Shiba Inu (SHIB) has been experiencing mixed signals in recent weeks. The meme coin has made attempts to secure a breakout, but this effort hinges heavily on investor support.
Unfortunately, this support has been weak recently, forcing SHIB to rely on the broader market, particularly Bitcoin (BTC), for direction. If Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory, Shiba Inu may have a shot at a recovery rally.
Shiba Inu Needs Support
The MVRV Long/Short Difference for Shiba Inu is currently at a 6-month low, a key indicator suggesting that short-term holders are experiencing substantial profits.
This is a bearish sign for the cryptocurrency, as these investors are typically more inclined to sell when they are in profit. As a result, the potential for a sell-off is higher, and the price of Shiba Inu could take a hit as these holders exit their positions.
This behavior could put downward pressure on SHIB, limiting its chances of maintaining or building upon its recent gains. The lack of strong support from long-term holders, combined with the large profit-taking from short-term traders, creates an unstable market dynamic for Shiba Inu at present.
Shiba Inu’s correlation with Bitcoin remains strong, currently sitting at 0.77. This indicates that SHIB tends to move in tandem with Bitcoin, and as the largest cryptocurrency gradually recovers, Shiba Inu could follow suit.
Bitcoin’s potential rally toward the $90,000 mark would likely provide the necessary boost for SHIB to continue its own recovery.
If Bitcoin breaches the $90,000 level, it will instill further confidence in the broader cryptocurrency market. This, in turn, could help lift Shiba Inu from its current consolidation phase, giving it the momentum needed to push past key resistance levels.
Shiba Inu Correlation To Bitcoin. Source: IntoTheBlock
SHIB Price Is Aiming At Recovery
At the time of writing, Shiba Inu is trading at $0.00001296, just above its support level of $0.00001275. The altcoin is attempting to hold this support and bounce off it, but its ability to maintain this level depends on market conditions.
Should Bitcoin rise further, Shiba Inu may find some support to reach or surpass the $0.00001462 barrier. However, if Bitcoin experiences a slip, SHIB will likely remain consolidated around $0.00001275 or potentially fall to $0.00001141, depending on the strength of the bearish pressure.
The only way this bearish-neutral outlook would be invalidated is if Shiba Inu breaks through the $0.00001462 resistance and flips it into support.
A successful rally above this level could pave the way for SHIB to rise to $0.00001676 and beyond, marking the start of a more bullish trend for the meme coin.
Cardano (ADA) has been experiencing a period of fluctuating price action. Despite efforts to recover, ADA has faced challenges in maintaining its upward momentum.
While the altcoin has held onto an uptrend since the beginning of the month, it now faces a challenge. Traders may be pulled back from participating, potentially stalling any further price recovery.
Cardano Traders Are In Trouble
The sentiment around Cardano (ADA) is mixed. According to the Liquidation Map, short traders are at a disadvantage if ADA continues its uptrend. A breach of $0.77 would lead to the liquidation of approximately $20 million worth of short contracts.
This could result in upward pressure on the price as shorts are forced to close their positions.
However, without strong bullish momentum, this upside potential may not materialize, keeping traders cautious. While short traders could face substantial losses if ADA rises, this risk does not necessarily mean that the uptrend is sustainable.
Overall, Cardano’s market momentum reflects a sense of uncertainty. The number of active addresses on the network has recently dropped to a four-month low of 20,700. This decline in investor participation indicates a lack of enthusiasm among ADA holders. Many investors are seemingly pulling back, waiting for clearer signals of recovery before re-engaging with the token.
This lack of participation has had a negative impact on Cardano’s liquidity and transaction volume, further influencing its price dynamics. The decreasing number of active addresses also suggests that traders are hesitant to invest in ADA, which could slow down any potential price recovery.
Cardano is currently trading at $0.70, holding above the support level of $0.70, and the uptrend line has supported the price since early March. The immediate target for ADA is to breach the $0.77 resistance level, but this remains a challenge. Achieving this would require a rise of approximately 9%, which may be difficult under the current market conditions.
In the absence of a broader market rally, ADA is likely to remain consolidated under the $0.77 resistance. Should the altcoin fail to hold the $0.70 support, it could experience a decline, potentially falling to $0.62. This would invalidate the recent bullish outlook, further dampening investor confidence.
If ADA successfully breaches the $0.77 resistance, it could rise to $0.85, thereby invalidating the bearish thesis. Such a move would likely signal a more sustained recovery, as it would clear a significant hurdle for Cardano.
Solana has emerged as a powerful presence in the crypto industry. Since its inception in 2020, the network has dominated the market, demonstrating remarkable levels of user engagement and practical utility, particularly in decentralized finance (DeFi). Many in the industry view it as the next natural contender to receive an ETF approval in the United States.
However, others are more cautious in their evaluations. BeInCrypto spoke with representatives from Gravity, Variant, and OKX to understand the areas where Solana is still lacking. Industry leaders referred to centralization, network reliability, and excessive regulation as points of contention for Solana’s ETF approval.
Bitcoin and Ethereum’s Precedent
The availability of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for prominent cryptocurrencies has grown over the past year. These funds offer investors diversified investment opportunities and act as a bridge between traditional finance and the increasingly mainstream cryptocurrency market.
Meanwhile, the deadline for some filings, including Grayscale’s, was extended until October. Nonetheless, posts on X and some analytical reports suggest yesterday’s deadline as a date of interest for an initial or consolidated SEC response to several applications.
2025 Predictions and Market Expectations
The tentative approval of a Solana ETF has generated much debate across social media platforms. ETF President Nate Geraci formally predicted that 2025 would be the year of crypto ETFs and that Solana would receive its approval this year.
Per previous reports, former Trump White House Secretary Anthony Scaramucci expressed that, with a Trump reelection, Solana ETFs could gain approval during Q1 of 2025. According to his predictions, Solana would receive the SEC’s green light during the next two weeks.
Meanwhile, the prediction market Polymarket estimates an 82% chance that a Solana ETF will get approved in 2025.
According to a Polymarket poll, Solana has an 82% chance of getting an ETF approval in 2025. Source: Polymarket
Several factors make an imminent Solana ETF approval seem plausible. Less than five years after the network launched, Solana quickly became a major player in the crypto industry, attracting users for its high transaction speeds and low gas fees.
“From a network perspective, Solana’s performance has been remarkable, now driving nearly 50% of all global DEX volume– a dominance that fundamentally reshapes the DeFi landscape. The blockchain is not just handling unprecedented transaction volumes… it’s transforming our understanding of blockchain scalability at scale,” Lennix Lai, Global Chief Commercial Officer at OKX told BeInCrypto.
Solana has established itself as a dynamic force in the crypto industry following a successful 2024.
A Messari report detailed particular growth in Solana’s final quarter across DeFi, liquid staking, NFTs, and institutional involvement. The total value locked (TVL) in Solana’s DeFi sector increased substantially, growing by 64% to $8.6 billion, which placed it behind Ethereum as the second-largest network based on TVL.
Solana’s positive performance, coupled with Donald Trump’s reelection to the US presidency, further amplified the crypto industry’s optimism over an ETF approval.
However, some industry experts have expressed more tempered expectations.
Experts Offer Tempered Expectations
A few days before Trump assumed the presidency, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart said Solana ETFs may not be launched in the US until 2026. He cited the SEC’s precedent of taking a lot of time to review filings as the cause for delay.
In another post, Bloomberg Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said that ETF approvals for other cryptocurrencies were more likely to occur before Solana.
“We expect a wave of cryptocurrency ETFs next year, albeit not all at once. First out is likely the BTC + ETH combo ETFs, then prob Litecoin (bc its fork of btc = commodity), then HBAR (bc not labeled security) and then XRP/Solana (which have been labeled securities in pending lawsuits),” Balchunas said.
Balchunas further explained that complex legal issues around Solana, relating to its status as a security, need to be resolved before it can gain ETF approval. Consequently, he deemed the approval of Litecoin or Hedera ETFs more likely.
Uncertainty over whether Solana classifies as a security is a major driver fueling doubts over its ETF approval.
Security Classification Concerns
Martins Benkitis, co-founder and CEO of Gravity, explained that Solana’s regulatory classification complicates its path to approval.
“It’s no secret there’s currently a lack of precedent for Layer-1 blockchains beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum in the ETF space, this suggests cautious optimism but with higher regulatory hurdles. Bitcoin, being a commodity in the SEC’s eyes, and Ethereum’s gradual transition to PoS had different legal considerations. Solana, on the other hand, faces concerns over potential classification as a security due to its token distribution and foundation’s involvement,” Benkitis told BeInCrypto.
The SEC identified Solana as a security in lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase over the past two years, although these lawsuits have since been dropped. The SEC argued that these tokens could be considered investment contracts under the Howey Test.
While some interpreted the SEC’s lawsuit withdrawal as a softening stance on Solana’s security classification, others quickly challenged this assumption.
“There is no reason to think [the] SEC has decided SOL is a non-security. That they don’t want to do discovery on a dozen tokens in the Binance case appears to be a litigation tactic, not a change in policy,” said Jake Chervinsky, Chief Legal Officer at Variant, following the Binance lawsuit withdrawal in July 2024.
Others believe that a pro-crypto administration should be enough to influence the SEC to consider Solana as a non-security. Lai disagrees.
“The changing political landscape, particularly with Trump’s victory and pro-crypto stance, could create a more constructive environment for innovative blockchain platforms like Solana. However, the technical and market structure considerations will remain crucial regardless of administration changes,” he said.
In the meantime, there are several other requirements Solana must meet.
On his part, Lai added other aspects to the list of considerations.
“While Polymarket shows high odds for 2025 approval, several critical factors suggest a more complex pathway: Solana’s technological architecture presents unique challenges with its PoS mechanism; The absence of CME futures raises liquidity and risk management concerns; Historical network downtime incidents need addressing; Centralization questions relative to BTC and ETH remain unresolved; Institutional interest hasn’t matched BTC and ETH levels despite the network driving 48% of global DEX volume; [and] the temporary nature of trending themes suggests caution in using current volumes as primary indicators,” Lai told BeInCrypto.
Concerns about centralization and scalability have long been discussed regarding Solana, even outside of discussions over an ETF approval.
Since 2021, Solana has suffered over a dozen network outages varying in severity. These outages have jeopardized the network’s reputation as stable and reliable– two strongly considered characteristics during the ETF approval process.
“From a market making standpoint, network reliability is crucial as any downtime or congestion can significantly impact trading operations and order execution,” Benkitis affirmed.
However, Solana has successfully curbed the number of outages it has experienced. Once notorious for the frequency of its shutdowns, the last time Solana experienced one was in February 2024.
Meanwhile, developers designed Solana’s upcoming Firedancer validator client to improve network stability and transaction processing. Its distinct codebase offers greater resilience against widespread outages and will enhance Solana’s performance.
Yet, Solana must also mitigate centralization concerns to improve its chances of obtaining ETF approval.
Centralization Concerns
Solana’s validator node requirements, which demand significant hardware investments, can create barriers to entry. These obstacles can potentially concentrate power within the network among those capable of affording the necessary infrastructure.
In turn, the protocol’s limited number of validators compared to other networks raises concerns over centralization. For context, while Solana currently has around 2,000 active validators, Ethereum passed the one million benchmark last year—the largest number recorded by any blockchain network.
Though Solana’s hardware reliance speeds up the network, it also raises decentralization concerns. Benkitis factored this aspect into his evaluation of an ETF approval.
Its currently underdeveloped futures market infrastructure further complicates Solana’s viability as an ETF candidate.
Its filings were unprecedented because the network did not have a previously established futures market. This factor was crucial in determining an ETF approval for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
“The lack of CME futures and institutional frameworks comparable to BTC/ETH could influence [the SEC’s] evaluation,” Lai said.
He added that the proliferation of meme tokens minted on Solana could present themselves as a potential roadblock.
“Market reactions reflect Solana’s emergence as the primary driver of this cycle, with DEX volumes exceeding $100 billion and dominating major aggregators. However, I believe the temporary nature of trending themes suggests continued volatility. While technological advancement and growing institutional adoption may provide stronger foundations, we need to maintain perspective on the cyclical nature of crypto trends,” Lai said.
This more recent development in Solana’s attraction also brings its set of downsides.
Meme Coin Influence and Regulatory Concerns
The expanding meme coin market on Solana partially explains its popularity. Platforms like Pump.fun allow anyone to launch their tokens, and this design has even led to celebrities launching their tokens on the platform.
More recently, political figures like Donald Trump and Argentine president Javier Milei have also launched meme tokens on Solana platforms. Yet, these activities have proven to be high-risk. In many cases, meme coin investments have caused smaller retailers millions of dollars in losses.
Benkitis said that the SEC might frown upon the speculative nature of these trading activities.
“While an ETF approval could unlock liquidity opportunities, the market’s heavy dependence on speculative sentiment calls for a measured and cautious approach,” he said.
With so many considerations, approving a Solana ETF in 2025 is far from guaranteed. The SEC’s eventual decision will be a defining moment for the network and the broader crypto industry.
