Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Ripple (XRP) pulled back slightly on Friday as focus shifted to the US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data and Donald Trump’s crypto summit. BTC price retreated 2%, while ETH and XRP fell by 4.2% and 1.32%. This retreat could fade if the US publishes weak NFP data, which will lead to more US dollar index sell-off.
US Dollar Index Crashes Ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls Data
BTC, ETH, and XRP prices retreated even as the US dollar index (DXY) tumbled to the lowest level since November 5. It fell to $103.6, down by about 6% from its highest level this year as hopes that the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates rose.
The nonfarm payrolls data will likely provide more color about this. Economists expect the data to reveal that the labor market softened in February as tariff fears rose and as Elon Musk led a purge of the federal workforce. On Wednesday, a report by ADP showed that the private sector created 77k jobs, much lower than the expected 154k.
A weak labor report will increase the odds that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more times than expected. A dovish Fed would lead to a softer US dollar index, which would in turn propel Bitcoin’s price higher. In an X post, Jamie Coutts, the Chief Crypto Analyst at RealVision said:
“When looking at this recent move in the DXY through a historical lens, it’s challenging to be anything but bullish. I ran a signal screen for 3-day negative moves of more than 2% & -2.5% and found they have all occurred at Bitcoin bear market troughs (inflection points) or mid-cycle bull markets (trend continuations). “
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple prices will react to the Trump crypto summit. While this summit will be bullish for crypto, a pullback cannot be ruled out since market participants have already priced in it.
BTC, ETH, XRP Price Predictions
The crypto market will be in the spotlight after the US NFP and crypto summit. So, let’s explore some of the support and resistance levels of popular coins like BTC, ETH, and XRP prices.
BTC Price Forecast
The daily chart shows that BTC price is holding steady above the support at $85,000 and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average. It is also steadily above the lowest level this month. At the same time, Bitcoin has faced stiff resistance between $93,000 and $95,000.
BTC needs to surge above that resistance to confirm more gains to the psychological point at $100,000. A drop below the 200-day moving average at $85,850 will invalidate the bullish outlook and risk dropping to this month’s low at $78,100.
ETH Price Technical Analysis
Ethereum price is hanging at a crucial support level ahead of the nonfarm payrolls data. It is trading at $2,190, a few points above the key support level at $2,123, the lowest swing on February 3, September, 6, and August 5 last year. That is a sign that there is an indecision among bulls and bears, with bears being fearful of going short below that level.
The most bearish Ethereum price forecast will be confirmed if it drops below the year-to-date low of $1,996. A drop below that level will confirm the triple-top pattern that formed on the weekly chart and point to more downside. A bullish view will be confirmed if it moves above $2,553, the highest swing on May 2.
XRP Price Technical Analysis
Like Bitcoin, XRP price does not have a well-defined trend ahead of the nonfarm payrolls data. On the daily chart, there are signs that it has formed a head and shoulders pattern, a popular bearish sign.
This pattern means that the Ripple price prediction is bearish as long as it remains below the right and left shoulders at $2.90. This means that Ripple may crash below $2 as that CoinGape article predicted.
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