Coinbase serves US institutional and retail investors. A rising premium often reflects aggressive accumulation by American whales, ETF providers, or corporations.
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Over the Past Month. Source: CryptoQuant
These movements confirm that US institutions are leading the current cycle, supported by favorable regulation and capital access.
Korean Bitcoin Market Tells a Different Story
In sharp contrast, the Korea Premium Index — often called the “Kimchi Premium” — has dropped below zero.
This index tracks the price difference between Bitcoin on Korean exchanges (e.g., Upbit, Bithumb) and global platforms.
As of mid-July, the premium remains around -1.7%, showing Bitcoin trades cheaper in South Korea. A negative Korea Premium suggests Korean retail demand is weak, with few new investors entering the market.
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Over the Past Month. Source: CryptoQuant
In previous bull runs (2017, 2021), Korea often saw premiums of +10% or more, driven by speculative retail frenzy. That dynamic is absent today.
Why This Divergence Matters
The split in premium indices reveals Bitcoin’s current bull run is not globally balanced. It is centered in the US, with limited retail enthusiasm from one of Asia’s most active markets.
Historically, broad-based retail participation has sustained and extended bull markets. Without it, there’s a risk the rally becomes too top-heavy, reliant on institutional flows alone.
Social Post From Korean Crypto Influencer. Source: X/Crypto Dan
This may also affect altcoin momentum, which often relies on Korean exchange liquidity and retail-driven narratives.
Overall, the Coinbase Premium should stay positive if US demand remains strong. But if it dips while Korea stays negative, it may signal waning momentum.
A flip in the Korea Premium to positive would suggest a retail re-entry, and could fuel the next leg of Bitcoin’s rise.
Until then, Bitcoin’s price action will likely remain US-centric, led by ETFs, corporates, and wealth managers — not global retail investors.
This week, the US Senate failed to move forward on a major stablecoin regulation bill called the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act).
On May 8, Democrat lawmakers united to block the bill, as 49 of them voted against advancing the legislation, while 48 Republican senators supported it.
Bipartisan Support Fractures as Key Democrats Reject Stablecoin Legislation
Notably, several Democrats who had previously backed or co-sponsored the GENIUS Act—including Ruben Gallego, Mark Warner, Lisa Blunt Rochester, Andy Kim, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Angela Alsobrooks —voted against it.
This marks a surprise, considering the bill had previously garnered bipartisan legislative support.
Gallego and several colleagues defended their move in a joint statement, saying the proposal lacked critical safeguards.
According to them, the bill needed to include stronger language on anti-money laundering, more robust oversight of foreign stablecoin issuers, and clearer enforcement tools to ensure compliance.
They also cited national security concerns and the stability of the broader financial system among their unresolved issues.
“We recognize that the absence of regulation leaves consumers unprotected and vulnerable to predatory practices. We have approached this process constructively and with an open mind, with the understanding that additional improvements to the bill would be made,” the lawmakers stated.
However, Republican lawmakers like Pete Ricketts criticized the vote outcome, accusing Democrats of prioritizing political interests over policy progress.
Bo Hines, executive director of the President’s Council of Advisers on Digital Assets, argued that Senate Democrats missed a chance to enact sensible reforms to boost innovation and secure the US as a leader in financial technology.
“This bill wasn’t about politics—it was about building the future. It was about modernizing our outdated payment systems, and securing our position as the global standard-setter in financial technology. Instead, Democrats caved to fringe ideological factions, abandoning the opportunity to bring clarity to the market and foster American innovation,” Hines wrote on X.
Meanwhile, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, called the outcome “deeply unfortunate.” He warned that the absence of clear regulations could stall stablecoin adoption and suppress market growth, especially for altcoins.
Hougan also noted that a regulatory stalemate could lead to increased volatility across non-Bitcoin assets this summer.
“If stablecoin and market structure legislation grind to a halt in DC, it’s going to be a long summer for non-bitcoin crypto assets,” he noted.
Tether Welcomes Updated Stablecoin Bill
Following the failed vote, a newly updated draft of the GENIUS Act has surfaced with notable changes.
The new draft narrows its list of sponsors to Republican Senators Bill Hagerty, Cynthia Lummis, Tim Scott, and Dan Sullivan. Democrats Kristen Gillibrand and Angela Alsobrooks, who had previously backed the bill, were removed from the updated version.
The latest draft expands US jurisdiction to cover foreign stablecoin issuers like Tether that serve American users. It also refines the legal definition of digital asset service providers and updates the types of assets that can back stablecoins.
These changes suggest a push for broader oversight and greater flexibility in reserve management.
Meanwhile, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino responded positively to the bill’s revisions. He said the company supports constructive regulation and looks forward to further engagement with US policymakers.
According to Ardoino, establishing a solid regulatory framework could help secure the US dollar’s dominance in global markets.
“We acknowledge and appreciate the hard work that the administration has done to support the legislative process regarding this transformative technology…We look forward to the government’s continued efforts to legislate in a way that promotes global dollar hegemony,” he said.
The TRUMP meme coin project announced that the top 220 holders will be invited to a Gala Dinner with the US president, while the top 25 holders will receive a private White House tour.
The ranking will count holders between today and May 12. Since this announcement, TRUMP has spiked 50% and counting.
Whichever 220 users hold the most Trump tokens between now and May 12 will get an exclusive invitation to a dinner attended by the President.
“FOR THE TOP 25 COIN HOLDERS, YOU are Invited to an Exclusive Reception before Dinner with YOUR FAVORITE PRESIDENT! PLUS, We have separately by us arranged for a Special VIP White House Tour for you – so make sure you stay in town,” the announcement claimed.
Since this dinner offer first happened, TRUMP rocketed up 50% and counting. It’s unclear how long the momentum will last, but it clearly demonstrates that the man has a devoted fan base.
Some users have speculated that this dinner is an attempt to farm exit liquidity from retail investors, and it’ll be interesting to see how long the hype lasts.
Conventionally, this led to many trading shorting the meme coin, anticipating the price to go down. Yet, this announcement created a buying frenzy.
Most notably, the upcoming monthly token unlocks have been postponed by 90 days. This could be a direct attempt to inflate the market for a potential pump.
Bitcoin (BTC) enters the second week of May trading in a fragile but critical zone, with conflicting technical signals and growing macro uncertainty shaping short-term expectations. While the ADX from the Directional Movement Index is rising, bearish pressure still dominates, and momentum remains weak across multiple indicators.
Although the price continues to hold above the $92,900 support level, weakening EMAs and the looming FOMC meeting leave Bitcoin’s $100,000 recovery path uncertain, but not out of reach.
BTC Trend Strength Rises, but Bears Still in Control
Bitcoin’s Directional Movement Index (DMI) is showing a notable shift.
The ADX, which measures the strength of a trend regardless of direction, has climbed sharply to 25.93, up from 15.97 just two days ago—crossing the key 25 threshold that signals a trend is starting to gain traction.
This rising ADX suggests that volatility is returning and a new directional move may be forming, even if the direction itself is still unclear.
Looking at the components of the DMI, +DI (bullish strength) has bounced to 12.2, up slightly from yesterday’s low of 8.67 but still down significantly from 21.31 three days ago.
Meanwhile, -DI (bearish strength) is at 19.17, slightly off its peak of 25.44 but still higher than three days ago. This indicates that although the recent bearish momentum has cooled somewhat, sellers still have the upper hand.
With ADX rising and -DI leading, Bitcoin could remain under pressure unless +DI recovers sharply in the coming days.
Bitcoin Trapped Below the Cloud as Momentum Stalls
The current Ichimoku Cloud chart for Bitcoin reflects a market in consolidation, with a slight bearish undertone. Price action is sitting very close to the blue Kijun-sen (baseline), which typically represents medium-term trend momentum.
Trading beneath this line suggests that BTC lacks the strength to reclaim bullish momentum in the short term. The white candlesticks hovering near the cloud’s lower boundary indicate indecision among traders, with no clear breakout in sight.
The green Kumo (cloud) itself is relatively thin at this stage, hinting at a fragile support zone that could easily be broken if bearish pressure returns.
Looking ahead, the red Senkou Span B—the top of the projected cloud—is acting as dynamic resistance, capping any upward attempts. For a stronger bullish signal, BTC would need to close decisively above both the Kijun-sen and the entire cloud.
Complicating matters further, the Tenkan-sen (conversion line) is flat and overlapping with the Kijun-sen, signaling weak momentum and a lack of direction. Flat Tenkan and Kijun lines often precede sideways movement or delayed trend development.
Until Bitcoin breaks convincingly above the cloud with rising volume, the current setup leans neutral to bearish, with price trapped in a zone of low conviction and limited momentum.
Bitcoin Holds Key Support as $100,000 Reclaim Hangs in the Balance
Bitcoin price has remained resilient above the $90,000 level since April 22, repeatedly holding support near $92,945 despite broader market uncertainty. The exponential moving averages (EMAs) still reflect a bullish structure, with short-term averages positioned above long-term ones.
However, there are early signs of weakening momentum, as the short-term EMAs have begun to slope downward—an indication that buyers may be losing strength soon.
If BTC fails to hold its key support, a drop toward $88,839 could follow, breaking the structure that has held for over two weeks.
Still, some analysts remain confident. Nick Purin, founder of The Coin Bureau, believes Bitcoin is well-positioned to reclaim the $100,000 mark, even as markets brace for volatility surrounding the upcoming FOMC meeting:
“It will be a volatile week. Firstly, we have the FOMC meeting tomorrow. While it’s pretty clear there will be no rate cuts, it’s what Chair Powell says that could move the markets. On top of that, trading volume is low and the long/short ratio is sitting at 50/50, which means that, yet again, BTC can swing in either direction from here. The good news is that there’s a great deal of buying interest around the $90,000-$93,000 range, so a dip to those levels is nothing to be concerned about – it will likely bounce back. And overall, the BTC/USD chart is looking strong as it continues to print higher lows.” – Purin told BeInCrypto.
Nick states how Fed next decisions could influence the market in the next months:
“If the Fed surprises with some dovish tones as well as guidance for rate cuts in June, there’s room for Bitcoin to rally all the way back up to that $100,000 level, which remains a liquidity magnet. But even if Powell strikes a hawkish tone, the impact on BTC will likely be minimal. There’s simply too much positive momentum – spot BTC ETFs are hoovering up assets, corporates are building up BTC treasuries and the correlation between Bitcoin and stocks is breaking down. On top of this, historic data shows that BTC has posted gains during nine out of the last 12 Mays. So, despite the likelihood of heightened volatility, the near future is looking promising. As such, following the old adage of ‘sell in May’ would be madness at this point.” – Purin told BeInCrypto.
A recovery in momentum could first drive BTC to retest resistance at $95,657, with a breakout potentially leading to $98,002 and eventually a challenge of the psychological $100,000 level.
With macro headwinds and technical crossroads converging this week, the next move will likely hinge on how BTC responds to its support zone and how broader market sentiment reacts to Fed commentary.
