Crypto market shows strength heading into a new week as Ethereum price (ETH) gains another 4% leading the rally, followed by similar gains in XRP, SOL, ADA, DOGE. Investors are keen on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Tuesday, with expectations of commentary on Fed rate cuts amid mounting pressure for resignations from the Trump
Hedera (HBAR) enters May in a fragile yet potentially explosive technical setup, with futures activity cooling and price movements closely tied to Bitcoin’s momentum. HBAR Futures volume remains subdued, suggesting a decline in speculative interest compared to earlier this year.
Meanwhile, HBAR continues to track Bitcoin’s performance with amplified volatility. As BTC flirts with the $100,000 level and sentiment shifts bullish, HBAR could either break through key resistance levels and rally toward $0.40—or face a deeper correction if technical support fails.
Low HBAR Futures Volume Points to Cooling Speculation
HBAR Futures volume is currently at $118 million, up from a recent low of $76 million on April 19—its lowest point in the last three months.
This follows a steady decline from much higher levels seen earlier in the year.
Notably, HBAR Futures open interest had peaked at $1.3 billion on March 1 but has not surpassed $300 million since April 12, signaling a significant drop in speculative activity around the token.
Hedera Futures refer to derivative contracts that allow traders to speculate on the future price of HBAR, the native token of the Hedera network. Both retail and institutional participants often use these contracts to hedge risk or take leveraged positions.
Futures volumes and open interest are key indicators of market sentiment and liquidity—higher volumes typically suggest stronger conviction or increased trading activity. At the same time, declining figures may reflect reduced interest or confidence in near-term price action.
The current lower levels suggest HBAR’s recent price movements may have been more influenced by spot demand than leveraged speculation.
Hedera’s High Correlation with BTC Could Drive Next Rally
HBAR has recently shown a high correlation with Bitcoin (BTC), often amplifying the moves of the broader crypto market leader.
When BTC rallies, HBAR tends to rise even more sharply; conversely, HBAR often experiences deeper pullbacks during corrections. This pattern reflects Hedera’s sensitivity to market sentiment and positioning as a higher-beta asset in the crypto space.
As a result, shifts in Bitcoin’s trajectory, especially during periods of strong momentum, can significantly influence HBAR’s price action.
BTC and HBAR Performance in the last 30 Days. Source: Messari.
With Bitcoin up 13% in the past 30 days and now sitting just 6.3% below the $100,000 mark, the next leg higher could have a strong spillover effect on HBAR.
On-chain data shows a recovery in BTC’s apparent demand, while institutional sentiment is gradually improving, with ETF inflows showing early signs of a rebound. If Bitcoin breaks above $100,000, HBAR could benefit from renewed capital inflows and rising market enthusiasm.
Given HBAR’s tendency to outperform BTC in bullish phases, a decisive Bitcoin breakout could be a powerful catalyst for a broader move in Hedera.
Key Levels to Watch as HBAR Faces Bullish Breakout or Death Cross
HBAR price faces a critical technical setup heading into May, with the potential for a sharp move in either direction. On the bullish side, if HBAR can attract strong buying pressure and establish a sustained uptrend, it could climb as much as 123% to reach $0.40.
To do so, the token must first break through a series of key resistance levels at $0.20, $0.258, $0.32, and $0.37—each of which has previously acted as a rejection point during past rallies.
A successful breakout through these levels could signal renewed momentum and broader market confidence in Hedera.
However, downside risks remain firmly in play. HBAR’s EMA lines show signs of an impending death cross—a bearish pattern in which the short-term average moves below the long-term average, indicating that a deeper correction may be ahead.
If this formation is confirmed, HBAR could first test support at $0.16. Failure to hold that level may lead to further losses toward $0.124, and in a more aggressive downtrend, prices could decline to $0.0053.
Michael Saylor is doubling down on Bitcoin again. In a recent CNBC interview, he hinted that Strategy could eventually acquire up to 1.5 million Bitcoin.
This shows how strongly Saylor believes in Bitcoin as the ultimate store of value, and this is a sign that he is not slowing down.
Strategy (formerly Microstrategy) is the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with a staggering 628,791 BTC, which is about 3% of the total Bitcoin supply that will ever exist. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor suggested that Strategy may one day hold up to 1.5 million BTC, worth over $100 billion at current prices.
“I don’t think we’ll get all of it. I don’t think that the range of 3 to 7% is too much,” he said.
Saylor says Bitcoin is “digital capital” at the core of a unique business model.
A unique model is being followed at the company where Bitcoin is accumulated, and preferred stock is issued against it. This helps remove volatility for investors and offers yield. A recent stock offering planned at $500 million was raised to $2.5 billion due to high demand, making it the largest public offering of the year so far.
Bitcoin Treasuries Are Going Global
While Strategy holds a massive 3% chunk, Saylor welcomes the growth of the Bitcoin treasury movement. “There are now 160 public companies capitalizing on Bitcoin, up from just 60 last year,” he said. Companies from Japan, France, the UK, and the US are joining the wave, with MetaPlanet, Capital B, Smarter Web, and Pompliano’s 21 among them.
Saylor said that Bitcoin is gradually replacing traditional stores of value like foreign real estate, public equity, and even gold.
He also pointed out that companies like Apple and Microsoft are restricted from buying each other’s stock or the broader S&P 500. So instead, they repurchase their own shares, or now they turn to Bitcoin.
MSTR Earnings Soar, Institutions Stack Up BTC
Strategy crushed expectations this quarter, posting earnings of $32.52 per share, over 35,000% above the forecast of -$0.09. This shows that Saylor’s bold strategy is clearly paying off.
Other institutions also continue to stack up Bitcoin. Coinbase CEO, Brian Armstrong, just confirmed they added 2,509 BTC in Q2 alone. This has pushed Coinbase into the top 10 list of public companies holding Bitcoin, surpassing even Tesla.
Metaplanet recently revealed plans to raise $3.73B via preferred shares to fund its bold Bitcoin target of 210,000 BTC by 2027.
It’s as evident as ever – the Bitcoin corporate adoption wave is gaining momentum and Strategy is leading!
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Michael Saylor is doubling down on Bitcoin again. In a recent CNBC interview, he hinted that Strategy could eventually acquire up to 1.5 million Bitcoin. This shows how strongly Saylor believes in Bitcoin as the ultimate store of value, and this is a sign that he is not slowing down. $MSTR is Amplified Bitcoin.$STRK is …
One year ago, Germany sold off 50,000 bitcoins, completely liquidating its stockpile. In the intervening time, the price of BTC doubled, and a similar today would’ve netted more than $6.64 billion.
This example could provide a useful cautionary tale for leaders around the globe. Even if a government is determined to liquidate its holdings, a few delays could’ve brought Germany much larger returns.
German Government’s Bitcoin Portfolio In 2024. Source: Arkham
Almost exactly one year later, this decision is looking extremely unfortunate. Germany sold this Bitcoin for $3.13 billion, but the asset’s price has gone off the charts since. Compared to last July, BTC actually doubled.
If the nation had 50,000 BTC to sell today, this would net over $6.64 billion. Instead, its wallet only holds 0.0069 BTC, which was accumulated from anonymous users donating minuscule quantities.
The sale looks like an even more unforced error because Germany today is not particularly anti-crypto. The nation currently issues more MiCA licenses than any other EU member, signifying an active local industry.
Nonetheless, the nation bungled a huge windfall. So, what lessons can the world learn from this?
BREAKING NEWS: The German government is selling another approximately 5,000 #Bitcoin worth around $300 million. I feel very sad for the German people. Among all the bad decisions being made for the country at the moment, this turns out to be the worst. pic.twitter.com/tbkOJZsMh2
Under President Biden, the United States also began liquidating its holdings. Between these two nations and Ukraine, which also performed a complete liquidation, state-owned reserves dropped by 12%.
However, even Biden’s partial liquidation proved influential, as it motivated President Trump’s push for a Bitcoin Reserve. The other two main national holders, China and the UK, did not acquire or dispose of any assets last year.
Although these nations don’t have a formal reserve established, their custodied assets have nonetheless become substantially more valuable.
All that is to say, world governments should consider Germany’s decision if they seize huge quantities of Bitcoin. Even if a political establishment is determined to liquidate, it may be prudent to postpone this as long as possible.
If the German government had followed the most common advice by every Bitcoin advocate, HODL, its economy could have netted billions and potentially more in the future.