The simmering trade war between the U.S. and China has taken a fiery turn with China’s recent export ban on three critical minerals: gallium, germanium, and antimony. These minerals are vital for the production of semiconductors, military equipment, and advanced technology.  

Retaliatory Move

Beijing implemented the ban as a direct response to U.S. trade restrictions. The Chinese Commerce Ministry claims the move protects national security, citing the “dual-use” nature of the banned materials, which have both civilian and military applications. This comes after the U.S. imposed restrictions on Chinese tech companies and tightened export controls on AI chips and manufacturing equipment.  

Market Repercussions

The export ban has sent shockwaves through the global market. Gallium prices skyrocketed by 228% in 2024, and Chinese trade records show a complete halt in shipments of germanium and gallium to the U.S. since October. This disruption is particularly concerning because the U.S. was previously a top buyer of both materials.  

U.S. Response and the Scramble for Alternatives

Industry experts are questioning the U.S.’s strategy. “China has been sending clear signals about its willingness to retaliate,” says Todd Malan of Talon Metals. The U.S. is scrambling to find alternative suppliers, working with the European Union and a consortium of 15 countries in the Minerals Security Partnership. Domestically, new antimony mines are being opened in Idaho, along with increased exploration efforts for these critical minerals in Wyoming, Montana, and Nevada.  

This latest export ban follows new U.S. restrictions on over 140 Chinese tech companies. Experts predict further escalation, with President-elect Trump threatening tariffs on Chinese goods ranging from 10% to 60%. “This trade war is a recipe for disaster with no winners,” warns Peter Arkell of the Global Mining Association of China. Analysts fear the ban could expand to include other critical materials like tungsten, magnesium, and aluminum alloys.  

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The long-term impact of China’s export ban on the U.S. remains to be seen. However, it’s clear that the current situation presents significant challenges for U.S. manufacturers and the global supply chain for essential technologies.