Ohio may soon become one of the first states to invest public funds in cryptocurrency, as lawmakers debate House Bill 18—the Ohio Strategic Cryptocurrency Reserve Act.
This proposal would permit the state government and retirement systems to invest in digital assets and related exchange-traded products.
Setting the Stage for State Crypto Investments
House Bill 18 (HB 18), introduced by Representative Steve Demetriou, is drawing attention for its practical steps toward integrating digital assets into the state’s portfolio.
Importantly, the bill avoids specifying any particular cryptocurrencies—such as Bitcoin—in order to keep investment choices flexible. If passed, Ohio’s state Treasurer would oversee these updated investment strategies, providing the state with a modern approach to finance.
The latest developments come as the Ohio House of Representatives recently passed House Bill 116. The bill, titled the Ohio Blockchain Basics Act, received a decisive vote of 68 to 26, highlighting strong bipartisan support. This legislation exempts crypto transactions under $200 from capital gains taxes in Ohio.
Supporters believe HB 18 could lead to stronger returns and better portfolio diversification for Ohio. By not naming certain coins or exchange-traded products, future investments could include a range of digital assets, all subject to market analysis and risk management.
Oversight, Transparency, and Legal Framework
The bill designates Ohio’s state Treasurer as the manager of potential cryptocurrency investments. State retirement systems could also join the program, following their own risk assessments and internal approvals.
Currently, House Bill 18 does not include an official fiscal note or state-issued financial analysis. So questions remain about the amount of public money that may be involved. Oversight rules and transparency requirements are expected before any final vote.
“A state Bitcoin reserve could diversify Ohio’s assets, reduce reliance on fiat, and signal crypto adoption,” a user commented on X.
Rising institutional interest in cryptocurrency is reflected in the bill, as officials seek a balanced approach to investment and risk. Nevertheless, ongoing debate and thorough legislative review will shape the bill’s future.
If enacted, House Bill 18 could give Ohio a pioneering role in state-level crypto investment, setting an example for others.
Bitcoin spot ETFs have experienced a rollercoaster week of inflows and outflows, largely driven by investors reacting to shifting macroeconomic cues.
However, a renewed wave of optimism has swept through the markets following the US Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged. This move appears to have reassured investors and reignited institutional appetite for BTC-backed funds.
Bitcoin ETFs Bounce Back
The week started strong. On Monday, inflows totaled $425.45 million across BTC spot ETFs. Yet, this bullish momentum was interrupted on Tuesday as institutional investors pulled capital from the market ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The pullback resulted in net outflows of $85.64 million.
However, the trend shifted on Wednesday, thanks to the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates. The announcement triggered a sharp rebound in investor confidence, fueling fresh inflows of $142.31 million into BTC ETFs.
Total Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflow. Source: SosoValue
On May 7, Ark Invest and 21Shares’ ARKB recorded the largest single-day inflow, totaling $57.73 million, bringing its total cumulative net inflows to $2.68 billion.
The second-largest daily inflow was recorded by Fidelity’s FBTC, which saw $39.92 million enter the fund. FBTC’s total historical net inflows now stand at $11.64 billion.
According to SosoValue, no fund recorded a net outflow on Wednesday.
Options and Futures Signal Bitcoin Bulls in Control
The renewed optimism extends beyond inflows into ETFs. BTC is up 2% over the past 24 hours, and currently trades at $98,888. This price surge is accompanied by a positive funding rate, indicating an increase in leveraged long positions.
At press time, this is at 0.0042%. The funding rate is a periodic fee exchanged between long and short positions in perpetual futures contracts to keep prices aligned with the spot market. When positive like this, traders holding long positions pay shorts, indicating that bullish sentiment dominates the BTC market.
However, it is key to note that despite this, BTC’s futures open interest has fallen by a modest 0.18% over the past day. This suggests that while traders are largely optimistic, some leveraged positions may have been closed, possibly to take profit as BTC soars.
Meanwhile, traders have also caught the bullish virus in the options market. The demand for call options has surged, exceeding puts, indicating that traders are increasingly positioning for the upside.
Despite the broader market uptick this week, Hedera’s native token HBAR has bucked the trend, registering a 5% decline over the past seven days.
With bearish momentum building, the HBAR token now risks a return to its year-to-date low.
HBAR Slides Below Key Indicators
HBAR’s decline comes as many top cryptocurrencies post modest gains this week, reflecting its divergence from general market sentiment.
Readings from the HBAR/USD one-day chart suggest that this bearish trend could persist in the short term. For example, as of this writing, HBAR trades below the dots that make up its Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) indicator.
This indicator measures an asset’s price trends and identifies potential entry and exit points. When an asset’s price trades below the SAR, it indicates a downtrend. It suggests the market is in a bearish phase, with the potential for further price dips.
Supporting this bearish outlook, HBAR’s Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains in the negative territory, signaling a decline in buying volume and a growing presence of sellers in the market. It currently stands at -0.07.
This key momentum indicator measures money flows into and out of an asset. A negative CMF reading, like HBAR’s, signals that selling pressure dominates the market. This means that more investors are offloading the token than accumulating it, a pattern associated with a weakening price trend.
HBAR Tests 20-Day EMA: Will It Hold or Break Toward $0.12?
The daily chart shows HBAR’s decline has pushed it near the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA). This key moving average measures an asset’s average price over the past 20 trading days, giving weight to recent changes.
When the price falls near the 20-day EMA, it signals a potential support level being tested. However, if the price breaks decisively below the EMA, it may confirm sustained bearish momentum and further downside risk.
Therefore, HBAR’s break below the 20-day EMA could lower its price to its year-to-date low of $0.12.
After numerous Congressional debates and revisions, the GENIUS Act is now on the verge of becoming law. The bill, which aims to regulate the stablecoin industry across the United States, is widely expected to be signed.
According to representatives from Digital Chamber, a D.C.-based advocacy group for the blockchain industry, the bill approval will likely come before the end of June. Such a move would increase institutional adoption and strengthen the US dollar’s dominance globally.
When Will the GENIUS Act Pass?
Poised for passage, the GENIUS Act is a landmark bill that would federally regulate the US stablecoin industry.
Despite recent disagreements between Republican and Democratic Senators, the bill passed a key procedural vote. Kristopher Klaich, Policy Director at The Digital Chamber, strongly believes in its impending approval.
“I feel pretty strongly that there won’t be more hiccups… I think the industry has been such a strong player in politics for the last couple of years and supporting campaigns… there’s a high cost for members that may be the stick in the mud,” he told BeInCrypto.
According to Taylor Barr, the advocacy group’s Government Affairs and PAC Manager, 53 amendments have been made.
“Majority leader Thune is committed to having what he’s calling a fully open amendment process, which means every single amendment has the full right to go through a debate vote and to have full closure on each amendment. So at the end of the day, that could be a three-week-long process,” Barr told BeInCrypto.
However, Barr clarified that a fully open process with 53 individual debates is unlikely. He expects these amendments to be divided into three or four groups, resulting in a more efficient and abbreviated open amendment process, given that many are duplicative.
If Barr’s estimations are correct, the bill will pass before the end of this month. When it does, the significance will be substantial for the greater crypto industry.
Understanding Stablecoin Impact
Stablecoins are arguably the most globally adopted digital asset. Unlike traditional cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or altcoins, they provide worldwide access to a stable medium of exchange.
According to a January report by crypto exchange CEX.io, the total stablecoin transaction volume reached 27.6 trillion in 2024, exceeding Visa’s total payment volume and Mastercard’s by 7.7%.
Tether and Circle dominate the market at $151 billion and $59 billion, respectively. Together, they have an 89% market share, according to rwa.xyz.
Tether and Circle dominate stablecoin market share. Source: rwa.xyz.
Their heavyweight presence in global economies makes a bill like the GENIUS Act all the more significant. This is especially true in the context of a debilitated US dollar.
The Dollar’s Waning Influence
The US dollar started the year exceptionally weakly. Two days ago, the US Dollar Index (DXY)—a key measure heavily influenced by the euro—fell nearly 9% to just under 99. The results marked its weakest calendar year opening since at least the mid-1980s.
This situation and broader de-dollarization efforts by major US debt holders like China and Japan intensify concerns about the dollar’s future.
US Dollar Index Continues to Decline. Source: Yahoo Finance
Data from Ark Invest illustrates this shift. In 2011, these three nations held 23% of the $10.1 trillion in outstanding US Treasury debt.
By November 2024, despite the total outstanding US Treasury debt rising to $36 trillion, their combined holdings had dropped significantly to approximately 6%.
This substantial decrease in holdings by key foreign creditors highlights growing worries about the dollar’s long-term stability and the United States’ ability to refinance its massive debt.
“Dollars are the world reserve currency. Demand for dollars has waned at the sovereign level. Over recent years, the largest purchasers of treasuries are cutting their holdings of treasuries. That is not a good situation for the United States as they try to refinance,” Klaich said.
Klaich added that legislation like the GENIUS Act is crucial:
“In my mind, there’s very little more important than the stablecoin bill being passed from an macroeconomic perspective… If demand for dollars diminishes at the sovereign level, structurally speaking, if that is or can be replaced by demand at a retail individual level, that is a huge boon to the US government.”
The data behind Klaich’s statements seems to back his analysis.
What Role Will Stablecoins Play in Future US Debt Demand?
The stablecoin market is poised for significant growth. According to an April report from Citigroup, the total stablecoin supply could reach $1.6 trillion by 2030. This growth could create a demand for US debt comparable to the historical levels supported by sovereign nations.
Stablecoin issuers could be one of the largest holders of US treasuries by 2030. Source: Citigroup.
The GENIUS Act could facilitate this transition.
“Hopefully, when it passes, demand for stablecoins will explode because there are many companies and banks that are planning to introduce stablecoins that will provide the rails for them to operate at a consumer and business level. So the efficiencies companies and individuals realize will help push that,” Klaich explained.
“It allows anybody in the world to access US dollars. What that affords the US from an economic warfare standpoint is significant,” Klaich added.
With persistent inflation risks, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to buy back significant amounts of US treasuries. Therefore, encouraging stablecoin use allows this market to effectively replace currently ineffective financial mechanisms.
Amendments to the Bill
If the GENIUS Act is implemented correctly, the stablecoin industry could become a valuable financial tool for the US government to ensure long-term support for the US dollar.
The bill underwent a difficult revision process. According to Barr, the process was tedious and politically challenging.
“If you look at all of the progress we’ve made, we’ve worked on this for three Congresses now. We’ve worked on this [through] multiple different leaderships– minority, majority split. So we’re so close. We’ve done all this progress so we can see the finish line. We’re going to get there,” he said.
However, multiple revisions were a prerequisite for its passage to ensure the bill responsibly addressed consumer protection, national security, and market integrity issues.
Klaich noted that these critical concerns were addressed fairly in the legislative process. He emphasized that recent versions of the bill effectively integrated these revisions.
“None of those issues are existential, and they’ve been negotiated into the latest version of the bill that’s being considered right now. I think the changes that have been made are reasonable and acceptable,” he said.
The future will reveal if the bill passes and achieves its desired effect in helping the US overcome its complicated economic reality.
