September 2024 saw unexpected growth in U.S. retail sales, casting a shadow over the prospects for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut. The rise in consumer spending, coupled with a surprising dip in jobless claims, has ignited a momentary boost for the economy and the cryptocurrency market. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank (ECB) made headlines with its third rate cut of the year, aimed at addressing a weak growth outlook and inflation concerns. As these economic indicators unfold, they create a complex backdrop for digital assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Strong Retail Sales Cloud Fed Rate Cut Outlook
Recent data indicated that U.S. retail sales soared beyond expectations, prompting discussions about the Fed’s upcoming rate decisions. With jobless claims falling to 241,000—well below forecasts—investors are grappling with mixed signals about the economy’s momentum. While stronger retail sales could suggest resilience, they also raise questions about the Fed’s potential for easing rates during its December meeting. The uncertainty was further compounded by a disappointing industrial production report, which clouds the overall economic outlook.
As the S&P 500 opened higher on this news, the optimism felt fragile, with analysts cautioning that these trends may not sustain. Despite these bright spots, U.S. Treasury yields climbed, with the 10-year yield rising over 5 basis points to 4.071% and the 2-year yield inching up to 3.993%. Higher Treasury yields generally entice investors towards traditional assets, thereby dampening the appeal of riskier investments, including cryptocurrencies.
ECB Cuts Rates, Sees Optimistic Inflation Outlook
In Europe, the ECB followed suit with a key interest rate cut to 3.25%, its third reduction this year. This decision reflects an acknowledgment of weakening economic conditions and an easing of inflationary pressures. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that the disinflation process was “well on track,” marking the most optimistic outlook during this cycle.
Interestingly, inflation in the eurozone slowed to 1.8% in September, dipping below the ECB’s target of 2% for the first time in three years. However, the central bank remains cautious, warning of potential temporary spikes that could push inflation above target levels. Unlike the Fed’s more aggressive cuts, the ECB opted for a conservative 25 basis point reduction, suggesting a more measured approach to monetary policy.
Despite favorable conditions from the ECB’s rate cut, the cryptocurrency market has not responded positively. September’s strong retail sales and a decrease in U.S. jobless claims indicate ongoing economic resilience, which has contributed to a rise in Treasury yields. This shift toward traditional investments creates a challenging environment for crypto, as demand for alternative assets wanes amid concerns over the sustainability of economic recovery.
Lower interest rates typically support growth and may eventually benefit digital assets. However, the current uncertainty surrounding future Fed policies casts a cautious tone for investors. As the market grapples with these mixed economic signals, temporary downward pressure on crypto prices is expected.
Looking ahead, the potential for a rebound in the cryptocurrency market hinges on forthcoming economic indicators aligning with expectations of continued U.S. Fed rate cuts. If inflation shows signs of further decline in both the U.S. and the eurozone, we may see a renewed interest in digital assets. For now, investors remain in a wait-and-see mode, navigating through a complex landscape of mixed signals and economic uncertainties. As always, the interplay between traditional financial markets and cryptocurrencies will continue to be closely watched in the coming months.
In conclusion, while recent data may provide a temporary boost to the economy, the implications for the crypto market remain uncertain. Investors should remain vigilant as they assess how evolving economic conditions will shape the future of digital assets.
Made in USA coins like Solana (SOL), SUI, and Aerodrome Finance (AERO) are showing very different signals heading into the last week of April.
SOL is bouncing back with strong DEX volume, SUI is gaining ecosystem momentum despite price weakness, and AERO is under pressure as Base experiments with a new “Content Coins” narrative. From recovery rallies to ecosystem expansion and narrative shifts, each offers a unique setup to watch this week.
Solana (SOL)
Over the past seven days, Solana has climbed 6%, reclaiming the $130 level and reigniting bullish sentiment after correcting by 53% between February 7 and April 7.
If this positive momentum holds, SOL could challenge resistance at $147. A decisive break above that level may lead to further gains toward $160 and potentially $180.
However, if the rally stalls, support at $124 becomes critical. A drop below that could push prices down to $112, risking the recent recovery.
SUI
The SUI ecosystem has gained notable traction over the past few days, driven by a surge in meme coin activity and a spike in decentralized exchange (DEX) usage.
SUI reached $2.14 billion in DEX volume, placing it 6th among all chains and even surpassing Arbitrum’s daily volumes on several occasions.
Despite the ecosystem buzz, however, SUI’s price has struggled to keep up with the momentum.
Over the last seven days, SUI has dropped more than 9%, showing signs of a deeper correction. If the downtrend continues, it could test the key support at $2.02, with further downside toward $1.71 if that level breaks.
On the flip side, a bullish reversal could send SUI toward resistance at $2.28. A breakout there opens the door to $2.41, $2.54, and potentially $2.83 if the rally gains strength.
Aerodrome Finance (AERO)
Aerodrome, the leading decentralized exchange focused on the Base chain, has generated $6.38 million in fees over the past 30 days, solidifying its position as the backbone of Base’s DeFi activity.
Despite its dominance, AERO has been under pressure, falling over 10% in the last seven days and more than 20% in the last month.
At the same time, Base is pushing a new narrative centered around “Content Coins,” though some users argue they resemble meme coins more than a distinct innovation.
Base’s DEX volume has dropped 21% in the past week, but if the “Content Coins” trend gains traction, it could reignite interest in the ecosystem—and in AERO.
Should momentum return, AERO could climb to test resistance at $0.414, with potential upside toward $0.47 and $0.54 if the rally is strong.
On the downside, if bearish pressure continues, support at $0.36 is key. A breakdown there could lead to further losses toward $0.34 and possibly $0.28, making the coming weeks critical for AERO’s direction.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is quickly becoming a notable force in the push for global crypto adoption. With growing participation from institutions and enterprises and supportive regulations for Web3 technology, MENA is set to expand its impact.
BeInCrypto interviewed Stephan Apel, CEO of Outlier Ventures, to explore the characteristics of these tech-driven economies and their anticipated innovations.
Web3 Adoption and Market Growth
MENA has emerged as a significant center for Web3 development, facilitated by a combination of demographic, technological, and cultural factors. The region’s entrepreneurial spirit has also fostered an environment conducive to the adoption of decentralized technologies.
“The MENA market has set a standard for adopting next-gen technologies and using them to boost their economic transformation. This is especially true for Web3 technologies— the region recognised their potential early on, offering the resources needed for these projects to scale and thrive on both regional and global levels,” Apel told BeInCrypto.
Consequently, the region is witnessing an increase in startups, investors, and developers exploring Web3 and its diverse applications.
A 2024 Chainalysis report revealed that MENA was the seventh biggest crypto market worldwide. From July 2023 to June 2024, the region saw $338.7 billion in online crypto transactions, representing 7.5% of all crypto transactions globally.
Share of all cryptocurrency transaction value by region. Source: Chainalysis.
Notably, Turkey and Morocco ranked among the top 30 countries globally in crypto adoption. Turkey secured the 11th spot, while Morocco ranked 27th. These nations alone accounted for $137 billion and $12.7 billion in received cryptocurrency value, respectively.
Furthermore, the MENA region’s crypto activity is predominantly driven by institutional and professional players, as a substantial 93% of all value transferred involves transactions exceeding $10,000.
Meanwhile, Gulf Corporation Council (GCC) members have distinguished themselves through their ambitious technological initiatives.
MENA’s Strategic Shift Towards AI
The onset of artificial intelligence (AI) has prompted governments and businesses within the Middle East to acknowledge the global trend towards related advanced technologies. Countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are considering their strategic position concerning this technological transformation.
According to a report by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), AI could contribute up to $15.7 trillion to the global economy in 2030. The consulting firm predicts that the Middle East will bring 2% of the total global benefits, equal to $320 billion.
MENA’s pioneering role in AI development. Source: PwC.
The PwC report also indicates that Saudi Arabia will see the largest absolute gains from AI by 2030, with an estimated US$135.2 billion added to its economy, or 12.4% of GDP. In terms of GDP percentage, however, the UAE is expected to see the greatest impact, approaching 14% of its 2030 GDP. Meanwhile, for GCC states Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar, AI is expected to contribute 8.2% of their GDP.
Given the region’s latest initiatives and investments in AI innovation, these numbers come as no surprise.
Saudi Arabia’s AI Development Initiatives
In 2016, the Saudi Arabian government launched Vision 2030, a program to promote economic, social, and cultural diversification. Integral to this vision is a strategic shift towards artificial intelligence and data-driven innovation, a key component of the nation’s economic diversification efforts.
Saudi Arabia is making notable advancements in AI. The country aims to reduce its reliance on oil by developing advanced technology sectors through targeted investments, infrastructure development, and workforce training.
“Fueled by its Vision 2030 initiative, Saudi Arabia has already created a thriving startup ecosystem, dedicated significant investment in emerging technologies,and designed policies to attract global talent and entrepreneurship,” Apel told BeInCrypto.
The Saudi Data and Artificial Intelligence Authority (SDAIA) spearheads Saudi Arabia’s push into artificial intelligence, shaping and implementing the country’s national data and AI strategy. The National Data Bank is a cornerstone of their efforts. It is designed as a central hub for data access and analysis, facilitating AI applications across public and private sectors.
Last November, Saudi Arabia also unveiled Project Transcendence. The $100 billion investment initiative focuses on accelerating the integration of AI and advanced technologies.
Similar to its neighbor, the UAE has actively pursued AI adoption.
UAE’s AI Strategy and Investments
In 2017, the UAE launched its National Strategy for Artificial Intelligence, which aims to make the country a global leader in the field by 2031. The UAE AI and Blockchain Council oversees this strategy, which impacts sectors like education, energy, and tourism.
The UAE is already reaping the benefits of its AI initiatives. In April, Microsoft announced a $1.5 billion investment in G42, an Abu Dhabi-based technology holding company. G42 is known for its data centers and the development of Jais, a leading Arabic-language AI model.
In September, G42 and Nvidia partnered to create AI-driven solutions for improved weather forecasting. The collaboration aims to advance climate-related technologies by using Nvidia’s Earth-2 platform, which enables AI-augmented climate and weather simulations.
Three months later, Abu Dhabi-based global technological ecosystem Hub71 partnered with Google to boost startup growth in the UAE. This collaboration will bring Google’s “Google for Startups” program to Abu Dhabi, including a dedicated accelerator for Hub71 startups in 2025.
He also drew attention to the planned convergence of AI and Web3 technologies in these prominent regions.
Convergence of AI, Web3, and IoT
Integrating the Internet of Things (IoT), blockchain, and AI technologies is gaining traction among businesses in the Middle East. By combining these technologies, organizations can access new avenues for growth, increase efficiency, and create novel user experiences.
In 2018, the Dubai Airport Freezone Authority launched Dubai Blink, a platform that integrates AI, blockchain, and virtual licenses to facilitate global trade. This system enhances supply chain innovation through ‘smart commerce’ by expediting trade with a unified online platform. Furthermore, it addressed the cumbersome process of supplier identification by using AI algorithms to streamline and accelerate the validation process.
Ultimately, MENA’s proactive approach to technological advancement, coupled with its strategic focus on Web3 and AI, signals a future where the region will be a pivotal architect in shaping the digital economy.
During a livestream hosted by the leading exchange HTX, Founder of TRON and Advisor to HTX, Justin Sun expressed confidence in the approval of the newly filed Canary Capital Group Staked TRX ETF, calling it a “non-replicable” opportunity for both investors and the broader crypto market.
The event, titled “TRX ETF is Coming? The First Altcoin ETF with Staking Rewards – Will It Spark a New Crypto Bull Run?”, featured @HTX_Molly and leading crypto influencers in discussion with Sun on the TRX ETF filing, the outlook for staking-based ETFs, and the path to regulatory compliance.
A First-of-Its-Kind ETF With Staking Rewards
The key differentiator of this TRX ETF application is its inclusion of a staking mechanism, which could provide investors with enhanced yield opportunities. Notably, the TRX ETF is among the few, out of all crypto ETFs with pending S-1 filings, to incorporate staking features.
While the application process for such ETFs is significantly more challenging than for spot ETFs – evidenced by the past failures of Staked ETH ETF applications – Justin Sun remains hopeful. He believes the SEC, under its new crypto-friendly Chairman Paul Atkins, is showing increased openness toward cryptocurrencies. Therefore, the TRX ETF application seeks immediate approval, aiming to be the groundbreaking cryptocurrency ETF to integrate staking. Its success, he asserts, would make its value “unreplicable.”
Sun: Market Is Undervaluing Approval Odds
“The market might be undervaluing the probability of the TRX ETF’s approval, a matter of which I am highly confident,” Justin Sun remarked. His confidence stems partly from his considerable experience with crypto ETF applications, including his involvement in securing approval for the initial Bitcoin futures ETFs and the subsequent Bitcoin spot ETFs. Furthermore, the TRX ETP’s successful listing and outperformance against Bitcoin and Ethereum equivalents in Europe provide a strong precedent.
Justin argues that the rarity of ETF applications reaching the S-1 filing stage indicates that approval for the TRX ETF may not be far off. He also noted that even if the SEC rejects the initial submission, the team will revise the S-1 document in accordance with the SEC’s recommendations and continue the application process.
TRX ETF Could Catalyze the Next Bull Market
Justin Sun suggests that the potential impact of TRX ETF approval is underestimated. “The approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF demonstrated that a few tens of billions of dollars in inflows could trigger a trillion-dollar market rally. This is a prime example of ‘confidence leverage.’ The TRX ETF’s approval could have a similar or even greater impact, potentially igniting the next bull run and attracting a new wave of institutional interest in crypto ETFs on Wall Street.”
Simultaneously, the ETF will facilitate RWA (Real-World Assets) growth. “The real breakthrough for RWA won’t just come from technological progress but from building a mutually beneficial ecosystem,” Justin explained. “Traditional institutions aren’t held back by technology. They’re limited by the absence of a clear mechanism to acquire public chain tokens and share in their appreciation. The ETF serves as the key to unlocking this – without it, large-scale institutional investment is unlikely, thus hindering the movement of trillions in assets onto the blockchain. The ETF isn’t just a price catalyst; it’s the decisive factor in the successful adoption of RWA.”
Looking ahead, Justin emphasized that this year will be pivotal for enhancing regulatory compliance and expanding collaborations within the U.S. market. “The TRX ETF application is just the beginning. TRON and HTX have significant developments planned for each subsequent quarter, with the necessary groundwork already underway.”
About HTX
Founded in 2013, HTX has evolved from a virtual asset exchange into a comprehensive ecosystem of blockchain businesses that span digital asset trading, financial derivatives, research, investments, incubation, and other businesses.
As a world-leading gateway to Web3, HTX harbors global capabilities that enable it to provide users with safe and reliable services. Adhering to the growth strategy of “Global Expansion, Thriving Ecosystem, Wealth Effect, Security & Compliance,” HTX is dedicated to providing quality services and values to virtual asset enthusiasts worldwide.
