Global stablecoin infrastructure undergoes unprecedented transformation as Hong Kong’s Stablecoin Ordinance approaches August 1 implementation and the U.S. GENIUS Act catalyzes institutional adoption.
Consequently, synchronized regulatory frameworks across both jurisdictions trigger extraordinary market responses and strategic institutional positioning.
Market Euphoria Meets Regulatory Scrutiny
Traditional financial institutions in Hong Kong position themselves within the emerging digital asset infrastructure. Market dynamics reveal significant speculation surrounding regulatory opportunities. Over fifty companies express licensing interest, spanning mainland Chinese state enterprises to technology giants. However, most applicants lack substantive use cases or technical capabilities.
Meanwhile, Hong Kong Monetary Authority Chief Eddie Yue warns against excessive market optimism. Initial licensing approvals will remain highly selective, potentially numbering single digits. Regulatory standards emphasize anti-money laundering compliance and robust technical implementation.
Strategic Positioning Beyond Immediate Gains
Nevertheless, the Stock market performance demonstrates stablecoin narrative power. Companies announcing licensing preparations experience dramatic price increases, with some achieving multi-fold gains. OSL Group, OKX Chain, and Winsway Enterprise lead sector appreciation.
Strategic considerations extend beyond Hong Kong dollar implementations toward yuan-denominated infrastructure. Chinese tech giants JD.com and Ant Group actively lobby Beijing for offshore yuan stablecoin authorization, viewing dollar-dominated markets as strategic threats. These discussions reflect growing urgency around yuan internationalization amid expanding USDT adoption by Chinese exporters.
The licensing framework demands substantial capital commitments and ongoing compliance costs. Companies require HK$25 million paid-up capital alongside comprehensive risk management systems. Market observers anticipate continued speculation until licensing clarity emerges.
US GENIUS Act Catalyzes Global Momentum
The United States provides additional catalyst through President Trump’s July 18 signing of the GENIUS Act. This comprehensive stablecoin legislation establishes dual federal-state chartering pathways and monthly attestation requirements. Market capitalization surged $4 billion within one week, demonstrating institutional confidence in regulatory clarity.
The legislation enables broader institutional participation through bank-chartered stablecoin issuance. Circle, Paxos, and JPMorgan’s Kinexys position themselves as primary beneficiaries under new frameworks. Cross-venue liquidity expansion across Base and Solana networks reflects enhanced compliance infrastructure.
Stablecoins already process more annual settlement volume than Visa and Mastercard combined. With formal regulatory rails established, traditional financial institutions can integrate tokenized cash solutions. The Treasury must publish technical reserve-report schemas within 180 days, while CFTC oversight encompasses automated compliance mechanisms.
Bitcoin, the pioneering cryptocurrency, has reshaped how people worldwide perceive finance and money. However, as technology advances and external factors evolve, Bitcoin faces structural challenges that could impact its future existence and growth.
A recent discussion among industry leaders highlighted major risks that could pose a black swan event for Bitcoin’s future.
What Is the Biggest Threat to Bitcoin?
Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment, recently asked, “What is the biggest structural risk to Bitcoin in the next 5-10 years?” This question sparked significant attention and responses from investors, experts, and industry leaders, shedding light on pressing concerns.
One of the most frequently mentioned risks is the threat posed by quantum computing. Nic Carter, general partner at Castle Island Ventures, responded concisely: “Quantum.” His answer received widespread agreement.
“I increasingly agree. That was the catalyst for my thread/question, tbh,” Lyn Alden replied to Nic Carter.
Future quantum computers could break the encryption algorithms securing Bitcoin, such as the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA), which safeguards Bitcoin wallets. If a sufficiently powerful quantum computer emerges, it could forge digital signatures, allowing attackers to steal Bitcoin from any wallet with an exposed public key.
According to research by River, a quantum computer with 1 million qubits could crack a Bitcoin address. Microsoft has claimed that its new chip, named Majorana, is paving the way toward this milestone. This raises an urgent question: how much time does Bitcoin have before it must become quantum-resistant?
While the quantum computing threat is apparent, some argue that a more immediate challenge is whether the Bitcoin community can reach a consensus and implement quantum-resistant solutions in time.
“That’d be not coming to a consensus fast enough on the implementation of a quantum-resistant hashing algorithm,” Stillbigjosh, a former cybersecurity expert at Flutterwave, commented.
However, the founder of BlockTower, Ari Paul, pointed out that Bitcoin’s network faces a more immediate risk as attack costs have dropped significantly.
“Someone shorting 10%+ of BTC’s market cap then spending ~1/10th that to gain 51% control of hash power and mining empty blocks indefinitely, effectively turning off the network. Could fork the PoW algo, but just means the attack on the new network now costs <1/1000th the previous one,” Ari Paul noted.
The Risk of Conflict Between Bitcoin’s Decentralized Nature and Regulatory Oversight
Beyond technical challenges, some investors fear that government and institutional involvement will be Bitcoin’s biggest risk in the next 5-10 years.
“Government and institutional involvement changing the incentives of everything,” Investor Shinobi commented.
Bitcoin Holdings by Governments, Corporations, and Financial Institutions. Source: BitcoinTreasuries
Data from BitcoinTreasuries shows that over the past five years, Bitcoin holdings by private companies, public companies, governments, and ETFs have surged more than 12 times, from 210,000 BTC to over 2.6 million BTC. As a result, regulatory intervention could introduce legal pressures or unwanted changes to Bitcoin’s fundamental operations.
“The biggest structural risk is the friction between Bitcoin’s decentralized ethos and the increasing push for centralized regulatory oversight. In essence, as governments and large institutions tighten control and enforce compliance, the network might be forced to compromise on its core principle,” Investor MisterSpread warned.
The discussion sparked by Lyn Alden’s question suggests risks that could trigger black swan events for Bitcoin. It also reflects the growing awareness among industry leaders and investors about Bitcoin’s systemic risks in an era increasingly shaped by political stability and artificial intelligence.
Cardano has seen a notable price increase in recent days, reflecting broader market improvements. The altcoin is currently trading at $0.79, marking a 17% gain over the past three days.
Alongside favorable market conditions, bullish signals from the network itself indicate that Cardano’s price could be on the path to recovery of the 40% losses it sustained in March.
Are Cardano Investors Noting An Opportunity?
The MVRV Long/Short Difference for Cardano is currently sitting at -89%. This indicates that long-term holders (LTHs) are facing near-zero profits, with some even experiencing losses. On the other hand, short-term holders (STHs) of less than a month are seeing profits.
This oscillating indicator reaches extreme negative values near the end of the bear cycle, as when STHs begin to sell, new investors typically step in to absorb the selling pressure.
This dynamic can help keep the price afloat and even push it higher, maintaining positive momentum. The shift could play a pivotal role in recovering from the recent losses.
Bullish technical indicators support Cardano’s macro momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows that bullish momentum is strengthening.
The rising green bars on the histogram suggest that the market is experiencing positive momentum, and the possibility of a bearish crossover is still distant.
Cardano is currently trading at $0.78, a 17% increase over the last three days, bringing it closer to the $0.80 resistance. This recent rally offers another opportunity for Cardano’s price to recover the 40% losses it experienced earlier in March.
If positive momentum continues, Cardano could break through key resistance levels and target higher price points.
A complete recovery would likely require Cardano to reach $1.13, but this could take more time. For now, the realistic target is to flip the $0.85 resistance into support.
If successful, this would lock in the recent gains and set ADA up for further growth towards $0.99, positioning it for a sustained recovery.
However, if Cardano fails to maintain its growth and drops below $0.74, the altcoin could enter a period of consolidation. In this scenario, the price would likely fluctuate between $0.74 and $0.66, invalidating the current bullish outlook.
Since its launch in late March, World Liberty Financial’s stablecoin USD1 has achieved an impressive market capitalization, reflecting strong investor interest. If the creators want to maximize USD1’s reach by accessing markets abroad, particularly in Europe, they must confront MiCA’s extensive compliance list.
In a BeInCrypto interview, experts from Foresight Ventures, Kaiko, and Brickken stressed the importance of stablecoin issuers having substantial European bank reserves, operational volume caps protecting the euro, and transparent USD1 information to ensure transparency and avoid conflicts of interest.
USD1’s Search for Dollar Dominance
World Liberty Financial (WLF), a decentralized finance (DeFi) project heavily associated with the Trump family, officially launched USD1 a month ago. Through this stablecoin, WLF aims to promote dollar dominance worldwide.
So far, this initiative has been working well for WLF. According to CoinGecko, USD1 has now surpassed a market capitalization of $128 million and reached a 24-hour trading volume of nearly $41.6 million. The project has already released 100% of its total supply of 127,971,165 tokens.
USD1’s market capitalization over the past 24 hours. Source: CoinGecko.
For WLF to seriously establish dollar dominance across the globe, it will have to move fast and efficiently. This urgency stems from the need to surpass its main competitors, USDT and USDC. These rivals currently hold a massive market share advantage.
Additionally, there’s a need to maintain a competitive advantage against established currencies like the euro.
USD1 needs to access foreign markets and stand out from established competitors to achieve this. Should Europe become a primary target, USD1 must prepare to tackle numerous challenges head-on.
The EU’s Stringent Compliance Demands
The European Union (EU) became the first jurisdiction in the world to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets across its 27 member states. This regulation, known as Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA), has been in effect for nearly four months. Through this legislation, the EU has confirmed how seriously it takes compliance with a defined regulatory regime.
The regulation is detailed and clear, leaving no room for interpretation. If USD1 wants to operate in this crypto market of 31 million users, it must ensure it meets every demand.
US Senators Flag Risks of Presidential Involvement in USD1
In the letter, the group asked both agencies to clarify how they plan to uphold regulatory integrity following the issuance of USD1.
The Senators cautioned that letting a president personally benefit from a digital currency overseen by federal agencies he has sway over is a big risk to the financial system. They argued that an unprecedented situation like this one could hurt people’s trust in how regulations are made.
“The launch of a stablecoin directly tied to a sitting President who stands to benefit financially from the stablecoin’s success presents unprecedented risks to our financial system,” they argued.
The letter further detailed situations where Trump could directly or indirectly affect decisions regarding USD1.
As things stand, USD1 isn’t well-prepared to follow MiCA’s strict reporting and transparency rules.
How Do Concerns Over USD1 Impact MiCA Acquisition?
According to Ianeva-Aubert, if USD1 doesn’t clear up doubts over potential conflicts of interest, this would affect its ability to apply for an operating license in the European Union.
“MiCA requires strong governance, including independent directors and clear separation between owners and managers. Issuers must have clear rules to handle conflicts of interest. If USD1 has any conflicts, this could make it harder to comply,” she said.
Ianeva-Aubert also highlighted that WLF still hasn’t released enough public information on USD1 to assess the degree of its compliance effectively. In particular, the stablecoin issuer has not disclosed the measures it would take to safeguard against market manipulation.
As of now, USD1 would likely fail MiCA’s transparency tests. However, industry experts pointed out other parts of the framework that might be even larger obstacles for USD1 to operate across the European Union.
Impact of the EU’s Reserve Mandate on USD1
When asked about the biggest regulatory hurdles USD1 would face in securing a MiCA license, experts’ responses were unanimous. The stablecoin would need to store a large portion of its reserves in a European bank.
This mandate has proven difficult for established stablecoin issuers seeking operations across the region.
This regulation aims to ensure seamless accessibility for European crypto users and traders. For Forest Bai, Co-founder of Foresight Ventures, USD1 could capitalize on this opportunity during the early stages of its development. By doing so, it could avoid some of the obstacles its competitors had to endure.
Yet, even as USD1 scales and its demand grows, other mandatory requirements could restrict its scope of success.
MiCA’s Transaction Volume Caps to Preserve Euro Dominance
As part of the MiCA regulation, the European Union has taken specific measures to safeguard the euro’s dominance. If a digital currency not denominated in euros were to become extensively adopted for daily payments within Europe, it could present a potential risk to the European Union’s financial sovereignty and the stability of the euro.
To contain this possibility, MiCA places volume caps on transactions used as a means of exchange within the EU.
In other words, MiCA establishes predefined limits on the transactional volume of such currencies. The EU initiates regulatory measures when these limits are exceeded due to widespread payment usage.
Specifically, USD1 issuers must suspend any further digital currency issuance and provide a remediation plan to the relevant regulator, outlining steps to ensure their usage does not negatively impact the euro.
If USD1 wants to work in places where it can experience uninhibited growth, the European market might not be the best fit for this stablecoin. Other parts of MiCA also suggest this could be the case.
MiCA Limitations to Stablecoins as Investment Vehicles
EU regulators have been clear that stablecoins, or e-money tokens (EMTs), as the regulation refers to them, are payment instruments that should not be confused with investment vehicles. The MiCA framework has a few rules in place to prevent this.
Given the circumstances, experts like Bai think WLF might want to focus on countries with better market conditions for stablecoin issuers.
Should WLF Consider the EU Market for USD1 Operations?
While the European Union has an undeniable crypto market presence, other jurisdictions have an even larger footprint.
”The EU’s crypto market remains comparatively small, with just 31 million users versus Asia’s 263 million and North America’s 38 million users, according to a report from Euronews. This limited market size may not justify MiCA compliance costs for projects, like WLFI,” Bai told BeInCrypto, adding that “Projects ultimately determine their own growth strategy. Given that, currently, the EU represents a secondary market for USD1, the project’s strategic priorities may naturally shift toward regions with less stringent stablecoin regulations to drive its adoption.”
These circumstances alone may prompt USD1 to reconsider its options.
In fact, USD1 could start by gaining a competitive edge right at home.
USD1’s Political Backing at Home
With a crypto-friendly president in office –whose very crypto project officially announced the launch of USD1– the stablecoin has sufficient backing to make its mark.
Looking past the immediate future, Bai underlined that if the US doesn’t keep developing supportive crypto regulations, USD1’s growth in the country could be held back following a government shift.
Given this reality, USD1’s failure to comply with the EU’s regulations, should it ever even consider applying for a MiCA license in the first place, could have negative consequences for the project’s long-term viability.
Regardless of the markets WLF evaluates in its efforts to increase the reach of USD1, compliance with general stipulations concerning transparency, legal architecture, and real-time transaction oversight could be conducive to its eventual success.
