Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) has recently reached a new all-time high (ATH) of $0.046, marking a six-month milestone for the meme coin.
However, even with the record high, the altcoin is facing a challenge from investors who seem to be exiting, albeit gradually. This could lead to a drop in the PENGU price.
Pudgy Penguins Notes Demand
The rising demand for PENGU has been reflected in the derivatives market. Open Interest, which combines both long and short contracts, surged by 54% in just 48 hours, jumping from $426 million to $657 million. This indicates that the majority of market participants are bullish, as the funding rate remains largely positive, suggesting a stronger preference for long contracts.
This increase in Open Interest signals investor optimism despite the broader market’s turbulence. The surge in contract volumes reflects that PENGU’s price rally is based on spot market trades and also on substantial leverage.
For token TA and market updates: Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.
Over the past few days, the holder change for PENGU has been a mix of new investors entering the market and some existing holders exiting. This mixed sentiment shows that there is no clear consensus among investors. While some are confident in PENGU’s potential, others remain cautious, unsure of the sustainability of the recent gains.
The lack of a clear investor pattern indicates skepticism is still widespread. Despite this, the entry of new holders suggests that there is still a strong belief in PENGU’s future, driven by the altcoin’s price momentum and broader market conditions. However, the simultaneous exit of investors could create an underlying challenge for sustaining the uptrend.
PENGU’s price is currently trading at $0.044, after marking a new ATH of $0.046 earlier today. The altcoin has risen nearly 20% in the last 24 hours, showing strong short-term gains. This price action has led PENGU to a six-month high, highlighting the recent bullish sentiment surrounding the meme coin.
To continue its upward momentum, PENGU needs to secure solid investor support. If the altcoin can maintain this buying pressure, it is likely to break past its ATH of $0.046 and aim for a new high, potentially reaching $0.052 or higher. The key factor for continued growth will be the market’s confidence.
On the other hand, if the growing uncertainty and investor exits turn into a more significant trend, PENGU’s price could experience a sharp decline. A potential fall below the support level of $0.040 could lead to a drop to $0.029, signaling a complete reversal of the recent bullish trend and invalidating the optimistic outlook.
Over 50% of all cryptocurrencies ever launched since 2021 are now defunct. An even more alarming trend is emerging in 2025, where the percentage of failed tokens launched this year has reached the same level in just the first five months.
That percentage will naturally rise with more than half of the year left. Representatives from Binance and Dune Analytics told BeInCrypto that these failures are just another reminder of the need to launch viable projects, backed by solid tokenomics and a robust community.
Ghost Tokens Skyrocket
A recent CoinGecko report revealed some jaw-dropping data. Of the approximately 7 million cryptocurrencies listed on GeckoTerminal since 2021, 3.7 million have subsequently died.
Several factors are considered when evaluating whether a coin has reached its end.
“A coin is classified as ‘dead’ when it loses all utility, liquidity, and community engagement. Key indicators include near-zero trading volume, abandoned development (no GitHub commits for 6+ months), and a price drop of 99%+ from its all-time high. Teams often vanish without warning—social media accounts go dormant, domains expire,” Alsie Liu, Content Manager at Dune Analytics, told BeInCrypto.
Half of all tokens launched since 2021 have died. Source: CoinGecko.
A significant 53% of listed cryptocurrencies have failed, with most collapses concentrated in 2024 and 2025. Notably, the over 1.82 million tokens already stopped trading in 2025 significantly outpaced the approximately 1.38 million failures recorded throughout 2024.
With seven months out of the year ahead, this trend of increasing failures in the current year will continue to grow.
CoinGecko specifically suggested a potential link between economic concerns like tariffs and recession fears, noting a surge in meme coin launches after a certain election, with subsequent market volatility likely contributing to their decline.
However, not all responsibility can be placed on a greater economic downturn. Other aspects can contribute to these project failures.
“Common factors include inability to find product market fit leading to negligible interest from users or investors, or project teams that focus too much on short-term speculation with no long-term roadmap, and sometimes abandonment by developers (rug pulls). Broader issues like fraudulent intentions, weak user traction, novelty-driven hype, financial shortfalls, poor execution, strong competition, or security failures also contribute to project failure,” a Binance spokesperson told BeInCrypto.
The rapid rise in ghost tokens also came with the exponential launch of projects en masse, particularly since the start of 2024.
Analyzing the Life-Death Ratio
Last year was novel in its own right following the proliferation of meme coins. This new narrative emerged particularly after the launch of Pump.fun, a Solana platform that allows anyone to launch a token at a minimal cost.
According to CoinGecko data, 3 million new tokens were listed on CoinGecko in 2024 alone. Half of these projects died, but the other half survived. However, the situation in 2025 appears less stable.
The difference between token launches and failures in 2025 is minimal. Source: CoinGecko.
While the number of new token launches remains high, the number of failures is nearly equivalent, with launches only marginally exceeding deaths by about a thousand.
“Ecosystems with low barriers to token creation see the highest number of ghost coins. In general, platforms that make it very easy and cheap to launch new tokens see the most abandoned coins. During this cycle, Solana’s meme coin surge (e.g., via token launchpads like Pump.fun) drove a flood of new tokens, many of which lost user traction and daily activity once initial hype faded,” Binance’s spokesperson explained.
As of March 5, the meme coin market capitalization had sharply decreased to $54 billion, marking a 56.8% drop from its peak of $125 billion on December 5, 2024. This downturn was accompanied by a significant decrease in trading activity, with volumes falling by 26.2% in the preceding month alone.
Certain token categories have been hit harder than others.
Music and Video Tokens Among the Hardest-Hit Categories
A 2024 BitKE report indicated that video and music were prominent categories with many failed cryptocurrency projects, reaching a 75% failure rate. This outsized percentage suggests that niche-focused crypto ventures often face challenges in achieving long-term viability.
“These niches face adoption and utility gaps. Music tokens struggle to compete with Spotify/YouTube, while ‘listen-to-earn’ models often lack demand. As more mainstream celebrities get into the space without knowing much about blockchain technology, tokens have become the new cash-grab business,” Liu explained.
Binance’s spokesperson noted that legal and technical hurdles, such as music licensing and the significant resources needed for video delivery, complicated the scaling of decentralized alternatives.
They further explained that many projects struggled to remain sustainable without substantial user adoption or strong network effects.
“This highlights that a good concept alone is not enough; crypto projects must also compete with entrenched Web2 platforms, navigate complex industry challenges, and deliver real-world utility to succeed. Without aligning with user behavior and market needs, even well-intentioned initiatives risk fading into ghost tokens,” Binance told BeInCrypto.
Despite the discouraging number of failed tokens, this situation offers important insights into building resilient projects that withstand unfavorable market conditions.
What Can We Learn From Catastrophic Token Collapses?
Prospective token creators can learn significant lessons from once-popular projects that ultimately failed. The negative outcomes experienced by these ventures, particularly in severe instances, can motivate the development of new projects responsibly and avoid similar pitfalls.
Binance referred to notorious ghost coin cases BitConnect and OneCoin.
“BitConnect, once a top-10 coin, collapsed in 2018 after being exposed as a Ponzi scheme promising ~1% daily returns. Investors lost nearly $2 billion. OneCoin, raising ~$4 billion, never had a real blockchain and relied on aggressive multi-level marketing before collapsing. Both cases highlight the dangers of projects built on hype, unrealistic promises, and lack of verifiable technology,” Binance’s spokesperson explained.
While concerning, the rising number of ghost coins serves as a crucial reminder that discernible warning signs often precede the downfall of these cryptocurrencies.
These cases underline the necessity of rigorous research, validating underlying principles, and maintaining a cautious perspective, especially when investment gains appear unrealistically high. Prioritizing risk management and sustainable long-term factors should outweigh short-term speculative trading.
Binance particularly highlighted the importance of “Do Your Own Research” (DYOR) when evaluating crypto projects.
“Practically, this means reviewing the whitepaper, assessing whether the project solves a real problem, verifying the team’s credibility, examining tokenomics and supply distribution, and checking community and development activity,” Binance said, adding that “In essence, DYOR is about empowerment and protection. It helps investors identify solid projects and avoid scams or ghost tokens by spotting red flags early. Given how fast crypto markets move, personal due diligence remains essential for navigating the space safely and successfully.”
Ultimately, the prevalence of ghost tokens highlights a critical truth for crypto participants: thorough research and fundamental value are paramount for identifying lasting projects.
Crypto options expiry this week concerns over $3.5 billion in notional value. The high volume of expiring options isexpected to create short-term volatility in the market.
These expiring options coincide with rising global uncertainty amid geopolitical tensions, so traders and investors should prepare for the impact.
Crypto Markets to See $3.5 Billion in Bitcoin, Ethereum Options Expire
With over $3.5 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring today, data on Deribit shows BTC contracts account for most of it. Today, 27,959 Bitcoin option contracts will expire, sending up to $2.9 billion in notional value down the drain.
The maximum pain level is $106,500, slightly above Bitcoin’s price as of press time. Option traders will experience the most losses at this level.
Meanwhile, these expiring Bitcoin contracts have a put-to-call ratio of 0.91, highlighting the prevalence of Call (purchase) options rather than Put (sale) options. This means traders are leaning bullish rather than bearish.
At the same time, 246,849 Ethereum contracts will expire today, accounting for $617.6 million in notional value.
According to data on Deribit, these expiring options have a put-to-call ratio of 1.14. The maximum pain level or strike price is $2,650. Notably, Ethereum’s put-to-call ratio is above 1, showing a prevalence of Put (sale) options rather than Call (purchase) options.
Ethereum’s put and call options distribution suggests a market tilt toward protecting against ETH price drops, based on the higher put-call ratio of 1.14.
According to the Max Pain theory in crypto options trading, as options near their expiration, the underlying asset’s price tends to gravitate toward the strike price. Here, the greatest number of options (calls and puts) would expire worthless, causing maximum financial loss (or “pain”) to option holders.
This theory hinges on the assumption that market makers or large institutional players (smart money), often on the other side of options trades, may influence the underlying asset’s price through trading or hedging activities. Their actions push prices toward the max pain points.
It happens as market makers profit when options expire worthless, as they collect the premiums without paying out.
Ethereum Upside Flows Are Strong Heading Into Expiry
Greeks.live analysts highlight bearish dominance, as seen with multiple traders shifting to buy puts for protection. Deribit notes that ETH upside flows are heading into expiry.
“ETH upside flows are strong heading into expiry. Will traders keep chasing it after Friday, or is this where it cools off?” Deribit posed.
This contrasts with Ethereum’s max pain point, indicating potential volatility given that option expiries often trigger price swings as traders adjust positions. This is especially true when flows defy max pain expectations.
“The group appears divided on market direction, with bears dominating the conversation as multiple traders have shifted to buying puts for protection,” analysts at Greeks.live wrote, highlighting market sentiment.
Analysts at Greeks.live attempt to explain the Put protection strategy, which is displayed among traders who are hedging for downside risk.
According to the analysts, traders are buying put spreads and protective puts, positioning themselves strategically after months of bullish sentiment.
High volatility environment is creating attractive opportunities for put protection, with traders anticipating two standard deviation events and significant price wicks from unexpected news catalysts,” they added.
