Yesterday, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw significant inflows, marking the third consecutive day of net positive flows.
With BTC now trading back above the $90,000 mark, signs point to renewed institutional interest, as major players appear to be piling back into the market after weeks of caution.
BTC ETF Inflows Jump 146% in a Day
On Wednesday, net inflows into US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs surged to $936.43 million, a 146% jump from the $381.40 million recorded the previous day.
Total Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflow. Source: SosoValue
This also represented the largest single-day inflow since January 17, signaling a notable resurgence in institutional demand for BTC exposure.
Ark Invest and 21Shares’ ETF ARKB led the inflow charge, recording the highest daily net inflow of $267.10 million, bringing its total cumulative net inflows to $2.87 billion.
Fidelity’s ETF FBTC followed with a net inflow of $253.82 million. The ETF’s total historical net inflows now stand at $11.62 billion.
BTC’s Price Pumps, But Derivatives Traders Bet on a Fall
On the derivatives side, open interest in BTC futures has also climbed, reflecting the increased trading activity and speculative positioning as the coin attempts to stabilize above $90,000.
BTC trades at $93,548 at press time, noting a 6% price surge over the past day. During the same period, its futures open interest has also risen by 16%. As of this writing, it stands at $67.19 billion, its highest level since January 24.
When an asset’s price and open interest rise simultaneously, it signals strong conviction behind the move. It means more capital is entering the market to support the uptrend.
However, not all indicators point to bullish sentiment.
Despite BTC’s price surge over the past day, the funding rate remains negative, suggesting that traders are paying a premium to short the coin in the futures markets. The coin’s funding rate is currently at -0.01%.
BTC’s negative funding rate means that shorts are paying longs to keep their positions open. This indicates that more traders are betting against BTC’s current rally and are anticipating a bearish reversal.
Additionally, the put-to-call ratio leans bearish. This confirms waning investor confidence and expectations of downward price movement among BTC options traders.
Solana has emerged as a powerful presence in the crypto industry. Since its inception in 2020, the network has dominated the market, demonstrating remarkable levels of user engagement and practical utility, particularly in decentralized finance (DeFi). Many in the industry view it as the next natural contender to receive an ETF approval in the United States.
However, others are more cautious in their evaluations. BeInCrypto spoke with representatives from Gravity, Variant, and OKX to understand the areas where Solana is still lacking. Industry leaders referred to centralization, network reliability, and excessive regulation as points of contention for Solana’s ETF approval.
Bitcoin and Ethereum’s Precedent
The availability of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for prominent cryptocurrencies has grown over the past year. These funds offer investors diversified investment opportunities and act as a bridge between traditional finance and the increasingly mainstream cryptocurrency market.
Meanwhile, the deadline for some filings, including Grayscale’s, was extended until October. Nonetheless, posts on X and some analytical reports suggest yesterday’s deadline as a date of interest for an initial or consolidated SEC response to several applications.
2025 Predictions and Market Expectations
The tentative approval of a Solana ETF has generated much debate across social media platforms. ETF President Nate Geraci formally predicted that 2025 would be the year of crypto ETFs and that Solana would receive its approval this year.
Per previous reports, former Trump White House Secretary Anthony Scaramucci expressed that, with a Trump reelection, Solana ETFs could gain approval during Q1 of 2025. According to his predictions, Solana would receive the SEC’s green light during the next two weeks.
Meanwhile, the prediction market Polymarket estimates an 82% chance that a Solana ETF will get approved in 2025.
According to a Polymarket poll, Solana has an 82% chance of getting an ETF approval in 2025. Source: Polymarket
Several factors make an imminent Solana ETF approval seem plausible. Less than five years after the network launched, Solana quickly became a major player in the crypto industry, attracting users for its high transaction speeds and low gas fees.
“From a network perspective, Solana’s performance has been remarkable, now driving nearly 50% of all global DEX volume– a dominance that fundamentally reshapes the DeFi landscape. The blockchain is not just handling unprecedented transaction volumes… it’s transforming our understanding of blockchain scalability at scale,” Lennix Lai, Global Chief Commercial Officer at OKX told BeInCrypto.
Solana has established itself as a dynamic force in the crypto industry following a successful 2024.
A Messari report detailed particular growth in Solana’s final quarter across DeFi, liquid staking, NFTs, and institutional involvement. The total value locked (TVL) in Solana’s DeFi sector increased substantially, growing by 64% to $8.6 billion, which placed it behind Ethereum as the second-largest network based on TVL.
Solana’s positive performance, coupled with Donald Trump’s reelection to the US presidency, further amplified the crypto industry’s optimism over an ETF approval.
However, some industry experts have expressed more tempered expectations.
Experts Offer Tempered Expectations
A few days before Trump assumed the presidency, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart said Solana ETFs may not be launched in the US until 2026. He cited the SEC’s precedent of taking a lot of time to review filings as the cause for delay.
In another post, Bloomberg Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said that ETF approvals for other cryptocurrencies were more likely to occur before Solana.
“We expect a wave of cryptocurrency ETFs next year, albeit not all at once. First out is likely the BTC + ETH combo ETFs, then prob Litecoin (bc its fork of btc = commodity), then HBAR (bc not labeled security) and then XRP/Solana (which have been labeled securities in pending lawsuits),” Balchunas said.
Balchunas further explained that complex legal issues around Solana, relating to its status as a security, need to be resolved before it can gain ETF approval. Consequently, he deemed the approval of Litecoin or Hedera ETFs more likely.
Uncertainty over whether Solana classifies as a security is a major driver fueling doubts over its ETF approval.
Security Classification Concerns
Martins Benkitis, co-founder and CEO of Gravity, explained that Solana’s regulatory classification complicates its path to approval.
“It’s no secret there’s currently a lack of precedent for Layer-1 blockchains beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum in the ETF space, this suggests cautious optimism but with higher regulatory hurdles. Bitcoin, being a commodity in the SEC’s eyes, and Ethereum’s gradual transition to PoS had different legal considerations. Solana, on the other hand, faces concerns over potential classification as a security due to its token distribution and foundation’s involvement,” Benkitis told BeInCrypto.
The SEC identified Solana as a security in lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase over the past two years, although these lawsuits have since been dropped. The SEC argued that these tokens could be considered investment contracts under the Howey Test.
While some interpreted the SEC’s lawsuit withdrawal as a softening stance on Solana’s security classification, others quickly challenged this assumption.
“There is no reason to think [the] SEC has decided SOL is a non-security. That they don’t want to do discovery on a dozen tokens in the Binance case appears to be a litigation tactic, not a change in policy,” said Jake Chervinsky, Chief Legal Officer at Variant, following the Binance lawsuit withdrawal in July 2024.
Others believe that a pro-crypto administration should be enough to influence the SEC to consider Solana as a non-security. Lai disagrees.
“The changing political landscape, particularly with Trump’s victory and pro-crypto stance, could create a more constructive environment for innovative blockchain platforms like Solana. However, the technical and market structure considerations will remain crucial regardless of administration changes,” he said.
In the meantime, there are several other requirements Solana must meet.
On his part, Lai added other aspects to the list of considerations.
“While Polymarket shows high odds for 2025 approval, several critical factors suggest a more complex pathway: Solana’s technological architecture presents unique challenges with its PoS mechanism; The absence of CME futures raises liquidity and risk management concerns; Historical network downtime incidents need addressing; Centralization questions relative to BTC and ETH remain unresolved; Institutional interest hasn’t matched BTC and ETH levels despite the network driving 48% of global DEX volume; [and] the temporary nature of trending themes suggests caution in using current volumes as primary indicators,” Lai told BeInCrypto.
Concerns about centralization and scalability have long been discussed regarding Solana, even outside of discussions over an ETF approval.
Since 2021, Solana has suffered over a dozen network outages varying in severity. These outages have jeopardized the network’s reputation as stable and reliable– two strongly considered characteristics during the ETF approval process.
“From a market making standpoint, network reliability is crucial as any downtime or congestion can significantly impact trading operations and order execution,” Benkitis affirmed.
However, Solana has successfully curbed the number of outages it has experienced. Once notorious for the frequency of its shutdowns, the last time Solana experienced one was in February 2024.
Meanwhile, developers designed Solana’s upcoming Firedancer validator client to improve network stability and transaction processing. Its distinct codebase offers greater resilience against widespread outages and will enhance Solana’s performance.
Yet, Solana must also mitigate centralization concerns to improve its chances of obtaining ETF approval.
Centralization Concerns
Solana’s validator node requirements, which demand significant hardware investments, can create barriers to entry. These obstacles can potentially concentrate power within the network among those capable of affording the necessary infrastructure.
In turn, the protocol’s limited number of validators compared to other networks raises concerns over centralization. For context, while Solana currently has around 2,000 active validators, Ethereum passed the one million benchmark last year—the largest number recorded by any blockchain network.
Though Solana’s hardware reliance speeds up the network, it also raises decentralization concerns. Benkitis factored this aspect into his evaluation of an ETF approval.
Its currently underdeveloped futures market infrastructure further complicates Solana’s viability as an ETF candidate.
Its filings were unprecedented because the network did not have a previously established futures market. This factor was crucial in determining an ETF approval for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
“The lack of CME futures and institutional frameworks comparable to BTC/ETH could influence [the SEC’s] evaluation,” Lai said.
He added that the proliferation of meme tokens minted on Solana could present themselves as a potential roadblock.
“Market reactions reflect Solana’s emergence as the primary driver of this cycle, with DEX volumes exceeding $100 billion and dominating major aggregators. However, I believe the temporary nature of trending themes suggests continued volatility. While technological advancement and growing institutional adoption may provide stronger foundations, we need to maintain perspective on the cyclical nature of crypto trends,” Lai said.
This more recent development in Solana’s attraction also brings its set of downsides.
Meme Coin Influence and Regulatory Concerns
The expanding meme coin market on Solana partially explains its popularity. Platforms like Pump.fun allow anyone to launch their tokens, and this design has even led to celebrities launching their tokens on the platform.
More recently, political figures like Donald Trump and Argentine president Javier Milei have also launched meme tokens on Solana platforms. Yet, these activities have proven to be high-risk. In many cases, meme coin investments have caused smaller retailers millions of dollars in losses.
Benkitis said that the SEC might frown upon the speculative nature of these trading activities.
“While an ETF approval could unlock liquidity opportunities, the market’s heavy dependence on speculative sentiment calls for a measured and cautious approach,” he said.
With so many considerations, approving a Solana ETF in 2025 is far from guaranteed. The SEC’s eventual decision will be a defining moment for the network and the broader crypto industry.
HBAR has recently made an attempt to recover from previous losses, aiming to reach the next major resistance level.
As the altcoin gains momentum, traders are finding relief, especially with the support of favorable market conditions. This could allow HBAR to continue its upward trajectory and avoid liquidation risks.
HBAR Traders Saved From Losses
Currently, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator is signaling a bullish crossover. This shift marks the end of a bearish crossover that had been active for more than three weeks. The MACD line crossing above the signal line suggests a potential reversal in momentum, which could help HBAR recover its recent losses. This shift is particularly significant for traders looking to regain confidence in the token’s price movement.
As the MACD crossover takes place, the market sentiment around HBAR is turning more positive. The shift to bullish momentum provides traders with optimism, supporting the potential for a quicker recovery. With this technical indicator signaling a trend reversal, HBAR could see increased buying pressure, which may help it surpass its resistance levels in the near future.
The liquidation map further emphasizes how crucial the recent price action has been for HBAR traders. Had HBAR’s price dropped to the next support level at $0.163, it could have triggered $37.2 million worth of long liquidations. This would have caused significant losses for traders holding long positions. However, with the bullish crossover, HBAR’s price action has provided a much-needed relief, preventing a drop to the critical support level.
For many traders, this shift in momentum has been a welcome development. With the liquidation risk mitigated, long traders are more likely to remain active in the market. This continued optimism from bullish traders is key to maintaining upward pressure on the price, supporting the potential for HBAR to break through resistance levels and recover its previous losses.
At the time of writing, HBAR is trading at $0.176, just under the resistance level of $0.182. The bullish crossover, along with the support from the technical indicators, could help HBAR breach this barrier. If successful, the altcoin will likely continue to rise, targeting higher resistance levels.
Flipping $0.182 into support would signal the start of an uptrend and solidify the recent gains. This shift would confirm the continuation of the bullish momentum, enabling HBAR to push past $0.189. The strong support from traders and market indicators suggests that HBAR could see further price growth if it maintains this upward momentum.
However, if HBAR fails to breach the $0.182 resistance and faces selling pressure, the price could decline back to the local support of $0.172. A drop below this support could lead to a further slide to $0.163, invalidating the bullish outlook. Such a decline would trigger $37.2 million in long liquidations, dampening the market sentiment and potentially reversing the upward trend.
Pi Network’s native token, PI, has witnessed a 22% price plunge over the past week, extending its downtrend to trade at a seven-day low of $ 0.61 at press time.
The double-digit decline reflects growing bearish sentiment around the token and coincides with a broader contraction in the crypto market.
PI’s Outlook Worsens as Bearish Trend Deepens
The global cryptocurrency market capitalization has dropped by over 5% in the past seven days, shedding over $170 billion. The widespread pullback has shaken investor confidence, triggering fresh PI selloffs over the past few days.
The strengthening sell-side pressure is evident in PI’s BBTrend indicator, which has continued to print red histogram bars, a clear signal of mounting bearish momentum. As of this writing, the indicator sits at -4.52.
The BBTrend measures the strength and direction of a trend based on the expansion and contraction of Bollinger Bands. When BBTrend values are positive, it typically signals a strong uptrend, while negative values indicate increasing bearish momentum.
PI’s persistent negative BBTrend suggests that its price consistently closes near the lower Bollinger Band. This trend indicates sustained selling activity and hints at the potential for a sustained price decline.
Further, PI’s Smart Money Index (SMI) has fallen over the past few days, signaling an exit of “smart money” or institutional-grade investors. This is often considered a leading indicator of deeper price declines, as it suggests reduced confidence from these key investors.
An asset’s SMI tracks the activity of institutional investors by analyzing market behavior during the first and last hours of trading. When it rises, these investors are increasing their buying activity, indicating the likelihood of an extended rally.
Conversely, as with PI, when it falls, it indicates that institutional demand for the asset is weakening, signalling potential for further downside.
PI Teeters Near Key Support—Will Bulls Hold the Line at $0.55?
PI’s climbing selling activity suggests that the token could be vulnerable to further losses in the short term. If selloffs continue, the altcoin risks breaking below the critical support formed at $0.55.
If the bulls fail to defend this support floor, PI could revisit its all-time low of $0.40.
However, a spike in new demand for the token could prevent this from happening. If the PI Network token buying pressure spikes, it could push its price to $0.86.
