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Bitcoin’s price jumped over 12% last week to reach $96,500, surpassing the average purchase price of “short-term whales”—large holders who bought Bitcoin within the last six months.
CryptoQuant analyst JA Maartunn told BeInCrypto that these whales have reclaimed their break-even level of $90,890. It means they are now in profit and less likely to sell, which adds stability to the market.
Short-Term Bitcoin Whales Return to Profit
Short-term whales are addresses that have held Bitcoin for under six months. These whales are now sitting in aggregate profit as BTC outpaces their average realized price.
CryptoQuant’s Short/Long-Term Whale Realized Price chart shows the orange line (short-term whale cost basis) rising toward the white market price curve in recent weeks.
It confirms that most short-term holders would net gains if they sold at current levels.
On-chain data reinforce the significance. Funding rates on perpetual swaps remain deeply negative, indicating heavy short positions poised for a potential squeeze if buying continues.
Seasonal trends often cool summer rallies. Historically, Bitcoin gained 26% in Q2 on average, but the median has been just 7.6% since 2013. Sharp drops—like the 56.2% plunge in Q2 2022—have occurred.
Q3 is usually weaker, averaging 6% returns and a slightly negative median. As May nears, many brace for the “sell in May” effect seen in equities, where the S&P 500 has returned only 1.8% from May through October since 1950.
Bitcoin Quarterly Returns Since 2013. Source: Coinglass
Macro factors also matter. US inflation has eased to 2.4%, and markets now expect Fed rate cuts later in 2025.