significant attention and responses from investors, experts, and industry leaders, shedding light on pressing concerns.
One of the most frequently mentioned risks is the threat posed by quantum computing. Nic Carter, general partner at Castle Island Ventures, responded concisely: “Quantum.” His answer received widespread agreement.
“I increasingly agree. That was the catalyst for my thread/question, tbh,” Lyn Alden replied to Nic Carter.
Future quantum computers could break the encryption algorithms securing Bitcoin, such as the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA), which safeguards Bitcoin wallets. If a sufficiently powerful quantum computer emerges, it could forge digital signatures, allowing attackers to steal Bitcoin from any wallet with an exposed public key.
According to research by River, a quantum computer with 1 million qubits could crack a Bitcoin address. Microsoft has claimed that its new chip, named Majorana, is paving the way toward this milestone. This raises an urgent question: how much time does Bitcoin have before it must become quantum-resistant?
While the quantum computing threat is apparent, some argue that a more immediate challenge is whether the Bitcoin community can reach a consensus and implement quantum-resistant solutions in time.
“That’d be not coming to a consensus fast enough on the implementation of a quantum-resistant hashing algorithm,” Stillbigjosh, a former cybersecurity expert at Flutterwave, commented.
However, the founder of BlockTower, Ari Paul, pointed out that Bitcoin’s network faces a more immediate risk as attack costs have dropped significantly.
“Someone shorting 10%+ of BTC’s market cap then spending ~1/10th that to gain 51% control of hash power and mining empty blocks indefinitely, effectively turning off the network. Could fork the PoW algo, but just means the attack on the new network now costs <1/1000th the previous one,” Ari Paul noted.
The Risk of Conflict Between Bitcoin’s Decentralized Nature and Regulatory Oversight
Beyond technical challenges, some investors fear that government and institutional involvement will be Bitcoin’s biggest risk in the next 5-10 years.
“Government and institutional involvement changing the incentives of everything,” Investor Shinobi commented.
Bitcoin Holdings by Governments, Corporations, and Financial Institutions. Source: BitcoinTreasuries
Data from BitcoinTreasuries shows that over the past five years, Bitcoin holdings by private companies, public companies, governments, and ETFs have surged more than 12 times, from 210,000 BTC to over 2.6 million BTC. As a result, regulatory intervention could introduce legal pressures or unwanted changes to Bitcoin’s fundamental operations.
“The biggest structural risk is the friction between Bitcoin’s decentralized ethos and the increasing push for centralized regulatory oversight. In essence, as governments and large institutions tighten control and enforce compliance, the network might be forced to compromise on its core principle,” Investor MisterSpread warned.
The discussion sparked by Lyn Alden’s question suggests risks that could trigger black swan events for Bitcoin. It also reflects the growing awareness among industry leaders and investors about Bitcoin’s systemic risks in an era increasingly shaped by political stability and artificial intelligence.
Bitcoin (BTC) is now one year past its most recent halving, and this cycle is shaping up to be unlike any before it. Unlike previous cycles where explosive rallies followed the halving, BTC has seen a far more muted gain, up just 31%, compared to 436% over the same timeframe in the last cycle.
At the same time, long-term holder metrics like the MVRV ratio are signaling a sharp decline in unrealized profits, pointing to a maturing market with compressing upside. Together, these shifts suggest Bitcoin may be entering a new era, defined less by parabolic peaks and more by gradual, institution-driven growth.
A Year After the Bitcoin Halving: A Cycle Unlike Any Other
This Bitcoin cycle is unfolding noticeably differently than previous ones, signaling a potential shift in how the market responds to halving events.
In earlier cycles—most notably from 2012 to 2016 and again from 2016 to 2020—Bitcoin tended to rally aggressively around this stage. The post-halving period was often marked by strong upward momentum and parabolic price action, largely fueled by retail enthusiasm and speculative demand.
The current cycle, however, has taken a different route. Instead of accelerating after the halving, the price surge began earlier, in October and December 2024, followed by consolidation in January 2025 and a correction in late February.
This front-loaded behavior diverges sharply from historical patterns where halvings typically acted as the catalyst for major rallies.
Several factors are contributing to this shift. Bitcoin is no longer just a retail-driven speculative asset—it’s increasingly seen as a maturing financial instrument. The growing involvement of institutional investors, coupled with macroeconomic pressures and structural changes in the market, has led to a more measured and complex response.
Another clear sign of this evolution is the weakening strength of each successive cycle. The explosive gains of the early years have become harder to replicate as Bitcoin’s market cap has grown. For instance, in the 2020–2024 cycle, Bitcoin had climbed 436% one year after the halving.
In contrast, this cycle has seen a much more modest 31% increase over the same timeframe.
This shift could mean Bitcoin is entering a new chapter. One with less wild volatility and more steady, long-term growth. The halving may no longer be the main driver. Other forces are taking over—rates, liquidity, and institutional money.
The game is changing. And so is the way Bitcoin moves.
Nonetheless, it’s important to note that previous cycles also featured periods of consolidation and correction before resuming their uptrend. While this phase may feel slower or less exciting, it could still represent a healthy reset before the next move higher.
That said, the possibility remains that this cycle will continue to diverge from historical patterns. Instead of a dramatic blow-off top, the outcome may be a more prolonged and structurally supported uptrend—less driven by hype, more by fundamentals.
What Long-Term Holder MVRV Reveals About Bitcoin’s Maturing Market
The Long-Term Holder (LTH) MVRV ratio has always been a solid measure of unrealized profits. It shows how much long-term investors are sitting on before they start selling. But over time, this number is falling.
In the 2016–2020 cycle, LTH MVRV peaked at 35.8. That signaled massive paper profits and a clear top forming. By the 2020–2024 cycle, the peak dropped sharply to 12.2. This happened even as Bitcoin price hit fresh all-time highs.
In the current cycle, the highest LTH MVRV so far is just 4.35. That’s a massive drop. It shows long-term holders aren’t seeing the same kind of gains. The trend is clear: each cycle delivers smaller multiples.
Bitcoin’s explosive upside is compressing. The market is maturing.
Now, in the current cycle, the highest LTH MVRV reading so far has been 4.35. This stark drop suggests long-term holders are experiencing much lower multiples on their holdings compared to previous cycles, even with substantial price appreciation. The pattern points to one conclusion: Bitcoin’s upside is compressing.
This isn’t just a fluke. As the market matures, explosive gains are naturally harder to come by. The days of extreme, cycle-driven profit multiples may be fading, replaced by more moderate—but potentially more stable—growth.
A growing market cap means it takes exponentially more capital to move the price significantly.
Still, it’s not definitive proof that this cycle has already topped out. Previous cycles often included extended periods of sideways movement or modest pullbacks before new highs were reached.
With institutions playing a larger role, accumulation phases could stretch longer. Therefore, peak profit-taking may be less abrupt than in earlier cycles.
However, if the trend of declining MVRV peaks continues, it could reinforce the idea that Bitcoin is transitioning away from wild, cyclical surges and toward a more subdued but structured growth pattern.
The sharpest gains may already be behind, especially for those entering late in the cycle.
