According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in May has plunged from 57% to just 15%. This is due to President Trump’s 90-day tariff pause and newly released March FOMC minutes.
The March 18–19 FOMC minutes, released Tuesday, confirm that policymakers remain cautious on easing.
FOMC Minutes Reveal Hawkish Caution
While the Fed acknowledged solid economic growth and stable labor markets, officials noted that inflation is still running above the 2% target.
Many participants emphasized upside risks to inflation, particularly from broad-based tariff increases and potential supply chain disruptions.
Several Fed members observed that inflation prints for January and February came in higher than expected, and warned that the effects of new tariffs — particularly on core goods — may prove more persistent than anticipated.
Federal Reserve’s Interest Rate Cut Probability in May 2025. Source: CME FedWatch
Although participants supported maintaining current interest rates, they stressed that policy flexibility is essential as uncertainty surrounding trade, fiscal, and immigration policy clouds the outlook.
As of now, Trump’s decision to pause new tariffs for most countries for 90 days while raising Chinese tariffs to 125% has reduced fears of a full-blown trade war.
However, retaliatory action from China and elevated inflation expectations reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance. So, policymakers are signaling they are in no rush to cut rates.
What It Means for Crypto
As we have seen lately, crypto markets are macro-sensitive assets. A more hawkish Fed stance and reduced odds of near-term rate cuts could lead to:
Lower liquidity expectations, weighing on crypto asset prices.
Stronger dollar pressure, potentially reducing Bitcoin’s appeal as an inflation hedge.
Higher volatility, as macro uncertainty intensifies and rate cut hopes fade.
For now, the Fed’s message is clear: monetary policy remains data-dependent, but a pivot is off the table unless economic conditions deteriorate sharply.
The market is currently rallying after Trump’s 90-day Tariff pause. However, Crypto investors hoping for tailwinds from rate cuts may have to wait.
Welcome to the US Morning Crypto News Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.
Grab a coffee to see what data says about the Bitcoin (BTC) price outlook, alongside insights into the current sentiment in the options market. Remember, this being the last Friday of April, monthly options expired today at 8:00 UTC on Deribit.
Strong Market Expectations of Bitcoin Reaching $100,000
Interestingly, Bitcoin traded well above its max pain or strike price of $86,000. Ordinarily, as options near expiration, an asset’s price would tend to gravitate toward its max pain level. While Bitcoin traded for $93,471 minutes before the options expiry, it is now selling for $94,581.
BeInCrypto contacted Bitfinex analysts for insights into the current market outlook and their perspective on what lies ahead for the Bitcoin price in the short term. According to the analysts, Bitcoin’s price could record further upside after clearing option-based resistance.
“Post-expiry, the market is leaning cautiously bullish, and with the $90,000 strike cluster now cleared, there’s less option-based resistance overhead,” Bitfinex analysts told BeInCrypto.
Further, the analysts observed that many traders have rolled exposure to higher strikes, with $95,000 and $100,000 showing increased call open interest for end-April and May expiries.
While this reflects the expected continued upside, the analysts did not rule out a potential short-term chop.
This aligns with Deribit analysts’ statements that the highest open interest for BTC options was around the $100,000 strike price. This indicates strong market expectations of Bitcoin reaching this level.
As BeInCrypto reported, the analysts ascribed this to traders selling cash-secured put options on Bitcoin. These traders also use stablecoins to collect premiums while buying BTC at lower prices.
BeInCrypto also reported that the Cumulative delta (CD) across BTC and related ETF (exchange-traded fund) options on Deribit reached $9 billion. Bitfinex analysts agree, citing rising spot flows and ETF demand.
“Spot flows and ETF demand have picked up significantly for BTC over the past few days and will now continue to dictate if BTC can establish $90,000 as support,” the analysts added.
Meanwhile, these forecasts add to the list of growing bullish bets on Bitcoin’s price, credibly confirming a sentiment shared in the previous US Crypto News publication.
However, despite strong prospects for more Bitcoin price gains, some analysts urge investors to temper their optimism. One is Innokenty Isers, the Chief Executive Officer at Paybis Exchange.
“Current market outlook suggests that Bitcoin price may face more stiff resistance moving forward. In the last two months, the uncertainty around the tariff war triggered an unusual concern for investors as many decided to temporarily steer clear of more volatile assets like Bitcoin,” Isers told BeInCrypto.
Moreover, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has spotlighted the inflationary risks the tariff war may introduce. Nevertheless, Isers acknowledged clear indications of sustained accumulation of BTC by institutional investors and market whales.
This chart shows that the top Bitcoin options by trading volume over the past 24 hours are call options with strike prices of $95,000 and $100,000, ahead of the May 2 expiry.
Byte-Sized Alpha
Bitcoin rebounds 25% in April, shifting market sentiment from fear to greed, per the Crypto Fear & Greed Index readings.
Cardano gained 15% in a week, holding a bullish structure despite a volume dip and early signs of consolidation near key price levels.
USD1 stablecoin, launched by World Liberty Financial, is subject to the EU’s MiCA regulations, which require compliance with transparency, reserve backing, and conflict of interest rules.
Defunct cryptocurrency exchange FTX has filed lawsuits against NFT Stars Limited and Kurosemi Inc., the operator of the Delysium platform, as part of its ongoing efforts to recover assets for creditor payouts.
The legal actions announced by FTX and its recovery trust are in response to the companies’ alleged failure to deliver tokens as stipulated in prior contractual agreements.
In addition to the current legal actions, FTX revealed that it is also engaging with several other token issuers to recover assets. The company added that further lawsuits will be filed against those who fail to cooperate.
“We urge token and coin issuers to return assets that rightfully belong to FTX, and are willing to initiate litigation barring adequate engagement. Our team continues to work tirelessly to maximize recoveries for the FTX Estate and return funds to creditors, including by filing two complaints against issuers who have repeatedly ignored our attempts to engage,” The FTX Estate’s statement read.
On February 18, 2025, FTX started its initial distributions of recovered funds. The initial round of payments was made to holders of approved claims in FTX’s Convenience Class. FTX also announced that the next distribution record date will be April 11, with payments expected to begin on May 30.
This second round of payments will include Class 5 Customer Entitlement Claims, Class 6 General Unsecured Claims, and additional Convenience Claims approved since the initial record date. This distribution is part of a broader plan to repay creditors.
Last month, FTX suffered another setback as Three Arrows Capital’s (3AC) claim was raised from $120 million to $1.5 billion. The amendment followed new findings about 3AC’s extensive dealings with FTX. It was approved despite objections from FTX.
Meanwhile, FTX’s collapse serves as a reminder of the systemic risks in the crypto industry. To avoid similar situations, US Senators have proposed the PROOF Act earlier this month.
The bill mandates that crypto exchanges keep customer funds separate from institutional assets. It also requires exchanges to submit monthly audits, called “Proof of Reserves,” conducted by neutral third-party firms. This aims to ensure transparency, verify asset availability, and enhance consumer protection.
According to a securities filing on Tuesday, Jack Mallers’ newly launched investment vehicle, Twenty One Capital, has acquired 4,812 Bitcointokens worth $458.7 million.
Backed by Tether, Cantor Fitzgerald, and SoftBank, the SPAC-born firm signals a new phase of corporate Bitcoin accumulation
Twenty One Capital Buys 4,812 Bitcoin Worth $458.7 Million
The purchase marks the firm’s first major Bitcoin acquisition since its formation in late April. It signals the start of an aggressive BTC accumulation strategy modeled after Michael Saylor’s Strategy.
The Bitcoin allocation, labeled “Initial PIPE Bitcoin,” was initially acquired by USDT issuer Tether. The stablecoin issuer and majority shareholder of Twenty One Capital. They structured the deal as part of a private investment in public equity (PIPE) transaction using gross proceeds from convertible notes.
Following the business combination that created the publicly traded entity, Tether transferred the BTC to Twenty One Capital for $458.7 million.
The company, trading under the ticker CEP, now holds a staggering $4.05 billion in Bitcoin. This makes it the third-largest corporate holder after Strategy and Marathon Digital. During its formation, they seeded its treasury with $3.6 billion in BTCvia a SPAC merger with Cantor Equity Partners.
“Twenty One Capital isn’t just stacking sats — it’s leading a generational shift in corporate capital allocation…Jack Mallers is taking the Saylor playbook and turning it into an arms race…For corporations to survive, they must mimic the Strategy’s process, they must ‘Saylorize’ or die,” Keiser told BeInCrypto.
Unlike traditional tech firms that hold BTC on the side, Twenty One Capital is designed to be Bitcoin-native at its core. This entails using equity and convertible debt as vehicles to acquire more BTC. The strategy reflects a broader transformation where companies are no longer “dabbling” in crypto. Instead, they are betting their business models on it.
The move also sharpens competition with entities like Metaplanet, Japan’s self-described “Asian MicroStrategy.” BeInCrypto reported that the firm recently ramped up BTC purchases through bond offerings.
Twenty One Capital’s alignment with powerhouses like Tether, Bitfinex, and Cantor Fitzgerald gives it a unique edge in liquidity, market access, and global infrastructure. This latest purchase goes beyond mimicking Strategy, 21 Capital is challenging it.
As corporate Bitcoin balance sheets gain momentum, Twenty One Capital’s aggressive entry may herald a second wave of institutional FOMO. This time, however, SPACs, sovereign-linked funds, and stablecoin giants drive the FOMO.
