Ethereum (ETH) has declined for five consecutive months. However, it enters May with rising optimism. Historical trends, on-chain data, whale accumulation behavior, and upcoming technological upgrades form a strong foundation for a potential price rebound.
Here are four key reasons why analysts believe ETH could recover strongly in May.
Why Ethereum Might Recover in May 2025
The first reason stems from ETH’s historical price performance. Data from CoinGlass shows that May is typically the best-performing month for ETH.
Over the years, ETH has posted an average return of 27.36% in May, the highest among all months.
While not every May ends with gains, historical trends suggest this month usually brings positive sentiment and upward momentum for ETH. Given the current conditions, Cyclop expects ETH to maintain its growth this month and reach the $2,500 target.
“May is historically the best month for ETH. $2,500 by the month’s end,” analyst Cyclop predicted.
Another critical factor supporting a bullish outlook is on-chain data, particularly the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio. According to analyst Michaël van de Poppe, ETH’s MVRV ratio is currently at its lowest since March 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic heavily impacted the crypto market.
A low MVRV ratio suggests ETH is undervalued compared to its on-chain value. This signal has only appeared six times in the past ten years, often preceding major recoveries. The chart also indicates that ETH could experience significant growth within the next 3 to 12 months.
The third bullish sign is recent whale accumulation behavior. According to CryptoQuant, these investors didn’t abandon their strategy even though ETH’s price dropped, and many accumulation addresses remain at unrealized losses.
Instead, they increased their ETH holdings.
On March 10, accumulation addresses held 15.5356 million ETH. By May 3, this number had climbed to 19.0378 million ETH — a 22.54% increase.
ETH: Balance on Accumulation Address. Source: CryptoQuant.
“ETH investors demonstrate strong belief in the asset, project, and ecosystem. Their on-chain behavior reflects structural conviction and clear expectations of short-term appreciation — aligned with Ethereum’s broader evolution,” analyst Carmelo_Alemán said.
Finally, Ethereum’s upcoming Pectra upgrade, scheduled for May 7, 2025, contributes to market optimism. The upgrade aims to improve wallet usability and user experience. It could boost dApp adoption and long-term ETH demand.
Meanwhile, May 7 is also the date of the FOMC meeting, where the Fed will announce its interest rate decision. If macroeconomic news is favorable, it could amplify ETH’s short-term gains alongside the other factors.
However, if the news is negative, it could complicate ETH’s price action in May.
Mantra (OM) is down 20% over the last 30 days and 5% today. Despite this recent correction, it remains the second-largest RWA (real-world asset) token in the market.
The technical outlook shows growing signs of weakness, with indicators suggesting the current consolidation could shift into a downtrend. At the same time, key support levels are being tested, and a potential death cross is forming on the EMA chart.
Mantra ADX Shows The Current Consolidation Could Change
Mantra’s ADX is currently at 22.96, a drop from 26.5 just a day ago, signaling a weakening trend. The ADX, or Average Directional Index, measures the strength of a trend without indicating its direction.
Readings below 20 generally suggest a weak or non-trending market, while values above 25 indicate a strong trend is forming or in progress.
Ichimoku Cloud Shows A Bearish Trend Could Intensify
Mantra’s Ichimoku Cloud chart currently shows a market in hesitation, with the price moving along the edge of the cloud. This positioning reflects a state of consolidation, where neither buyers nor sellers have full control, as Mantra keeps its position as the second biggest RWA coin in the market.
The Tenkan-sen (blue) and Kijun-sen (red) lines are flat and close together, a typical sign of weak momentum and sideways movement in the short term. This setup often precedes a breakout, but the direction remains uncertain until a clear move occurs.
The future cloud is thin and has turned slightly bearish (red). It indicates that support ahead is weak and could be easily broken if selling pressure increases.
While the price hasn’t decisively broken below the cloud yet, any further downside could shift the bias toward a confirmed downtrend. For now, OM remains in a vulnerable position. Traders will be watching closely to see if the cloud acts as support—or gives way.
Can Mantra Fall Below $6 Soon?
MANTRA’s EMA lines are signaling potential weakness, with a possible death cross forming soon—a bearish pattern in which short-term moving averages cross below long-term ones.
If this pattern is confirmed and downward pressure increases, OM could fall to test the support at $6.15. A break below that level may lead to a further drop toward $5.85, signaling a deeper correction phase in the absence of renewed bullish momentum.
Real-World Assets (RWA) are becoming one of the most closely watched narratives in crypto as the sector evolves under increased institutional and regulatory scrutiny. The collapse of MANTRA served as a wake-up call, exposing operational vulnerabilities and sparking demands for higher standards across tokenization platforms.
While skepticism grows around decentralized RWA projects, the broader investment case for asset-backed tokens remains intact—especially as stablecoins and tokenized treasuries lead adoption efforts. Against this backdrop, several RWA altcoins are standing out in May 2025, showing both technical momentum and renewed investor interest.
Stablecoins and Treasuries Lead RWA Adoption Wave
The collapse of Mantra has triggered a wave of reflection and caution across the Real World Asset (RWA) sector. As Andrei Grachev, Managing Partner of DWF Labs, puts it:
“The Mantra collapse is really a pivotal moment for the RWA sector. It has exposed some serious vulnerabilities in how these permissionless tokenisation platforms operate. I think we’re going to see investors getting much more cautious and selective about where they put their money now. Institutional players will probably start demanding much higher standards of due diligence, and regulators might step in with more scrutiny too.”
This event has clearly shaken confidence in the structure of some decentralized RWA models, pushing institutional and retail participants toward more regulated, vetted alternatives.
At the same time, the debate around RWA tokens’ potential to decouple from broader crypto market volatility is gaining momentum.
In response to Binance Research’s observation that RWA tokens have shown more stability than Bitcoin during tariff events, Edwin Mata, Co-founder & CEO of Brickken, said:
“True RWA tokens are backed by real-world value and governed by legal frameworks that enforce rights, obligations, and cash flows. In that sense, they behave more like traditional securities and can, over time, become more resilient to macro-level crypto volatility, especially during periods of market stress, regulatory shifts, or geopolitical shocks like tariffs.”
Shahaf bar Geffen, CEO and Founder of COTI, reinforced this emerging divergence by stating:
“We‘re already witnessing the early stages of that decoupling. RWA tokens are anchored to tangible assets—real estate, commodities, invoices—which inherently provide a stability layer absent in purely speculative cryptocurrencies. The potential for RWAs to hedge against macroeconomic volatility, such as tariffs or inflationary pressures, is significant.”
The macroeconomic case is strengthening, but the technological and institutional backing behind RWAs is also evolving quickly. Kadan Stadelmann, Chief Technology Officer at Komodo Platform, believes institutional adoption will be a decisive factor:
“The adoption by mainstream financial institutions will separate RWAs from the rest of the crypto index. No other crypto product will be as extensively adopted by mainstream finance as RWAs other than stablecoins, which I would argue are a type of RWA.”
Here are the top 3 RWA coins to watch in May.
Ondo (ONDO)
ONDO has climbed nearly 14% over the past 30 days, recently breaking above the $1 mark for the first time since March 6. This move has brought renewed attention to the token, as its market cap approaches the $3 billion threshold again.
However, this upward price action comes amid a broader contraction in the space. According to data from rwa.xyz, total RWA on-chain value currently sits at $16.6 billion, representing a 16.92% decline over the past 30 days.
Despite ONDO’s short-term strength, its technical indicators are flashing caution. A death cross has recently formed on its EMA lines—a pattern often associated with bearish momentum.
The first key support is $0.866. If that level breaks, ONDO could decline to $0.819, with deeper support at $0.73 and $0.663 if the downtrend accelerates.
On the upside, if sentiment reverses and ONDO manages to break above the $1.04 resistance, a push toward $1.20 could follow, opening the door for a stronger recovery.
Reserve Rights (RSR)
Reserve Rights is up nearly 41% over the past 30 days, riding a wave of renewed interest following its Coinbase listing and lingering associations with incoming SEC Chair Paul Atkins.
Despite Atkins having no active ties to the project today, his early advisory role has fueled trader speculation about potential regulatory tailwinds.
This narrative, combined with Binance’s top traders heavily going long, has positioned RSR as one of the more politically charged tokens in the current market.
The listing alone sparked a 9% intraday jump, helping bring RSR back into the spotlight after a long quiet phase post-2021 peak.
Technically, RSR is approaching a critical decision point. The token recently attempted to break the $0.0096 resistance level twice and failed, signaling the importance of that threshold.
A successful breakout could open the door to $0.011, and potentially $0.0137 if momentum builds. However, failure to hold current levels could trigger a correction toward $0.0084, with deeper support at $0.0071 and $0.0057.
TokenFi (TOKEN)
Real-world asset (RWA) platform TokenFi (TOKEN) has surged nearly 40% over the past seven days, pushing its market cap back to the $20 million mark.
The sharp rise comes despite a notable drop in trading activity, with 24-hour volume falling over 59% to $8.13 million.
The divergence between price appreciation and declining volume raises questions about the rally’s sustainability, but for now, TOKEN is regaining attention as a small-cap RWA narrative play in the altcoin market.
From a technical standpoint, TOKEN is approaching key resistance levels. If the bullish momentum continues, the token could test $0.024 and $0.0275, with a potential breakout target of $0.041.
However, any reversal could see TOKEN retrace toward the $0.0194 support level. If that fails, deeper downside levels lie at $0.0137 and $0.0112.
