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Nasdaq-listed Bit Digital is the latest company to adopt the Ethereum standard, offloading all its Bitcoin holdings for the largest altcoin. The move has sent Bit Digital’s stock rallying by nearly 20% in a day as the company eyes becoming the largest Ethereum Treasury player Bit Digital Abandons Bitcoin For Ethereum Treasury According to a
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The crypto market shows positive signs in the second half of April 2025. Several divergence signals have appeared, suggesting a potential recovery for Bitcoin and altcoins.
Divergence is a key concept in data analysis. It happens when the values of two metrics suddenly shift and move in opposite directions compared to their previous trend. This often signals a change in price momentum. Based on expert analysis and market data, this article highlights five major divergence signals—three for Bitcoin and two for altcoins—to help investors better understand the market outlook.
Historically, Bitcoin and the DXY Index (US Dollar Index) move in opposite directions. When DXY rises, Bitcoin tends to fall, and vice versa. But from September 2024 to March 2025, Bitcoin and the DXY moved in the same direction.
This correlation broke in April when the US announced a new tariff policy. The inverse relationship seems to have returned.
Joe Consorti, Head of Growth at TheyaBitcoin, noted that Bitcoin started decoupling from the US dollar after the announcement of the sweeping tariff regime. A chart from his post shows that in April, while the DXY fell sharply from 103.5 to 98.5, Bitcoin surged from around $75,000 to over $91,000.
This divergence may reflect investors turning to Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset amid global economic uncertainty caused by the tariffs.
“Bitcoin has been diverging from the US dollar since the US announced its sweeping tariff regime. Amidst this global economic reordering, gold and bitcoin are shining,” Joe Consorti predicted.
Another key divergence comes from Tuur Demeester, an advisor to Blockstream. He pointed out a separation between Bitcoin and the NASDAQ Index, which represents tech stocks. Historically, Bitcoin closely followed the NASDAQ due to its ties to tech and macroeconomic sentiment.
But in April 2025, Bitcoin started showing independent growth. It no longer moves in sync with the NASDAQ. While some, like Ecoinometrics, argue that this divergence isn’t necessarily bullish, Demeester remains optimistic.
“Bitcoin divergence” and “Bitcoin decoupling” will be dominant headlines for 2025,” Tuur Demeester said.
Specifically, NASDAQ has faced downward pressure from interest rate concerns and slowing growth. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown strength, with significant price gains. This suggests that Bitcoin is cementing its role as a standalone asset less tied to traditional markets.
Data from CryptoQuant highlights another divergence—this time in investor behavior. Long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH, those who’ve held BTC for over 155 days) began accumulating again after the recent local peak.
In contrast, short-term holders (STH) are selling off. This divergence often signals the early stage of a re-accumulation phase and hints at a future price rebound.
“Why This Divergence Matters? LTH behavior is generally associated with macro conviction, not speculative moves. STH activity is often emotional and reactive, driven by price volatility and fear. When LTH accumulation meets STH capitulation, it tends to signal early stages of a re-accumulation phase,” IT Tech, an analyst at CryptoQuant, predicted.
Divergence signals also appeared for altcoins, indicating a positive short-term outlook.
Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Realvision, pointed to a key divergence using the “365-day new lows” indicator. This metric tracks how many altcoins hit their lowest point in the past year.
In April 2025, although altcoin market capitalization dropped to a new low, the number of altcoins hitting new 365-day lows decreased significantly. Historically, this pattern often precedes a recovery in altcoin market caps.
“Divergence shows downside momentum was exhausted,” Jamie Coutts said.
In simpler terms, fewer altcoins hitting rock bottom means less panic-selling. It suggests that negative market sentiment is weakening. At the same time, rising prices show renewed buying interest. These factors hint that altcoins may be gearing up for a recovery—or even an “altcoin season,” a period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin.
Another technical divergence comes from the RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the Bitcoin Dominance chart (BTC.D), noted by analyst Merlijn The Trader. This chart reflects Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market capitalization.
“Bearish Divergence Spotted on BTC.D. Higher highs on the chart. Lower highs on RSI. This setup doesn’t lie. Altcoin strength is brewing. Watch for trade setups,” Merlijn said.
This pure technical divergence suggests that BTC.D might soon undergo a strong correction. If that happens, investors may shift more capital into altcoins.
The altcoin market cap (TOTAL3) rebounded by 20% in April, from $660 billion to over $800 billion. The divergence signals discussed above suggest that this recovery could continue.
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Ethereum price has been experiencing a prolonged bearish trend, raising concerns among investors and analysts. Recent technical analysis suggests that the cryptocurrency’s price could decline further, potentially reaching as low as $1,060. Multiple factors, including weak market structure, lack of bullish momentum, and negative on-chain data, influence the downward movement.
According to price analysis by Mags, Ethereum has failed to break the $4,000 resistance level three times in this cycle. Each rejection has led to a further decline, with the latest downturn pushing the cryptocurrency below its mid-range level. The price is now also trading below an upward-sloping trendline support, which had been holding since the previous cycle bottom.
Analysts warn that Ethereum could continue its decline if it does not reclaim $2,500 in the near term. A further drop below the current levels could expose ETH to a potential fall toward $1,060, where the range low is positioned. The lack of strong support suggests that downward movement remains a strong possibility.
Market data indicates that Ethereum price remains under bearish pressure. The altcoin has not shown signs of establishing a solid bottom, raising the risk of prolonged losses. Without a strong recovery above resistance levels, the bearish trend may persist.
Additionally, the ETH/BTC trading pair has been underperforming, signaling weakness in Ethereum’s relative strength against Bitcoin. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the three-day chart remains below 30, a level that often indicates oversold conditions. However, historical trends show that oversold levels have not always marked a definitive bottom for Ethereum price.
Since mid-2024, ETH/BTC has recorded multiple breakdowns, with declines of 13%, 21%, 25%, and 19.5%. The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) continue to trend downward, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Additionally, analyst CarpeNoctom has pointed out that ETH/BTC has yet to confirm a bullish divergence on its weekly chart, further suggesting that ETH price could struggle to find support.
Since the start of the year, Ethereum-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US have seen consistent outflows. In March 2021, the net assets of spot Ether ETFs decreased by 9.8%, amounting to $2.54 billion. Bitcoin ETFs, on the other hand, suffered a slight decrease of 2.35% to $35.74 billion. This divergence indicates that institutional fund managers are losing interest in Ethereum.
Further, there is decreasing network usage evidenced by on-chain data. It is worth mentioning the median gas fees have declined on the mainnet and fluctuating at approximately 1.12 GWEI in March. This is a far lower turnover as compared to the previous calendar year, meaning that there are less transaction taking place on the network.
Technical analysts believe that the future performance of Ethereum price is not looking good as it remains below some key levels. The next level of support is at $1,060 which blends with the lower limit of the long-term trading range.
As of this writing, the altcoin is trading at $1,923.03, which is 27.81% low from the previous month. Despite a market cap of $231.96 billion, the ongoing downward trend suggests continued selling pressure.
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XRP recently hit a new all-time high before entering a period of sideways consolidation. The cryptocurrency has struggled to break past resistance but has also managed to avoid a major correction.
This equilibrium, however, may not last much longer as investor behavior signals a shift in momentum.
Investors have started selling off large amounts of XRP, suggesting declining confidence in further upside. Over the past week, exchange wallets saw an influx of nearly 450 million XRP, valued at more than $2.81 billion. This spike in supply indicates that holders are moving their assets to sell, usually a bearish indicator in market cycles.
The rapid profit booking appears to be fueled by concerns that XRP has peaked in the short term. As investors move to secure their gains, the pressure on XRP’s price increases. A continued rise in selling could result in a drop below the immediate support levels, making recovery more difficult.
On-chain data further confirms the bearish sentiment. Liveliness, a metric used to track long-term holder (LTH) behavior, is currently at a three-month high. This suggests that LTHs, typically known for their conviction and market influence, are now selling XRP.
Their shift in behavior is a strong indicator of potential downward pressure.
Historically, an uptick in Liveliness precedes market corrections. Since LTHs hold a large portion of the supply, their decisions significantly impact price trends. The increase in Liveliness reflects a broader change in market outlook, aligning with the recent surge in exchange supply and overall decline in bullish sentiment.
XRP is currently trading at $3.48, only 4.8% away from its all-time high. Despite the proximity, the altcoin is showing signs of weakness and is clinging to the $3.38 support level. Without renewed buying interest, this support may not hold much longer.
If investor selling continues, XRP could fall through $3.38 and test the $3.00 support. A drop to this level would erase the recent gains and confirm a near-term bearish reversal. The loss of $3.00 could signal a longer consolidation phase or deeper correction.
However, if market participants absorb the sold supply and restore demand, XRP could rebound quickly. In this scenario, the altcoin might surpass $3.66, breach $3.80, and aim for $4.00. Such a move would invalidate the bearish outlook, and XRP Price could form a new ATH.
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