Cardano (ADA) is down more than 6% on Thursday but remains up nearly 40% over the past seven days. After surging to $1.15 following its inclusion in the US crypto strategic reserve, ADA has struggled to stay above $1 in recent days.
Some users are now questioning its inclusion in the reserve, raising concerns about its price. With whale accumulation slowing and resistance at $1 proving difficult to break, ADA’s next move will depend on whether bullish momentum can return or if selling pressure pushes it lower.
ADA ADX Shows The Uptrend Is Still Strong, But It’s Not As Strong As Before
Despite the decline in ADX, it remains above the 25 threshold, indicating that the ongoing uptrend still has strength, though momentum has slightly weakened.
The Average Directional Index (ADX) measures trend strength on a scale from 0 to 100, with readings above 25 signaling a strong trend and values below 20 suggesting weak or nonexistent momentum.
With ADA in an uptrend and ADX at 32.5, the trend remains intact but may not be as strong as it was three days ago.
If ADX continues to decline, the trend could lose momentum, leading to a potential slowdown or consolidation. However, if ADX stabilizes or rises again, ADA could maintain its upward trajectory and push toward new resistance levels.
Cardano Whales Are Not Accumulating
The number of Cardano whales – addresses holding between 1 million and 10 million ADA – has declined slightly in the past few days after a strong increase between March 1 and March 4, when it rose from 2,442 to 2,471.
Addresses Holding Between 1 Million and 10 Million ADA. Source: Santiment.
Tracking these whales is important because large holders can influence market liquidity, volatility, and price trends. A rising number of whales often signals accumulation, which can drive prices higher, while a decline suggests potential profit-taking or reduced confidence.
With the current whale count slightly below its recent surge, ADA’s recent uptrend could slow if more large holders begin selling. However, if accumulation resumes, it could support continued price gains.
Will Cardano Test $1 Soon?
Cardano’s EMA lines indicate a bullish trend, with short-term EMAs positioned above long-term ones.
However, despite this positive setup, Cardano price has struggled to break above $1 in recent days after a sharp correction following its 71% surge on March 2. This suggests that while momentum remains intact, resistance at $1 is proving difficult to overcome.
If the current uptrend reverses into a downtrend, ADA could test support at $0.818, with a break below that level potentially leading to $0.75. A stronger selloff could push the price as low as $0.63 or even $0.58.
On the other hand, if ADA regains momentum, it could test $1 again, and a breakout above this key resistance could send the price toward $1.17, a level it nearly reached during the March 2 surge.
Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.
Grab a coffee as we analyze Standard Chartered’s Bitcoin (BTC) price projections. According to the bank, Bitcoin price could hit $500,000 as global institutions accumulate Strategy’s MSTR stock for indirect exposure to Bitcoin.
Crypto News of the Day: Standard Chartered’s Bold Bitcoin Prediction
Bitcoin was trading for $105,178, up by a modest 2.27% in the last 24 hours. In recent developments, the pioneer crypto market capitalization has ascended to an all-time high of $2.09 trillion.
However, analysts hold that institutional interest has much to do with Bitcoin’s value surge. Firstly, Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds), which offer Traditional Finance (TradFi) players indirect exposure to BTC, drive institutional interest.
In the same way, institutions are gaining indirect exposure to Bitcoin via Strategy’s MSTR stock. A recent US Crypto News publication indicated that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) held 576,230 BTC as of May 19.
Holding a significant amount of Bitcoin on its balance sheet, Strategy’s MSTR stock price correlates closely with Bitcoin’s price movements.
MSTR vs. BTC performance in the past year. Source: ivanhoff.com on X
Analysts ascribe this correlation to a dynamic where Bitcoin is the base layer while MSTR operates as a vehicle with different risks, mechanics, and rewards.
Against this backdrop, BeInCrypto contacted Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered. According to Kendrick, Bitcoin is still on course to hit $500,000 before the end of Trump’s second administration.
Kendrick ascribes this to deepening institutional adoption, particularly through indirect exposure via MicroStrategy’s MSTR shares.
Standard Chartered Says Increasing Allocations to MSTR Is Bullish for Bitcoin
Newly released Q1 2025 13F filings from the US SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) support the bank’s bullish thesis. Specifically, Strategy saw increasing allocations to MSTR by a range of global sovereign and quasi-sovereign entities.
“As more investors gain access to the asset and as volatility falls, we believe portfolios will migrate towards their optimal level from an underweight starting position in Bitcoin,” Kendrick said in an email to BeInCrypto.
While direct holdings of Bitcoin ETFs declined slightly overall, largely due to the State of Wisconsin Investment Board selling its entire 3,400 BTC-equivalent position in BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, other entities quietly increased exposure via MSTR, which Kendrick described as a “Bitcoin proxy.”
“Government entities increased their holdings of Strategy Incorporated (MSTR), which typically trades like a Bitcoin proxy. Entities in Norway, Switzerland, and South Korea reported significant MSTR increases, and Saudi Arabia added a very small position for the first time,” Kendrick told BeInCrypto.
The Standard Chartered executive emphasized that while Bitcoin ETF flows were “unexciting,” the MSTR accumulation trend was the real story this quarter.
“The MSTR ownership detail was where the excitement was,” he added.
Geoff Kendrick went further, detailing Standard Chartered’s analysis of the filings. Based on their analysis:
Norway added 700 BTC-equivalent via MSTR, now holding 6,300 BTC-equivalent.
Switzerland also added 700 BTC-equivalent, reaching 2,300 BTC-equivalent.
South Korea added 700 BTC-equivalent, bringing its total to 1,300 BTC-equivalent.
US state funds (California, New York, North Carolina, Kentucky) added 1,000 BTC-equivalent collectively, now at 3,300 BTC-equivalent.
Saudi Arabia’s Central Bank opened a small MSTR position—its first.
Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi’s quasi-sovereign wealth fund Mubadala added 300 BTC equivalent via ETF holdings, increasing its position to 5,000 BTC equivalent.
“SEC 13F data for Q1 supports our thesis that Bitcoin is attracting a wider range of buyers. While data on Bitcoin ETF holdings was disappointing, MSTR – a Bitcoin proxy – saw increased buying. Overall sovereign positions were unchanged due to the Wisconsin pension fund selling its ETF holdings,” Kendrick concluded.
The data reinforce Standard Chartered’s outlook that institutional and sovereign flows—both direct and indirect—will be a key driver of Bitcoin’s ascent to $500,000 in the coming years.
Chart of the Day
Governement holdings of BTC ETFs and MSTR. Source: Standard Chartered
This chart illustrates the total government holdings of Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy’s MSTR stock from Q4 2023 to Q1 2025, measured in ‘000 (thousands) BTC equivalents. Based on the chart, holdings have grown steadily, peaking in Q1 2025 at around 18,000 BTC.
The chart shows that key contributors include Abu Dhabi (ETFs), Norway, Sweden, South Korea, France, New York, Wisconsin (ETFs), Michigan (ETFs), Switzerland, Liechtenstein, California, North Carolina, Saudi Arabia, and Kentucky, with varying contributions across quarters.
Byte-Sized Alpha
Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:
XRP is up more than 7% in the last 24 hours, bringing its market cap near $150 billion. The crypto community is now debating how its inclusion in the US crypto strategic reserve will impact its long-term price action.
Attention is also on the upcoming White House Crypto Summit on March 7, which could play a key role in shaping market sentiment. Whether XRP continues its rally or faces new resistance will depend on these developments and whether technical indicators confirm a sustained uptrend.
XRP DMI Shows Buyers Are Still In Control
XRP’s DMI shows that its ADX is currently at 18.49, down from 36.2 four days ago, indicating that the strength of its trend has weakened significantly.
The +DI (positive directional index) is at 25.1, down from 50, while the -DI (negative directional index) has risen to 14.4 from 9.3.
This shift suggests that bullish momentum has faded while selling pressure has slightly increased, making it harder for XRP to establish a strong uptrend.
The Average Directional Index (ADX) measures trend strength on a scale from 0 to 100, with readings above 25 signaling a strong trend and values below 20 indicating weak or nonexistent momentum.
XRP’s ADX at 18.49 suggests that its current attempt to form an uptrend lacks strength. The declining +DI shows buyers could be losing control, while the rising -DI indicates sellers are gaining ground.
If this trend continues, XRP may struggle to sustain an upward move, but if ADX picks up again and +DI rebounds, bullish momentum could return.
XRP Active Addresses Just Hit A New All-Time High
XRP’s 7-day active addresses have surged to 1.16 million, marking their highest level ever.
A rising number of active addresses often signals increased adoption and interest, which can support price growth. Despite the crypto community questioning whether XRP should be included in the US crypto strategic reserve, this spike in activity suggests strong network participation.
If this trend continues, it could help sustain bullish momentum for XRP, potentially driving prices higher.
Will A Golden Cross Make XRP Surge Soon?
XRP’s EMA lines indicate that a golden cross could form soon, as short-term moving averages continue to rise. If this bullish signal materializes, XRP price could test resistance at $2.74, with a breakout potentially sending the price to $2.99 and even $3.15.
“The approach to establishing strategic reserves is contentious and may require either an executive order or Congressional authorization, potentially undermining long-term policy stability. While Trump’s initiatives are expected to boost market confidence and attract institutional investments in the short term, uncertainties remain over policy effectiveness, Congressional support, and international market reactions in the medium to long term. Investors should monitor these developments closely and adjust their strategies accordingly.”
Bitcoin (BTC) is up 9% over the past week and is currently trying to establish support above the key $88,000 level. Momentum indicators like the DMI and Ichimoku Cloud are showing clear bullish signals, with buyers firmly in control.
If this trajectory continues, BTC could soon test higher resistances near $88,000 and potentially aim for $90,000 and beyond. However, analysts warn that renewed uncertainty around Trump’s trade tariffs could disrupt the rally and trigger a pullback toward the $81,000 support zone.
Bitcoin DMI Show Buyers In Full Control
Bitcoin’s DMI chart shows a notable rise in trend strength, with the ADX climbing to 29.54 from 24.07 yesterday.
This increase suggests growing momentum behind the current move, pushing the ADX close to the 30 threshold—widely seen as confirmation of a strong, sustained trend.
A rising ADX doesn’t indicate direction on its own, but when paired with directional indicators, it helps identify the prevailing force in the market.
Looking at those directional indicators, the +DI is currently at 23.47 and has remained steady between 21 and 23 over the past two days.
Meanwhile, the -DI has dropped sharply to 9.45 from 16.65, signaling a significant decline in bearish pressure.
This widening gap between bullish and bearish momentum points to buyers taking control, and if the ADX continues to rise above 30, it could validate a new bullish phase for BTC.
BTC Ichimoku Cloud Shows A Clear Bullish Structure
Bitcoin’s Ichimoku Cloud chart continues to lean bullish, with price holding firmly above both the Tenkan-sen (blue line) and Kijun-sen (red line).
Looking ahead, the Kumo (cloud) is green and steadily rising, which reinforces a positive outlook for the coming sessions. The price is well above the cloud, indicating the trend is bullish and also firmly established.
There’s also a clear gap between the current candle and the cloud, suggesting that the market has room to retrace without shifting the overall structure.
As long as the price stays above the Kijun-sen and the cloud remains green, the bullish trend remains technically intact.
Will Bitcoin Break Above $90,000 Soon?
If Bitcoin price maintains its current momentum, it could soon challenge the resistance at $88,839, with $90,000 as a psychological milestone.
Should the uptrend remain strong, further targets lie at $92,920 and potentially $98,484, marking a continuation of the bullish structure.
However, crypto analyst and Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin warns that this momentum could be short-lived. He notes that renewed uncertainty around Trump’s trade tariffs might weigh on BTC:
“The caveat here is that all this positive momentum could disappear in a puff of smoke if there’s any backpedalling on tariffs or an unexpected shock announcement – which we all know is always a possibility. In fact, we continue to have constant back-and-forth on tariffs: exemptions on electronics turned out to be temporary, the details of when tariffs will come in are lacking, and so on,” Puckrin told BeInCrypto.
He also defends that the $81,000 support could be tested again:
“This, perhaps, explains why Bitcoin is, once again, in a “wait and see” pattern, with low liquidations at under $200 million pointing to uncertainty in the market. If we don’t see any external shocks, $88,000-$90,000 is the next range to watch, with liquidity pool clusters at this level suggesting we will see an uptick of volatility here. However, a short-term correction to re-test support at $81,000 would be healthy and, as long as BTC remains above this threshold, would even point to a sustainable price recovery,”
Overall, it looks like the current macroeconomic factors are priced in. Yet, the market is cautious about sudden surprises, as Trump’s recent tariffs went beyond any conventional economic trend and disrupted almost every global financial market.
