Both Bitcoin and the stock markets surged today after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent allegedly suggested that tariffs with China will be eased. This is the second time in a month that tariff rumors led to a market rally.
However, TradFi market hype began deflating without the White House assuring a pause, while Bitcoin remained steady. This could prove a useful data point that Bitcoin is decoupling from the stock market after previous correlation.
Bessent’s Tariff Comments Spur Market Pump
Trump’s tariffs have caused a lot of economic chaos, and the uncertainty is arguably having the worst impact on markets. Two weeks ago, false rumors of a tariff pause caused markets to pump, followed by a real pause announcement.
Today, a Bloomberg report claims that Scott Bessent believes that the US will de-escalate proposed China tariffs.
“The next steps with China are, no one thinks the current status quo is sustainable at 145 and 125 [percent]. So I would posit that over the very near future, there will be a de-escalation. And I think that that should give the world, the markets, a sigh of relief… We have an embargo now, on both sides, right?” one source claimed Bessent said.
Immediately after this rumor began circulating, Bitcoin’s price began rising alongside traditional stocks. The Dow Jones rebounded 1,000 points, the S&P 500 went up by 500, and Nasdaq rose 3%.
Together, these factors created a fresh degree of market optimism.
Bessent, a longtime crypto advocate, has been more ambivalent than other cabinet members like Peter Navarro or Howard Lutnick regarding tariffs.
Additionally, regardless of his personal beliefs, he has no actual authority to change Trump’s decision. After a period of relief, TradFi stocks began to fall once again.
There are two interesting takeaways from this. First of all, two weeks ago, the stock market fell after the White House officially denied pause rumors. Today, however, there hasn’t been any official response to Bessent’s tariff comments.
Nonetheless, traditional markets still fell, while BTC remained steady above $91,000 and the overall crypto market cap hit $2.96 trillion.
Does this data give credence to the notion that Bitcoin will be safe during a recession? It’s hard to say so far. If it rises alongside bullish macroeconomic developments but remains stable during bearish ones, that seems too good to be true.
Still, it’s subject to very different concerns from TradFi. Investors should closely examine further tariff rumors in the future.
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