Bitcoin price surged 3% on Thursday, climbing above $97,000 for the first time in two months. The rally was fueled by multiple bullish catalysts that reinforced investor confidence in BTC’s mid-term trajectory.
BTC price surges on ETF optimism and Saylor’s $21B push
Bitcoin (BTC) rose 3.4% this week, trading near $97,000 at press time. According to Coingecko data, Bitcoin price traded as high as $97,341, driving its market above $2 trillion for the first time since early March.
This came just days after the SEC postponed decisions on seven altcoin ETF applications.
The new SUI filing suggests the delays are procedural, not signs of rejection, which reassured markets.
Strategy Files Published Q1 Financial Report, May 1, 2025
Adding to the bullish momentum, Strategy, led by Michael Saylor unveiled Q1 results and a massive new investment plan.
Despite a $4.2 billion unrealized loss in Q1 2025 due to quarter-end BTC pricing, the company launched a $21 billion at-the-market (ATM) equity offering to buy more Bitcoin.
Strategy currently holds over 553,000 BTC at an average cost of $68,459. The firm also raised its 2025 BTC yield target from 15% to 25%, citing strong early-year performance.
Importantly, Strategy’s report highlighted a $12.7 billion accounting uplift from the switch to fair value accounting, boosting retained earnings. This marks a broader shift in corporate Bitcoin adoption, with over 70 public companies now holding BTC on their balance sheets.
Institutional momentum is now building on multiple fronts:
Renewed ETF activity, fair value accounting for corporate holders, and continued capital inflows. BTC’s sharp rebound above the $96,500-$97,000 zone confirms this bullish bias.
A weekly close above $97,000 could unlock the path to $105,000 in the near term, with some analysts projecting a move toward $145,000 by Q3 if macro tailwinds persist.
Bitcoin price is currently trading at $97,089, up 0.62% on the day, and poised to extend its rally toward $105,000. Price has broken decisively above the $90,000 resistance zone, with strong bullish continuation confirmed by the clean daily candle structure and rising volume.
Bitcoin price analysis | BTCUSDT
The 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), shown in green and red, have flattened out but remain below current price, signaling that BTC has reclaimed long-term trend support with conviction.
Other Bitcoin price forecast signals also support this bullish thesis. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 70.49 has entered overbought territory, typically a warning sign, but in trend-confirming rallies like this one, it often reflects strong institutional interest rather than exhaustion. RSI continues to diverge positively from its 14-day moving average, currently at 65.08, echoing bullish signals.
A move above $98,000 would open a clean path to $105,000, while support now lies at the $90,000 and $86,000 levels. A sudden break below these would invalidate the current bullish structure, although such a pullback appears unlikely given BTC price resilience above the 100-day SMA (blue) and low sell volume near resistance.
Circle’s USDC (USDC) has become the first and only stablecoin officially approved for use in Japan’s regulated financial market. This marks a significant step toward mainstream adoption of the stablecoin in one of Asia’s largest economies.
This move follows shortly after the Philippines’ leading digital wallet, GCash, added support for the dollar-backed coin.
SBI Holdings and Circle Bring USDC to Japan
In the latest press release, the company revealed a strategic joint venture with SBI Holdings, a major Japanese financial conglomerate. The partnership will see SBI VC Trade, a cryptocurrency exchange under SBI Holdings, launch USDC trading on March 26, 2025.
Other prominent exchanges, including Binance Japan, Bitbank, and BitFlyer, are set to follow suit, further expanding USDC’s reach in the region. The approval comes after SBI VC Trade secured regulatory clearance from the Japan Financial Services Agency (JFSA) on March 4, 2025.
Circle’s expansion into Japan through its local entity, Circle Japan KK, signals growing institutional confidence in USDC’s reliability and utility. By integrating USDC into Japan’s digital finance ecosystem, Circle aims to provide secure solutions for payments, settlements, and treasury operations, potentially setting a precedent for stablecoin adoption globally.
Jeremy Allaire, Co-founder and CEO of Circle, celebrated the achievement in a statement on X (formerly Twitter).
“We have spent 2+ years engaging with Japan’s regulators, major industry players, strategic partners, banking partners, and others to enable USDC for the Japanese market, which unlocks tremendous opportunities not just in trading digital assets but more broadly in payments, cross-border finance and commerce, FX and more,” Allaire stated.
Yoshitaka Kitao, President and CEO of SBI Holdings, stressed that Circle’s entry into Japan will enhance financial accessibility and drive innovation in the digital economy.
“We believe this initiative will enhance financial accessibility and drive digital asset innovation, aligning with our broader vision for the future of payments and blockchain-based finance in Japan,” Kitao said.
That’s not all. USDC’s circulation grew by 78% year-over-year. The report also shed lights on USDC’s expanded accessibility to more than 500 million user wallets worldwide. Circle expects this growth to continue in 2025.
“Beyond the US dollar’s preeminent role in trade, payments, and global finance, three factors are poised to accelerate the adoption and utility of USDC. First, legal and regulatory clarity; second, the scalability of new blockchain networks; and third, superior UX,” the report added.
Bitcoin (BTC) is now one year past its most recent halving, and this cycle is shaping up to be unlike any before it. Unlike previous cycles where explosive rallies followed the halving, BTC has seen a far more muted gain, up just 31%, compared to 436% over the same timeframe in the last cycle.
At the same time, long-term holder metrics like the MVRV ratio are signaling a sharp decline in unrealized profits, pointing to a maturing market with compressing upside. Together, these shifts suggest Bitcoin may be entering a new era, defined less by parabolic peaks and more by gradual, institution-driven growth.
A Year After the Bitcoin Halving: A Cycle Unlike Any Other
This Bitcoin cycle is unfolding noticeably differently than previous ones, signaling a potential shift in how the market responds to halving events.
In earlier cycles—most notably from 2012 to 2016 and again from 2016 to 2020—Bitcoin tended to rally aggressively around this stage. The post-halving period was often marked by strong upward momentum and parabolic price action, largely fueled by retail enthusiasm and speculative demand.
The current cycle, however, has taken a different route. Instead of accelerating after the halving, the price surge began earlier, in October and December 2024, followed by consolidation in January 2025 and a correction in late February.
This front-loaded behavior diverges sharply from historical patterns where halvings typically acted as the catalyst for major rallies.
Several factors are contributing to this shift. Bitcoin is no longer just a retail-driven speculative asset—it’s increasingly seen as a maturing financial instrument. The growing involvement of institutional investors, coupled with macroeconomic pressures and structural changes in the market, has led to a more measured and complex response.
Another clear sign of this evolution is the weakening strength of each successive cycle. The explosive gains of the early years have become harder to replicate as Bitcoin’s market cap has grown. For instance, in the 2020–2024 cycle, Bitcoin had climbed 436% one year after the halving.
In contrast, this cycle has seen a much more modest 31% increase over the same timeframe.
This shift could mean Bitcoin is entering a new chapter. One with less wild volatility and more steady, long-term growth. The halving may no longer be the main driver. Other forces are taking over—rates, liquidity, and institutional money.
The game is changing. And so is the way Bitcoin moves.
Nonetheless, it’s important to note that previous cycles also featured periods of consolidation and correction before resuming their uptrend. While this phase may feel slower or less exciting, it could still represent a healthy reset before the next move higher.
That said, the possibility remains that this cycle will continue to diverge from historical patterns. Instead of a dramatic blow-off top, the outcome may be a more prolonged and structurally supported uptrend—less driven by hype, more by fundamentals.
What Long-Term Holder MVRV Reveals About Bitcoin’s Maturing Market
The Long-Term Holder (LTH) MVRV ratio has always been a solid measure of unrealized profits. It shows how much long-term investors are sitting on before they start selling. But over time, this number is falling.
In the 2016–2020 cycle, LTH MVRV peaked at 35.8. That signaled massive paper profits and a clear top forming. By the 2020–2024 cycle, the peak dropped sharply to 12.2. This happened even as Bitcoin price hit fresh all-time highs.
In the current cycle, the highest LTH MVRV so far is just 4.35. That’s a massive drop. It shows long-term holders aren’t seeing the same kind of gains. The trend is clear: each cycle delivers smaller multiples.
Bitcoin’s explosive upside is compressing. The market is maturing.
Now, in the current cycle, the highest LTH MVRV reading so far has been 4.35. This stark drop suggests long-term holders are experiencing much lower multiples on their holdings compared to previous cycles, even with substantial price appreciation. The pattern points to one conclusion: Bitcoin’s upside is compressing.
This isn’t just a fluke. As the market matures, explosive gains are naturally harder to come by. The days of extreme, cycle-driven profit multiples may be fading, replaced by more moderate—but potentially more stable—growth.
A growing market cap means it takes exponentially more capital to move the price significantly.
Still, it’s not definitive proof that this cycle has already topped out. Previous cycles often included extended periods of sideways movement or modest pullbacks before new highs were reached.
With institutions playing a larger role, accumulation phases could stretch longer. Therefore, peak profit-taking may be less abrupt than in earlier cycles.
However, if the trend of declining MVRV peaks continues, it could reinforce the idea that Bitcoin is transitioning away from wild, cyclical surges and toward a more subdued but structured growth pattern.
The sharpest gains may already be behind, especially for those entering late in the cycle.
Dogecoin price remains in a technical bear market today. It trades at $0.1617, down by 65% from its highest level in December. While concerns about DOGE being dead persist, chart patterns suggest an eventual rebound. However, technicals also warn that the token may struggle to hit $1 in 2025.
Dogecoin Price Analysis
DOGE price has retreated this year. This decline was triggered by profit-taking among holders and the falling Fear and Greed Index, which has moved into the fear zone of 25.
Fortunately, the Dogecoin price has bottomed at a key support level. It settled above the 200-week EMA.
DOGE has also fallen to the rising trendline. It is located along the lower side of the rising broadening wedge pattern, commonly known as a megaphone. The pattern often leads to a breakout.
If this happens, the most likely situation is that the Dogecoin price jumps and retests last year’s high of $0.4782. This target is approximately 195% above the current level.
This bullish DOGE price forecast assumes the best-case scenario for the coin. For that to happen, the crypto market needs to be soaring, and the fear gauge should be in the green. Additionally, Bitcoin needs to break out and surge to a new all-time high.
On the flip side, a drop below the lower side of the rising wedge point at $0.1210 will invalidate the bullish outlook.
Dogecoin Price Chart
Is DOGE Dead and Can it Hit $1 This Year?
Dogecoin needs to rise by 525% from the current level to hit the psychological point at $1. This is possible since it has jumped by a higher magnitude in the past. However, it is unlikely that it will hit that level this year.
Some potential catalysts for the DOGE surge are the potential approval of a spot DOGE ETF, the cryptocurrency surge, and incorporation in X Payments by Elon Musk.
So, is DOGE dead? History shows that the coin is not dead. Additionally, it remains the largest meme coin in the cryptocurrency industry, boasting a market capitalization of over $24 billion. This makes it bigger than many popular companies like Capgemini, Trade Desk, Iron Mountain, and Carnival.
What Dogecoin is going through is a normal pullback as it has done in the past few years. For example, it dropped by over 65% from its highest level in April to the lowest level in August last year and then bounced back.