A weakening U.S. dollar amid rising crypto optimism has favored bullish sentiments for Bitcoin in the short term.
The ongoing cooling down of the leveraged crypto trading has set a precedent for a fresh rally beyond $111.9k.
The rising conflict between the United States and the European Union has weighed down on a weakening greenback against major global currencies. The cryptocurrency market, led by Bitcoin (BTC), has emerged as a better alternative for investors seeking to hedge against macroeconomic uncertainties.
Since the Doland Trump administration took office earlier in 2025, three states – including New Hampshire, Arizona, and Texas – have approved the strategic Bitcoin reserve bills in both the senate and House. In the past six days, Bitcoin’s investment products recorded a net cash inflow of about $2.3 billion, according to market data from CoinShares.
With the CME futures and options markets leaning towards bullish sentiment, BTC price will soon enter the euphoric phase of the 2025 crypto bull run.
Bitcoin Price Expectations in the Midterm
In the 1-hour timeframe, BTC price has been rising in a parallel channel since a local low of about $74.8k earlier in April. Earlier this week, BTC price was rejected at the upper border of the rising channel and is now signaling a drop towards the lower border.
Moreover, the 1-Hour MACD line has already dropped below the zero line and the histograms have been growing in a bearish fashion in the past two days.
In the daily timeframe, BTC price has been following an almost similar fractal pattern to the Q4 2024 bullish breakout. If BTC price consistently closes above the upper border of the established rising channel in the coming days, a potential rally towards $140k will be inevitable. However, a consistent close below the lower border of the rising channel will trigger a rejuvenated bearish pressure potentially towards $74k again.
Solana (SOL) continues to show strength across multiple fronts, maintaining a bullish structure on its Ichimoku Cloud chart while gaining momentum in key market metrics. The BBTrend indicator has turned higher again, signaling renewed buying pressure after a brief cooldown.
On-chain activity remains strong, with Solana leading all blockchains in DEX volume and dominating fee generation thanks to the explosive growth of meme coins and launchpad activity. With SOL now trading above a key resistance level, the path is open for further upside—though a loss of momentum could still trigger a retest of lower supports.
Solana Maintains Bullish Structure, but Momentum Faces Key Test
On Solana’s Ichimoku Cloud chart, the price is currently above the Kijun-sen (red base line) but has dipped below the Tenkan-sen (blue conversion line), signaling weakening short-term momentum.
The flattening Tenkan-sen and price behavior suggest possible consolidation or the early stages of a pullback. Still, with the price holding above the Kijun-sen, medium-term support remains intact.
The overall Ichimoku structure remains bullish, with a thick, rising cloud and leading span A well above span B—indicating strong underlying support.
If Solana finds support at the Kijun-sen and climbs back above the Tenkan-sen, the uptrend could regain strength; otherwise, a test of the cloud’s upper boundary may follow.
Meanwhile, Solana’s BBTrend is currently at 6, extending nearly ten days in positive territory after peaking at 17.5 on April 14. The recent increase from 4.26 to 6 suggests renewed bullish momentum following a brief cooldown.
BBTrend, or Bollinger Band Trend, tracks the strength of price movement based on Bollinger Band expansion.
Positive values like the current one point to an active uptrend, and if the BBTrend continues to rise, it could signal stronger momentum and potential for another upward move.
Solana Dominates DEX Volume and Fee Generation as Meme Coins Drive Ecosystem Growth
Solana has once again claimed the top spot among all chains in DEX volume, recording $15.15 billion over the past seven days. The combined total of Ethereum, BNB, Base, and Arbitrum reached $22.7 billion.
When it comes to application fees, Solana’s momentum is just as clear. Four of the top ten fee-generating apps over the past week—PumpFun, Jupiter, Jito, and Meteora—are Solana-focused.
Pump leads the pack with nearly $18 million in fees alone.
Solana Breaks Key Resistance as Uptrend Targets Higher Levels, but Risks Remain
Solana has finally broken above its key resistance at $136, flipping it into a new support level that was successfully tested just yesterday.
Its EMA lines remain aligned in a bullish setup, suggesting the uptrend is still intact.
If this momentum continues, SOL price could aim for the next resistance zones at $147 and $152—levels that, if breached, open the door to a potential move toward $179.
Recent analyses by crypto experts acknowledge that Bitcoin (BTC) price movements closely correlate with the global M2 money supply. Based on this, they predict potential bullish momentum for the crypto market in late March.
With global liquidity expanding, analysts predict that Bitcoin and other digital assets could experience a significant rally, starting around March 25, 2025, and potentially lasting until mid-May.
Global M2 and Its Influence on Bitcoin
The M2 money supply represents a broad measure of liquidity, including cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near-money assets. Historically, Bitcoin has demonstrated a strong correlation with M2 fluctuations, as increased liquidity in financial markets often drives demand for alternative assets like cryptocurrencies.
Colin Talks Crypto, an analyst on X (Twitter), highlighted this correlation, pointing to a sharp increase in global M2. He described it as a “vertical line” on the chart, signaling an imminent surge in asset prices.
According to his prediction, the rally for stocks, Bitcoin, and the broader crypto market is expected to commence on March 25, 2025, and extend until May 14, 2025.
“The Global M2 Money Supply chart just printed another vertical line. The rally for stocks, Bitcoin, and crypto is going to be epic,” he suggested.
Vandell, co-founder of Black Swan Capitalist, supports that global M2 movements directly influence Bitcoin’s price. He notes that declines in global M2 are typically followed by Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market downturns about ten weeks later.
Despite the potential for short-term dips, Vandell believes this cycle sets the stage for a long-term uptrend.
“As seen recently, when global M2 declined, Bitcoin & crypto followed roughly 10 weeks later. While further downside is possible, this drawdown is a natural part of the cycle. This liquidity shift will likely continue throughout the year, setting the stage for the next leg up,” Vandell explained.
“Bottom line is: Inflation isn’t the prime topic, likely to go down. FED rate cuts. The dollar to weaken massively. Yields to fall. M2 Supply to significantly expand. And as this process started, it’s just a matter of time until altcoins and crypto pick up. Bull,” he stated.
Historical Context and Projections
The correlation between Bitcoin’s price and global M2 growth is not new. Tomas, a macroeconomist, recently compared previous market cycles, particularly in 2017 and 2020. At the time, significant increases in global M2 coincided with Bitcoin’s strongest annual performances.
“Money supply is expanding globally. The last two major global M2 surges occurred in 2017 and 2020—both coincided with mini ‘everything bubbles’ and Bitcoin’s strongest years. Could we see a repeat in 2025? It depends on whether the U.S. dollar weakens significantly,” Tomas observed.
Tomas also highlighted the impact of central bank policies, pointing out that while major banks are cutting rates, the strength of the US dollar could be a limiting factor. If the dollar index (DXY) drops to around 100 or lower, it could create conditions similar to previous Bitcoin bull runs.
Macro researcher Yimin Xu believes that the Federal Reserve might halt its Quantitative Tightening (QT) policies in the latter half of the year. Such a move, Yimin says, could potentially shift toward Quantitative Easing (QE) if economic conditions demand it. This shift could inject additional liquidity into the markets, fueling Bitcoin’s upward trajectory.
“I think reserves could get too thin for the Fed’s liking in the second half of the year. I predict they will terminate QT in late Q3 or Q4, with possible QE to come after,” Xu commented.
Tomas agreed, stating that the Federal Reserve’s current plan is to increase its balance sheet slowly, which is in line with GDP growth. He also articulates that a major financial event could trigger a full-scale return to QE.
These perspectives suggest that uncertainties remain, including the strength of the US dollar and potential economic shocks. Nevertheless, the broader consensus among analysts points toward an impending bullish phase for Bitcoin.
Investors must conduct their own research as they continue to watch macroeconomic indicators in the coming months, anticipating whether the predicted rally will materialize.
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