According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in May has plunged from 57% to just 15%. This is due to President Trump’s 90-day tariff pause and newly released March FOMC minutes.
The March 18–19 FOMC minutes, released Tuesday, confirm that policymakers remain cautious on easing.
FOMC Minutes Reveal Hawkish Caution
While the Fed acknowledged solid economic growth and stable labor markets, officials noted that inflation is still running above the 2% target.
Many participants emphasized upside risks to inflation, particularly from broad-based tariff increases and potential supply chain disruptions.
Several Fed members observed that inflation prints for January and February came in higher than expected, and warned that the effects of new tariffs — particularly on core goods — may prove more persistent than anticipated.
Federal Reserve’s Interest Rate Cut Probability in May 2025. Source: CME FedWatch
Although participants supported maintaining current interest rates, they stressed that policy flexibility is essential as uncertainty surrounding trade, fiscal, and immigration policy clouds the outlook.
As of now, Trump’s decision to pause new tariffs for most countries for 90 days while raising Chinese tariffs to 125% has reduced fears of a full-blown trade war.
However, retaliatory action from China and elevated inflation expectations reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance. So, policymakers are signaling they are in no rush to cut rates.
What It Means for Crypto
As we have seen lately, crypto markets are macro-sensitive assets. A more hawkish Fed stance and reduced odds of near-term rate cuts could lead to:
Lower liquidity expectations, weighing on crypto asset prices.
Stronger dollar pressure, potentially reducing Bitcoin’s appeal as an inflation hedge.
Higher volatility, as macro uncertainty intensifies and rate cut hopes fade.
For now, the Fed’s message is clear: monetary policy remains data-dependent, but a pivot is off the table unless economic conditions deteriorate sharply.
The market is currently rallying after Trump’s 90-day Tariff pause. However, Crypto investors hoping for tailwinds from rate cuts may have to wait.
As we enter Q2 of 2025, the global crypto market finds itself steering a complex intersection of macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures.
BeInCrypto spoke with analysts Leena ElDeeb of 21Shares and Max Shannon of CoinShares, who offer distinct but insightful perspectives on the crypto space’s outlook for the new quarter.
Bitcoin’s Future: Bullish or Bearish?
The two analysts share a bullish outlook on Bitcoin, albeit with differing views on its short-term fluctuations. Leena ElDeeb sees the potential for Bitcoin to surpass $90,000, driven by macroeconomic factors such as a possible rate cut by the US Federal Reserve.
“February’s softer-than-expected CPI print boosted rate cut expectations. If rate cuts materialize, a wave of liquidity could reignite bullish momentum, pushing equities and Bitcoin past key resistance levels,” she told BeInCrypto.
In her view, Bitcoin could eventually hit a range between $150,000 and $200,000 by the year’s end, bolstered by growing regulatory clarity and political support, such as President Trump’s proposal for a strategic crypto reserve.
Max Shannon, on the other hand, remains more cautious about Bitcoin’s immediate future. He predicts that Bitcoin will continue to trade within a wide range of $70,000 to $90,000 in Q2, constrained by persistent tariff issues.
“The moment they [tariffs] get lifted will likely be a massive boon for the equities and crypto market,” he notes, indicating that a resolution could pave the way for Bitcoin’s next big move.
Both analysts acknowledge Ethereum’s struggles, particularly its nearly 40% drop in Q1. However, they also highlight key developments that could support a recovery in the next quarter.
ElDeeb points to Ethereum’s upcoming upgrade, the Pectra upgrade, which is expected to improve staking and network scalability.
“Ethereum’s staking is also about to be improved with the launch of Pectra. These changes are expected to boost the appeal of staking-enabled products,” she explained.
Additionally, she sees growing competition from other blockchain platforms like Solana and Sui, which are attracting retail users with faster and cheaper transactions. Despite this, ElDeeb remains optimistic about Ethereum’s long-term potential, particularly as scalability solutions begin to take effect.
Shannon is more skeptical of Ethereum’s future, specifically with its ongoing challenges in both the monetary and smart contract spaces.
“Ethereum is attempting to function both as a monetary asset, where it struggles to compete with Bitcoin, and as a smart contract platform, where it faces strong competition from Solana,” the CoinShares analyst stated.
Shannon also highlights Ethereum’s changing monetary policy and the increasing technical debt as concerns that could limit its growth in the short term.
The rise and fall of celebrity meme coins like TRUMP, MELANIA, and LIBRA were hot topics in Q1 2025. Both analysts agree that the hype around this category of tokens is unlikely to be sustained in the long run.
“The forthcoming cryptocurrency market rally is anticipated to be driven by significant advancements in decentralized finance (DeFi), particularly through innovative mechanisms that enhance token holder engagement,” she notes, citing Aave’s recent proposal to share revenue with AAVE token holders as a prime example of this trend.
On the flip side, Shannon suggests that the decline in meme coins and altcoins could be a sign of broader challenges in the altcoin market.
“The Melei controversy, pump.fun decline, and declining centralized and decentralized exchange volumes show altcoins could have a very hard time this year in my opinion,” he cautions.
As trading volumes continue to drop, Shannon forecasts that altcoins may continue to underperform.
“Even in a BTC bull run altcoins could underperform,” the analyst added.
The Road Ahead
Looking ahead to Q2 2025, both ElDeeb and Shannon anticipate continued market volatility. External macroeconomic conditions like US tariffs, interest rate decisions, and geopolitical factors will largely shape the market.
While ElDeeb maintains a generally optimistic view, predicting a recovery for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, Shannon advises caution, particularly with altcoins.
For investors, diversification remains key. ElDeeb emphasizes the value of Bitcoin’s fixed supply and decentralization, which have historically helped it recover from turbulent periods.
“We consider these market corrections as great market entry points,” she says.
Shannon, meanwhile, stressed the importance of caution in navigating the altcoin space. He added that Bitcoin could be the best bet for those seeking stability.
Hedera’s HBAR has bucked the broader market dip to record a slight 1% rally over the past 24 hours. As of this writing, the altcoin trades at $0.17.
This upward movement comes amidst signs of a resurgence in new demand for the altcoin, as highlighted by key technical indicators on the daily chart.
HBAR Bullish Trend Gains Strength
Readings from HBAR’s Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reveal that on April 9, the token’s MACD line (blue) climbed above its signal line (orange), forming a “golden cross.”
A golden cross occurs when the MACD line crosses above the signal line, signaling a potential bullish trend and increased buying pressure. This confirms that HBAR’s upward momentum is gaining strength, especially as investors commonly view this pattern as a buy signal.
Moreover, as of this writing, HBAR’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is poised to break above the 50-neutral line, highlighting the spike in fresh demand for the altcoin. It is currently at 49.17 and remains in an uptrend.
The RSI indicator measures an asset’s overbought and oversold market conditions. It ranges between 0 and 100. Values above 70 suggest that the asset is overbought and due for a price decline, while values under 30 indicate that the asset is oversold and may witness a rebound.
At 49.17 and climbing, HBAR’s RSI signals a gradual shift from bearish territory into a more neutral zone. If the altcoin’s RSI continues to rise above 50, it would signal increasing bullish sentiment, driving up HBAR’s value.
HBAR Eyes $0.19 Amid Strong Buying Pressure
HBAR’s surge over the past day has pushed its price above the key resistance formed at $0.16, which has kept the token in a downtrend since March 30.
With growing buying pressure, the token could flip this zone into a support floor. If successful, it could propel HBAR’s price to $0.19.
