The crypto market took a hit in early 2025 in contrast to the late 2024 highs it achieved. The total crypto market cap dropped over 18% in Q1 falling to $2.8 trillion at the close of Q1, after it briefly touched $3.8 trillion high in January.
Even with the market slump, Bitcoin’s dominance surged to 59.1%, which is its highest since 2021.
Ethereum Struggles Dropping 45% in Q1
Ethereum fell by a sharp 3.9 percentage points, falling to just 7.9% in market dominance. This marks Ether’s lowest share since late 2019 which shows its sluggish performance amidst the broader market downturn.
Ethereum plummeted 45.3% in Q1 2025, closing at $1,805, wiping out all its 2024 gains. It massively underperformed cryptos like Bitcoin, Solana, XRP, and Binance Coin, which recorded minimum declines. Its trading volume also dropped from $30 billion in Q4 2024 to $24.4 billion in the latest quarter.
Whale Activity Worsens the Drop
Additionally, recent data from lookonchain reveals that a wallet linked to the Ethereum Foundation deposited 1,000 $ETH worth $1.58M to Kraken, which could trigger a drop in price.
Ethereum Foundation (EF) faced criticism in 2024 for offloading 4,466 ETH worth $12.61 million during bearish market conditions. These sales have historically been followed by sharp price drops, adding more pressure to already lagging Ether.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt also recently warned that Ether could crash to $800, revisiting its 2022 lows. ETH is now over 60% below its 2021 peak of $4,878, with most of the losses in just the last three months. The token is currently trading at $1,757, down over 2% today.
Bitcoin slid 0.7% on Sunday, May 4, falling below $96,000 for the first time since midweek. The drop marks a second consecutive day of losses, following a strong institutional-led rally that pushed BTC to a 70-day high of $98,200 on Friday, per Coingecko data.
Despite reclaiming a $2 trillion market capitalization briefly, Bitcoin’s bullish momentum has stalled, coinciding with soft weekend volumes and renewed macro uncertainty.
On a weekly basis, Bitcoin is still up 4.5%, while 30-day performance remains strong at 12.8%, supported by ETF inflows and renewed accumulation from U.S. corporate treasuries.
However, resistance around the $98,000 level has proven tough to break, especially in the absence of clear macro tailwinds.
At the same time, Ethereum’s inability to hold above $1,900 and declining futures trading volume across top exchanges like Binance and CME further confirm the cautious short-term sentiment over the weekend.
DeMark Warns: Bear Market in U.S. Stocks Could Be Imminent
Tom DeMark, creator of the TD Sequential indicator and a trusted technical advisor to major hedge funds, has issued a fresh warning: a U.S. stock market top is imminent and could give way to a full-blown bear market within months.
DeMark, who accurately predicted the February top and April low in the S&P 500, says the index is showing clear signs of exhaustion.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis | DeMark/Market WIT
His analysis highlights that two more closing highs in the S&P 500 would complete a 9-count exhaustion cycle, a historically reliable signal for trend reversals.
Once this occurs, DeMark expects a retracement below 4,835 the intraday low from Aprilrepresenting a 20%+ drop from February’s highs.
“A top is imminent. Too much technical damage has been done,” DeMark said,
He also, added that the market remains vulnerable to improvement in global trade outlook or liquidity conditions.
What’s Next: Will DeMark’s Prediction Derail Bitcoin’s $100K Target?
Bitcoin price correlation to traditional markets, especially the S&P 500, has become increasingly relevant in the current macro environment.
On February 19, when China imposed retaliatory tariffs and global markets dipped, Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 fell to a yearly low of 0.27%. At the time, BTC acted as a partial hedge, decoupling from equities.
Bitcoin vs S&P 500 Price Correlation
However, President Donald Trump’s softening stance on tariffs and aggressiv push for rate cuts, have boosted broader market sentiment in recent weeks.
As a result, the BTC/S&P 500 correlation has surged, reaching 0.82% at press time.
This implies that Bitcoin may now respond more directly to U.S. equity moves than earlier this year.
If the market correction predicted by DeMark is driven by geopolitical tensions or inflationary trade tariffs, Bitcoin could attract safe-haven flows and maintain upward momentum.
Historical data shows BTC often benefits from global instability and monetary easing.
On the other hand, if the S&P 500’s decline stems from systemic risk such as a recession, financial contagion, or an energy shock.
Bitcoin may not be spared. In such scenarios, investors typically flee risk assets broadly, and BTC could experience significant drawdowns.
Conclusion: Bitcoin’s $100K Outlook Hinges on Crash Catalyst
Bitcoin’s $100K target and sustained $2 trillion market cap remain within reach, but macro risks are now front and center.
Whether Tom DeMark’s bear market call derails the BTC rally will largely depend on what drives the next wave of equity losses.
If it’s policy or trade-related, Bitcoin may rally as a hedge. But if the downturn it triggered by deep economic stress, recession or energy crisis, Bitcoin price could fall with the pack, as Demark predicts
Bitcoin price is under threat from fresh geopolitical pressures, with the chances of an Iranian retaliation against the US surging to 66%. The flagship cryptocurrency has traded above $100K for over 40 days, but the US-Iran conflict is sending prices to new lows. Bitcoin Slips Below $101K Driven By Fears Of An Iranian Retaliation According
Ripple (XRP) price consolidates below $2.5 on Saturday, May 11, with gains capped at 5%. The Fear and Greed indicator hinting at volatile days ahead as US and China begin trade talks to mitigate ongoing reciprocal tariffs.
Ripple (XRP) Stalls Below $2.50 as Traders Book Profits on SEC Settlement
Ripple (XRP) failed to keep pace with rival Layer-1 tokens after its headline $50 million settlement with the U.S. SEC.
Traders used the news-driven rally to realize gains, triggering a stall below the $2.50 resistance.
XRP price gains on Saturday were capped at 5%, trailing behind Ethereum and Cardano with 10.5% and 7% upticks respectively, according to the latest data from CoinGecko.
Ripple (XRP) Price Action | Source: Coingecko
Despite the underperformance, XRP trading volume remains elevated. Weekly average volumes are trending 38% above the 30-day mean.
Momentum indicators on the 7-day and 14-day charts still show double-digit price growth.
This signals strong underlying demand and investor confidence, setting up a consolidation base for potential breakout.
The $2.50 mark remains a psychologically significant resistance level.
XRP has tested this threshold three times in the past month, each time retreating on increased sell pressure.
Rather than slide below the $2 mark, positive sentiment from the SEC settlement and Trump’s softening stance on trade deals may trigger another Ripple price leg-up in the coming sessions.
US-China Trade Talks in Switzerland Could Lift XRP Sentiment
Simultaneously, diplomatic overtures between the U.S. and China are drawing investor attention. Trade envoys met in Geneva Saturday for tariff negotiations.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent leads the American delegation, with Vice Premier He Lifeng heading the Chinese side.
The talks follow months of economic escalation. A 145% U.S. tariff wall on Chinese imports and Beijing’s 125% countermeasures have suppressed bilateral trade volumes. Goldman Sachs projects these tariffs will double U.S. inflation to 4% by year-end. Even halving the current rates may not restore normal trade flows.
Market participants are closely monitoring statements from Washington.
“80% Tariff on China seems right! Up to Scott B,” Donald Trump posted on Truth Social, signaling both pressure and flexibility from tariffs of up-to 150% currently levied on certain imports from China.
Trump’s softening stance on trade policy and aggressive calls for Fed rate cuts continue to impact capital flows, investor risk appetite and global market sentiment positively.
XRP Fear and Greed Index Enters Extreme Greed Zone
Ripple’s market sentiment is signalling overheating. The XRP-specific Fear and Greed Index shows a current reading of 78, firmly in “Greed” territory. This marks a sharp uptick from the monthly timeframe low values of 49 just seven days ago.
Key indicators like price impulse, social sentiment, and volume are all flashing “Extreme Greed.” Only whale concentration and network dominance lag behind, indicating some institutional caution.
Ripple (XRP) Fear and Greed Index, May 10, 2025 | Source: CFGI.io
This sentiment trend, coupled with geopolitical optimism and strong technical support at $2.25, could set the stage for XRP to challenge the $2.50 resistance once again.
Should Ripple price continue to consolidate above that threshold, the path to $3 becomes more realistic, especially if trade negotiations progress or capital rotation from Bitcoin accelerates.
XRP Price Forecast Today: Bulls to Target $2.75 if XRP Clears Mid-Keltner Channel
XRP price is holding firm above $2.44 on May 11, showing resilience after briefly touching an intraday high of $2.48.
Despite a mild 1.2% pullback on the daily close, the structure remains decisively bullish.
XRP trades above the midline of the Keltner Channel at $2.24, which now acts as dynamic support, while the upper band at $2.45 remains within reach, hinting at latent upside pressure.
Notably, the BBTrend oscillator has surged to 6.08, confirming a shift in directional strength that supports continuation rather than exhaustion.
Ripple (XRP) Price Forecast | Source: TradingView
Volume remains elevated at 8 million XRP, aligning with increasing buying momentum over the last three sessions, suggesting that institutional flows and larger holders are accumulating.
With XRP maintaining a strong posture above the 20-day mean, bulls are likely to test the psychological $2.50 barrier again, aiming next for $2.75. The breakout candle from May 9 remains intact, indicating follow-through is still in play.
Bitcoin forecast today also leans bullish, trading at $63.4K with RSI near 57 and holding above its 50-day EMA.
XRP typically follows Bitcoin’s macro sentiment, and with BTC showing no signs of reversal, XRP’s breakout remains technically supported. In the short-term, bearish risks may re-emerge if XRP price breaks below $2.24, invalidating the current channel breakout.
