Polymarket’s prediction market for the next Pope crossed $6.4 million in total bets today after a viral hoax falsely claimed the Catholic Church intended to excommunicate gamblers.
The fake announcement, circulated on X by an account with over 240,000 followers, mimicked an official Church statement.
Polymarket Bets on the Next Pope
The viral fake post condemned platforms like Polymarket for turning the sacred papal election into a “speculative exercise” and urged the faithful to treat the Conclave as a spiritual, not financial, matter.
However, the post was quickly debunked. It lacked the Church’s formal tone and formatting, did not capitalize key terms like “Conclave” or “Papal Election,” and unusually named Polymarket directly—something highly improbable from the Vatican.
Although the rumor was fabricated, it inadvertently revealed rare internal data from Polymarket. A screenshot embedded in the hoax suggested that total wagers on the papal successor stood at $2.5 million as of April 21. That figure has since more than doubled.
Polymarket opened the “Next Pope” market in February, well before Pope Francis’ death earlier this week, as speculation around succession grew.
“The Holy See deplores the reduction of the solemn conclave to a mere speculative exercise on platforms such as Polymarket and urges the faithful to uphold the dignity of the papal election as a matter of prayerful discernment rather than profit,” claimed a fake notice published by Yoxic, an X user with over 240,000 followers.
Since the Conclave convened, trading volume has surged. In just three days, bets on the outcome have climbed by nearly 160%
Still, the sudden spike in trading highlights the intersection of global religion and decentralized speculation. As of today, the “Next Pope” market is one of the most active on Polymarket.
While the Catholic Church is unlikely to weigh in on Web3 anytime soon, the spike in interest reveals how digital markets increasingly reflect—and amplify—the intensity of public discourse.
In comparison, Ethereum (ETH)generated 46.28 million in fees in February, with 7.49 million as of March 7. While these numbers suggest Solana is ahead, Michael Nadeau, the founder of The DeFi Report, claims this comparison may be misleading.
Although Nadeau acknowledges Solana’s impressive growth, he cautions that it might be less organic than it seems.
“But if you look under the hood, it looks like a house of cards,” he wrote.
According to Nadeau, over the past 30 days, 17.31% of addresses have contributed to 95% of the total fees generated on Ethereum. For Solana, the figure is strikingly small, only 1.26%.
Nadeau added that Wintermute, a prominent market-making firm, is the primary driver behind this fee generation. The rest of the fee is attributed to bots.
He claimed that these wallets drive the network’s activity through practices such as sandwich attacks and pumping meme coins. This often comes at the expense of retail investors.
For context, a sandwich attack is a front-running strategy in which an attacker exploits large trades. The attacker buys the asset before the large trade, anticipating a price increase, and sells afterward, profiting from the price movement while negatively impacting the original trader.
Nadeau cautioned that the reliance on a small subset of users for fee generation creates vulnerabilities. If retail traders become aware of the extent of bot-driven manipulation, they may withdraw from the ecosystem. This, in turn, could significantly impact Solana’s revenue projections.
“Nothing against Solana. Massive comeback story. But my sense tells me another period of “chewing glass” is yet to come,” he concluded.
Solana’s speed and cost efficiency have made it a favorite among developers and traders. However, this concentration of fees has raised concerns among market analysts.
“When 95% of fees come from 1.26% of users, it’s less “decentralized finance” and more “exclusive finance,” Superchargd co-founder wrote on X.
Another user also warned that Solana may not thrive well as the industry matures and free market forces fully take effect.
“Solana doesn’t have a future; it’s a Ponzi scheme designed for grifting,” he said.
“Solana is a complete house of cards built on wash trading bots and centralized control,” a user remarked.
He also emphasized that validators profiting from failed transactions and the rise of Solana meme coins have harmed the space.
The criticism comes just after financial giant Franklin Templeton predicted in a report that Solana’s DeFi ecosystem could rival—and even surpass—Ethereum’s market valuation. The firm highlighted Solana’s scalability, low fees, and surging user activity as key factors driving its potential.
Amid the mounting criticism, Solana faces a pivotal moment. While its technological advancements and cost-efficiency have earned it a loyal following, its centralized fee-generation model and reliance on market manipulation tactics could pose significant risks to its future. How Solana adapts to these concerns will determine whether it can sustain its growth or struggle to maintain relevance.
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