Bitcoin surged back above $105,000 following a dramatic announcement by President Donald Trump confirming a complete ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
Trump declared the 12-day war “officially ended” following a 24-hour dual-stage ceasefire to be initiated first by Iran, then by Israel.
The Market Impact of Iran-Israel Ceasefire
Crypto markets reacted swiftly. Over the weekend, Bitcoin dipped below $100,000 hours earlier amid news of a potential Strait of Hormuz shutdown. Today, BTC rebounded by over 5% on the announcement.
Ethereum also rallied, climbing back above $2,400, while risk sentiment improved across broader digital asset markets.
Crypto Market Rallies After Ceasefire Announcement. Source: BeInCrypto
The ceasefire removed immediate fears of further military escalation and global oil disruption. Also, the de-escalation was widely anticipated, as oil prices began to drop earlier despite Iran targeting US bases in Qatar.
Earlier in the day, Iran’s parliament approved a proposal to shut the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 25% of global oil shipments.
Had that closure gone into effect, it would have sharply driven up oil prices, potentially reigniting inflation and delaying central bank rate cuts.
Instead, the ceasefire has reduced energy market pressure and restored some degree of geopolitical stability, prompting capital to flow back into risk assets.
Trump Ceasefire Announcement in Iran-Israel War. Source: Truth Social
Markets will closely watch whether both sides adhere to the 24-hour ceasefire protocol and if the Strait of Hormuz remains open.
If the truce holds, macroeconomic stability may return quickly, boosting both equities and crypto. However, any breaches or renewed tension could send Bitcoin back into risk-off territory.
Pi Network (PI) is showing mounting technical weakness, down nearly 15% over the past seven days and 4.4% in the last 24 hours, with its market cap now sitting at $5.12 billion. Trading volume has surged 25% in the past day, reaching $104.6 million, signaling heightened activity amid a deepening downtrend.
Key indicators like the ADX, CMF, and EMA structure all point to growing bearish momentum, with selling pressure intensifying and price action struggling to hold support. Unless momentum shifts, PI appears vulnerable to further downside in the near term.
PI Network’s Bearish Trend Strengthens
The Directional Movement Index (DMI) chart for Pi Network (PI) shows a notable rise in the Average Directional Index (ADX), which has climbed to 21 from 11.46 just a day earlier.
The ADX measures the strength of a trend, regardless of direction. Generally, an ADX below 20 suggests a weak or non-trending market, while readings above 20 indicate that a trend is beginning to gain strength.
With PI’s ADX now breaking above this threshold, the data suggests that a more decisive move—either bullish or bearish—may be developing.
Looking deeper, the +DI (Positive Directional Indicator) has dropped to 13.21 from 20.93 two days ago, while the -DI (Negative Directional Indicator) has surged to 31.92 from 23.48.
This widening gap, with -DI clearly dominant, signals increasing downward pressure on PI. When the -DI rises above the +DI alongside a strengthening ADX, it typically confirms a bearish trend gaining momentum.
In short, the indicators are aligning to suggest PI may be entering a stronger downtrend, and traders should watch closely for follow-through in price action.
Indicators Show Strong Selling Pressure
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) for Pi Network (PI) has dropped sharply to -0.20, down from 0.08 three days ago and -0.08 just one day ago.
The CMF is a volume-weighted indicator that measures the flow of money into and out of an asset over a set period, typically 20 or 21 days.
Values above 0 generally indicate buying pressure and accumulation, while values below 0 suggest selling pressure and distribution. A CMF reading beyond ±0.10 is usually considered significant, with deeper negative values pointing to sustained outflows.
With PI’s CMF now at -0.20—its lowest reading since May 17—there’s a strong signal that sellers are in control.
This steep drop reflects increasing capital leaving the asset, and when combined with recent price weakness, it reinforces a bearish outlook.
If CMF continues to decline or holds at deeply negative levels, it may suggest that any bounce attempts could face heavy resistance due to a lack of bullish volume support.
PI Price Eyes Lower Support
The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) indicators for PI remain bearish, with short-term EMAs positioned below long-term ones—a clear sign that downward momentum is still in control.
The growing distance between these EMA lines reinforces the strength of the current downtrend. If PI continues to slide, the next support level lies at $0.66, and losing that could open the door for a further decline toward $0.57.
On the flip side, if PI manages to reverse its current trajectory, the first key resistance to watch is at $0.727. A breakout above that level could signal a short-term recovery and potentially send the price higher toward the $0.86 mark.
However, until short-term EMAs start to flatten or cross above the longer-term ones, any bullish attempts may remain vulnerable to selling pressure.
Bitcoin has seen some volatility recently, with its price facing significant challenges. Despite these setbacks, the cryptocurrency is forming a bullish pattern.
Investors, particularly short-term holders (STHs), have shown resilience by moving towards accumulation, which supports the notion of potential recovery in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin Investors Are Hopeful
Bitcoin’s realized losses have been a key indicator of the current market’s struggles. This week, the realized losses across all market participants reached $818 million per day, which is among the highest values in recent times. The only larger recorded loss was the yen-carry-trade unwind on August 5, 2024, which totaled $1.34 billion.
These substantial losses reveal that many investors have been forced to sell their positions below their cost basis, pressured by the ongoing market downturn. Despite this, the significant realized losses suggest that many investors are feeling the weight of the current volatility, yet some continue to hold their positions.
On a more positive note, Bitcoin’s network growth has been on the rise. The number of short-term holders has increased, with 50,000 more wallets on the network compared to a month ago. Specifically, there has been a rise of 37,390 new wallets holding less than 0.1 BTC, and 12,754 wallets holding between 0.1 and 100 BTC.
The growth in the number of Bitcoin wallets reflects strong conviction among these short-term investors. Despite the ongoing price fluctuations, their continued involvement in the market indicates that many are looking beyond the current downturn. This is an important factor in supporting Bitcoin’s potential recovery, as it suggests that the base of holders remains strong and that interest in the cryptocurrency is far from fading.
Bitcoin’s price has shown a 6% recovery in the last 24 hours, trading at $92,776 as of the latest update. The cryptocurrency is nearing the critical resistance level of $93,625, which it has struggled to breach in recent days. A successful breach of this resistance could mark the beginning of a bullish breakout, pushing Bitcoin higher.
If Bitcoin manages to flip $93,625 into support, it could pave the way for a rise towards $95,761. Such a move would also indicate a potential breakout from the descending broadening wedge pattern that has dominated the market in recent weeks. Should this happen, Bitcoin could find itself heading towards the psychologically significant $100,000 mark, marking a strong recovery from its recent volatility.
However, if Bitcoin fails to break through $93,625, it could fall back to the $89,800 support level. A failure to hold at this point could delay the recovery further and even push Bitcoin to test lower levels, with $87,041 acting as a crucial support. A move below this level would invalidate the bullish outlook and extend the current downtrend.
The FOMC concluded its latest meeting by announcing that it will not cut US interest rates. This decision was largely priced in, and the crypto market hasn’t seriously suffered.
Rate cuts would’ve provided a bullish narrative to juice fresh investment, which the market desperately needs. Bearish signals are growing alongside fears of a US recession.
However, the FOMC made its report to the public and claimed that no rate cuts would be taking place.
“The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%,” it said.
This news more or less fits with the industry’s expectations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell already clearly stated that the FOMC doesn’t plan to cut interest rates.
The industry hoped that rate cuts could provide a bullish narrative, especially while the markets are afraid. For now, it seems like it’ll need to find an optimistic signal somewhere else.
Despite uncertainty from tariffs and bold fiscal policies, officials expect interest rates to drop by another half percentage point by 2025. Since the Fed typically adjusts rates in 0.25% steps, that means we’re likely to see two cuts this year.
Federal Reserves Still Project Two Rate Cuts This Year. Source: CNBC
Rate cuts would be bullish for investors, especially for risk-on assets like cryptoassets. However, this isn’t the Federal Reserve’s only concern. The FOMC alluded to its “dual mandate” when denying rate cuts. In other words, it needs to juggle investor concerns with consumer inflation fears, uncertainty around Trump’s tariffs, and a possible US recession.
If the FOMC were to slash interest rates, it would likely boost US inflation. The most recent CPI report was better than expected, and some in the industry hoped that this would build confidence. Ultimately, the main hopes rested with President Trump, who personally advocated for rate cuts. However, he didn’t make a major intervention.
It’s not all bad, though. The FOMC also announced would slow Quantitative tightening (QT) by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion.
Some members of the community were pleased by this news, as slower QT can increase market liquidity. This announcement is at least some consolation for investors.
In any event, this lack of rate cuts was expected and priced in. The FOMC didn’t shock anybody by refusing to cut interest rates, and the market hasn’t been chaotic. A few of the top-performing cryptoassets suffered minor losses, but no substantial drops have materialized.
Crypto Reacts to FOMC Decision. Source: BeInCrypto
The crypto industry has been desperate for a bullish narrative, and some major players are visibly cracking at the seams.
The FOMC, however, did not provide this narrative via rate cuts. Hopefully, crypto will find something else to be optimistic about before a full-blown market correction takes hold.
