Amid Bitcoin’s recent struggle to stabilize above the critical $105,000 price level, on-chain data has revealed a trend.
The total circulating supply held by short-term holders (STHs) has surged significantly over the past few days, a signal that historically leans bearish for the coin’s near-term price action.
BTC Under Pressure as Weak Hands Accumulate
According to Glassnode, the total supply of coins held by BTC STHs plunged to a year-to-date low of 2.24 million coins on June 22 and has since rebounded strongly. At 2.31 million, these newer or more reactive investors, typically called “weak hands” or “paper hands,” have bought 70,000 coins.
BTC Total Supply Held by Short-Term Holders. Source: Glassnode
STHs are investors who have held their coins for less than 155 days. The group is historically known for being more sensitive to price fluctuations. Therefore, when their accumulation spikes, an asset is at risk because they will likely exit the market quickly at the first sign of uncertainty, amplifying volatility.
Additionally, data from Glassnode confirms that this trend occurs alongside a slight reduction in holdings by Long-Term Holders (LTHs). According to the data provider, their total supply holdings have dipped by 0.13%.
BTC Total Supply Held by Long-Term Holders. Source: Glassnode
As these investors offload some of their coins, the market’s underlying support may weaken. This makes BTC more susceptible to sharp price swings in the near term.
BTC Struggles Under Bearish Weight
The lengthening red bars of BTC’s BBTrend reflect the steady buildup in bearish pressure. This consistent growth signals that sellers are gradually regaining market control, with downward momentum intensifying.
The BBTrend measures the strength and direction of a trend based on the expansion and contraction of Bollinger Bands. When it returns red bars, the asset’s price consistently closes near the lower Bollinger Band, reflecting sustained selling pressure and hinting at the potential for further downside.
If this continues, the coin could extend its decline and plummet to $104,709.
Immutable X (IMX) has shown positive momentum in the past month, pushing the altcoin to a critical juncture in its price action. Currently trading at $0.72, IMX is attempting to break past a long-standing resistance level.
However, it faces challenges as a significant portion of the token’s supply, about 117 million IMX worth over $84 million, remains unprofitable and could potentially cause further price resistance.
Immutable Investors Await Profits
About 117 million IMX tokens, valued at over $84 million, are currently awaiting profitability, sitting between the price range of $0.81 and $0.84. This sizable supply zone has created a resistance level that Immutable X has struggled to breach for the past three months.
As a result, the chances of selling at this point are high, with many holders likely to liquidate their positions as the price approaches this zone.
This selling pressure could prevent IMX from sustaining upward movement unless stronger support from long-term holders and new buyers emerges. The resistance at this price range could also lead to the formation of price consolidation.
Looking at the broader market momentum, IMX is showing positive signs. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has recently breached above the zero line for the first time since the beginning of 2025.
This indicates that IMX is experiencing its strongest inflows of the year, which could help maintain the altcoin’s rally.
Meanwhile, the surge in inflows could help push IMX past its current resistance levels, especially if market sentiment remains favorable. The positive movement in the CMF suggests that the rally is backed by strong demand, which could fuel further price increases.
With sustained capital inflows, IMX may find the necessary support to break through the $0.81 barrier and continue its upward momentum.
IMX has gained 37% over the past week, trading at $0.72 at the time of writing. Holding above the $0.72 support level, the altcoin faces the critical resistance zone of $0.81, which it has been unable to breach since mid-February. If IMX can break this resistance, it could signal the start of a new upward movement.
However, the significant supply zone between $0.81 and $0.84 poses a risk of continued price consolidation under $0.81.
If the resistance proves too strong, IMX could fall through the $0.72 support level and drop to $0.60. This would invalidate the bullish thesis, suggesting a potential reversal in market sentiment.
On the other hand, if investor sentiment remains bullish and the broader market cues continue to support the rally, IMX could breach the $0.81 resistance.
A successful push past $0.88 would make the 117 million IMX tokens profitable, reinforcing the altcoin’s growth potential. This would invalidate the bearish outlook and likely spur further positive momentum.
A recent Cambridge report confirms that the United States now leads global Bitcoin mining, prompting questions about how China will respond. Though the country has long held an anti-crypto stance, Chinese mining pools have historically controlled a substantial portion of the global Bitcoin hashrate.
The US’s current competitive edge and renewed hostility over trade policy might motivate China to recapitulate. BeInCrypto spoke with representatives from The Coin Bureau and Wanchain to understand what might encourage China to change its stance toward digital assets.
US Overtakes China as Top Bitcoin Mining Hub
The US has firmly established itself as the world’s largest Bitcoin mining hub. A recent Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (CCAF) report revealed that the US accounts for 75.4% of the reported hashrate.
Global distribution of Bitcoin mining activity. Source: CCAF.
This newest development confirms a notable reversal of power over Bitcoin mining dominance. China emerged as the world’s leading Bitcoin mining nation as early as 2017, leveraging its extensive mining infrastructure and low electricity costs to contribute upwards of 75% of the global hash rate at one point.
Yet, the country would later crack down on the industry.
China’s Crypto Crackdown
In 2019, the National Development and Reform Commission of China (NDRC) signaled its intention to prohibit cryptocurrency mining by releasing a draft law categorizing it as an “undesirable industry.”
Two years later, at least four Chinese provinces began shutting down mining operations. These crackdowns intensified amid concerns over excessive energy consumption.
However, China possesses a proven capacity to adjust to geopolitical shifts that could jeopardize its economic dominance, and the current environment may present such a challenge.
Has Bitcoin Mining in China Truly Stopped?
Even with China’s official stance toward crypto, mining activity has not stopped within the region. In July 2024, Bitcoin environmental impact analyst Daniel Batten reported that the hashrate within China currently accounts for approximately 15% of the global total.
7/8
Bottom lines: 1. 15%+ hashrate still comes from China
2. If you have 200-500 miners and want to do renewable-energy mining, you’re welcome
3. This is particularly in Inner Mongolia, the Texas of China, which has a lot of wasted renewable power they want to monetize pic.twitter.com/r6QUgmLmjT
“Despite the official ban, the infrastructure is already in place: from offshore mining to cross-border trading hubs. With more global momentum behind crypto adoption and the US taking the lead, China may find itself incentivized to lean in more strategically, even if unofficially,” Nic Puckrin, Co-founder of the Coin Bureau, told BeInCrypto.
China also has a geographical advantage over the United States, especially regarding technological advancements.
Crypto mining, especially for proof-of-work cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, depends on Application-Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) equipment to handle the necessary complex calculations for validation and mining.
China’s position as a top exporter of crypto mining hardware, particularly to the US, gives it a potential advantage should it decide to revive its mining sector.
Puckrin believes that the combination of trade friction and the US’s invigorated push for crypto dominance might be sufficient to make China reconsider its position.
“It’s unlikely China will make a public U-turn on its crypto mining and trading ban anytime soon. However, with US-based miners accounting for higher and higher proportions of Bitcoin’s hashrate, China is bound to be paying attention and may well be quietly reassessing its stance,” Puckrin told BeInCrypto.
However, China has strategies beyond restarting its Bitcoin mining industry to undermine the United States’ dominance.
China’s Nuanced Approach Beyond US Influence
Even though China opposes the widespread use of cryptocurrencies domestically, it may still see value in digital assets to counterbalance the US dollar’s global currency dominance.
Several countries worldwide have either adopted or are considering central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) to strengthen their domestic currencies. China is at the forefront of these developments.
“Despite the ban on Bitcoin mining, China has actively participated in the digital asset space, through initiatives like CDBC research and the digital yuan, or e-CNY,” Wanchain CEO Temujin Louie told BeInCrypto.
In fact, China’s efforts to create a digital yuan are partly driven by its desire to de-dollarize its economy and lessen its dependence on the US dollar.
Louie also suggested that whatever move China makes, it won’t solely base its decision on what the US does or does not do.
That said, China’s decisions about digital currency will, in turn, affect how its position on crypto continues to develop.
“Weakening USD dominance, whether exacerbated or caused by President Trump’s approach to tariffs, may embolden China to be more aggressive in [its] efforts to internationalise the yuan, including the digital yuan, or e-CNY. Any change to China’s broader strategy will be reflected in [its] stance towards crypto,” he concluded.
China’s activity in other areas of international trade already proves how nuanced its policy changes tend to be.
Could China’s Conflicting Crypto Policies Signal a Change?
Aside from its appreciation of digital currencies like the e-CNY, China’s stance on crypto has already proven somewhat contradictory. These discrepancies may fuel the belief that the country might just be willing to revert—or at least soften—its total ban on mining.
A month ago, investment firm VanEck confirmed that China and Russia –two countries particularly burdened by US sanctions– are reportedly settling some of their energy trades using Bitcoin.
Russia and China are settling oil trades in BTC. I’ve heard first hand accounts of similar transactions with Venezuela. Full tankers are settled in BTC on the “grey” market. The U.S. Government crossed the Rubicon in 2022 by seizing Russian assets at the Federal Reserve and… pic.twitter.com/Y8OwJROw9W
“With the US dollar increasingly being used as a political lever –particularly in tariffed economies– other nations are actively exploring alternatives. Indeed, many countries around the world, including China and Russia, are already using Bitcoin as an alternative for trading in commodities and energy, for example. This trend is only going to accelerate as digital assets become a more prominent part of the global economy,” Puckrin told BeInCrypto.
According to Puckrin’s analysis of these indicators, China’s “shadow crypto economy” is projected to expand this year, which could result in a reassertion of its power. This resurgence would be primarily in response to de-dollarization efforts, rather than a reaction to US dominance in mining.
“We’ll likely see this activity ramping up in the near future, especially as more countries use crypto to bypass dollar-dominated systems,” he concluded.
It will remain crucial to interpret China’s intentions, especially regarding cryptocurrency, by observing its actions rather than relying solely on its official statements.
Cardano’s price has surged by almost 10% over the past week amid the current broader market recovery. This surge is fueled by Cardano’s increasing network activity and long-term holding trends, indicating growing investor confidence.
With the broader market in recovery mode and on-chain fundamentals strengthening, ADA’s current setup suggests the potential for a sustained upside.
ADA Accumulation Grows as Traders Show Strong Conviction
ADA’s demand has soared over the past week, as reflected by the steady surge in the daily count of active addresses on the Cardano network. According to IntoTheBlock, this has risen by 12% over the past seven days, indicating a gradual uptick in the demand for the Layer-1 coin.
This trend is a bullish signal, as it highlights growing investor interest in ADA and could drive its sustained price rally.
Moreover, new demand for the altcoin has also climbed. According to IntoTheBlock, the number of new addresses on the Cardano network has increased by 5% during the review period.
When ADA sees a gradual increase in new demand like this, it indicates the entry of new investors or traders into the market. This leads to higher trading volumes and liquidity, which in turn drives up the coin’s price.
Further, ADA investors have increased their holding time, signaling that the bullish momentum toward the altcoin is growing. According to IntoTheBlock, it has increased by 78% over the past week.
An asset’s holding time measures the average duration its coins/tokens are held before being sold or transferred. This bullish trend marks an ADA accumulation phase, with traders less inclined to sell.
It reflects strong investor conviction, as ADA investors choose to hold on to their coins rather than sell. Also, it could help reduce the selling pressure in the ADA market, driving up its value in the short term.
ADA Bulls Target Higher Gains
ADA trades at $0.76 as of this writing, extending its gains by 4% over the past day. On the daily chart, the coin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in an upward trend at 52.11, confirming the buying activity.
The RSI indicator measures an asset’s overbought and oversold market conditions. It ranges between 0 and 100, with values above 70 indicating that the asset is overbought and due for a decline. Conversely, values below 30 indicate that an asset is oversold and due for a rebound.
At 52.11 and climbing, ADA’s RSI readings suggest strengthening bullish momentum as buying pressure builds. If accumulation continues, the coin’s price could reach $0.97.
