XRP continues its decline, falling 10% over the past week as bearish momentum strengthens.
The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization remains under pressure, with waning buying interest hinting at the possibility of further losses.
XRP’s Outlook Worsens as Buying Pressure Fades
Since reaching an all-time high of $3.40 on January 16, XRP has remained mostly within a descending parallel channel. This is a bearish pattern formed when an asset’s price moves between two downward-sloping parallel trendlines, indicating a downtrend.
When an asset’s price trades within this channel, it marks a period of decline during which sellers dominate, and buying activity is low. This has put significant downward pressure on XRP’s price in the past month.
XRP currently trades at $2.11, exchanging hands below its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA). This key moving average measures the asset’s average price over the past 20 trading days, giving more weight to recent prices to reflect short-term trends.
When an asset’s price falls below its 20-day EMA, it suggests that selling pressure is strong and the asset is in a bearish phase. This signals continued downside momentum for XRP unless buying interest increases to push the token’s price back above the EMA.
Further, XRP’s Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is currently in a downtrend and is poised to breach its zero line. This indicator, which measures money flow into and out of an asset, is at 0.02 as of this writing.
When an asset’s CMF attempts to fall below zero, it reflects the weakening buying pressure and increasing selling dominance. This suggests that money is flowing out of XRP rather than into it, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
XRP Faces Bearish Pressure: Could It Crash to $1.47?
XRP risks dropping below $2 if new demand remains insignificant. In that scenario, it could plummet to $1.47, a low it last reached in November.
On the other hand, if selling pressure wanes and XRP sees an uptick in buying activity, it could push its price past the resistance at $2.81 toward the $3.40 all-time high.
Japan’s upcoming election of the House of Councillors (the Upper House) represents a critical inflection point for crypto tax policy, with potential ramifications extending far beyond domestic markets. The political dynamics surrounding this electoral contest could fundamentally reshape Japan’s regulatory landscape for digital assets.
Meanwhile, opposition momentum against the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition threatens established cryptocurrency taxation frameworks, creating unprecedented opportunities for comprehensive reform. Market participants are closely monitoring political developments as taxation policy emerges as a defining campaign issue with substantial Bitcoin market implications.
What You Should Know
Once among the world’s largest crypto markets, Japan’s dominance diminished following major hacking scandals like the Mt. Gox and Coincheck cases.
Still, Japan’s crypto market holds enormous potential as its size of personal financial assets is estimated at ¥2,000 trillion, equivalent to $13.5 trillion. However, high tax rates and complex loss calculations on crypto assets create significant investment barriers.
The July 20th election could fundamentally reshape Japan’s national governance structure, representing a pivotal moment for cryptocurrency policy.
As a result, opposition parties are gaining momentum while the ruling coalition struggles with tax reforms. The Japanese crypto industry closely watches potential changes to crypto tax classification. In particular, opposition parties advocate for separate taxation systems replacing the current miscellaneous income rules.
Election Outcome Forecast
The ruling LDP-Komeito coalition faces potential majority loss in the Upper House. Major outlet Yomiuri Shimbun projects historically low seat counts for both parties.
The House of Councillors contains 248 members serving six-year terms. Half the chamber gets elected every three years in staggered elections. This election covers 75 constituency seats plus 50 proportional representation positions.
The ruling coalition holds 66 seats among those up for election. This time, coalition parties need 50+ new seats to maintain overall majority control.
Ruling Coalition Seat Projections
Data from Japan’s three major national newspapers
Yomiuri Shimbun
31-52
seats projected
Asahi Shimbun
33-51
seats projected
Nikkei
~50
seats projected
Critical Threshold
Ruling coalition needs 50+ seats to maintain Upper House majority. Current projections suggest this target remains challenging across all major outlets.
Recent polling suggests maximum coalition gains barely exceed 50 seats, optimistically. LDP projections range from 24-40 seats across major newspaper forecasts. Komeito faces potential historic lows with 6-13 projected seats maximum.
Opposition Victory Implications
Under the current system, crypto tax reaches 55% maximum rate under the miscellaneous income classification. The opposition Democratic Party for the People proposes a 20% separate tax system.
Victory could accelerate comprehensive crypto tax reform nationwide. Proposed changes include token-to-token transaction tax elimination and loss carryover provisions.
Lower barriers might trigger domestic investment capital re-influx into Bitcoin markets. Furthermore, institutional participation could increase through ETF approvals and regulatory clarity.
Ruling Coalition Continuity
The ruling coalition’s victory would likely limit tax reform to incremental changes. Historically, the Ministry of Finance, the coalition’s long-time ally, resists broad-based tax reduction measures.
Consequently, Bitcoin investment demand would remain constrained under existing high-tax frameworks.
Raydium is releasing LaunchLab, a new token launchpad to compete with Pump.fun. The exchange announced this platform last month, and its full release has sparked community enthusiasm.
Pump.fun and Raydium have been locked in an intense competition in the Solana ecosystem. Last month, Pump.fun launched its own decentralized exchange, and now Raydium has introduced its own launchpad.
Raydium Increases Solana Dominance with new Launchpad
Raydium, Solana’s largest decentralized exchange, has the opportunity to make some serious gains in the near future. Solana meme coins are eyeing a comeback with heightened trade volumes and rising token prices, and the firm is releasing a long-awaited project.
Although it will compete with Pump.fun, Raydium’s launchpad services look more extensive. They will allow all kinds of tokens to be launched, not just meme coins, and these tokens can be directly traded on the exchange.
“Introducing LaunchLab, Raydium’s all-in-one token launchpad. Built for creators, developers, and the community. Get started with JustSendIt mode: launch a token, hit 85 SOL, [and] liquidity migrates to Raydium’s AMM INSTANTLY. Seamless, on-chain token creation. No migration fee. No gatekeepers,” the firm claimed in its launch announcement.
Last month, however, this same asset soared when Raydium first announced Launchpad. Pump.fun entered the DEX sector, and Raydium is enabling users to launch their own meme coins.
Since this launch announcement took place, RAY spiked around 10%, signifying the community’s enthusiasm.
There may be another explanation for this token rally in addition to community hype. Raydium also mentioned that all of Launchpad’s trading fees will go towards ecosystem development.
More specifically, 25% of these fees will directly fund buybacks of RAY tokens, while the other 75% go towards a Community Pool and Program fee.
These other funds can enable a few generous user incentives. Raydium claimed that Launchpad token creators can earn up to 10% of trading fees from the AMM pool post-graduation, and users can also receive SOL tokens from referring new clients. Token creators will also enjoy several other quality-of-life features.
According to data from StakingRewards, Solana (SOL) has overtaken Ethereum (ETH) in staking market capitalization, reaching $53.15 billion compared to Ethereum’s $53.72 billion.
This milestone has sparked heated discussions across the social media platform X, raising the question: Is this a turning point for Solana, or merely a short-lived surge?
Solana Outpaces Ethereum As High Staking Yields Prove Appealing
Recent data reveals that 64.86% of Solana‘s total supply is currently staked, delivering an impressive annual percentage yield (APY) of 8.31%. In contrast, Ethereum has only 28.18% of its supply staked, with an APY of 2.98%.
Staking rewards for Solana and Ethereum. Source: StakingRewards
This disparity highlights Solana’s growing appeal for investors seeking passive income through staking. Staking market capitalization is calculated by multiplying the total number of staked tokens by their current price. With SOL priced at $138.91 as of this writing, Solana has officially surpassed Ethereum in this metric.
However, Solana’s high staking ratio has sparked some controversy. Critics, such as Dankrad Feist on X, argue that Solana’s lack of a slashing mechanism (or penalties for validator violations) undermines the economic security of its staking model. With its slashing mechanism, Ethereum offers greater security, despite its lower staking ratio.
“It’s very ironic to call it ‘staking’ when there is no slashing. What’s at stake? Solana has close to zero economic security at the moment,” Dankrad Feist shared.
Increased Whale Activity Signals Caution
Meanwhile, recent moves by “whales” (large investors) have further fueled interest in Solana. On April 20, 2025, a whale unstaked 37,803 SOL (worth $5.26 million). Similarly, Galaxy Digitalwithdrew 606,000 SOL from exchanges over four days (April 15–19, 2025), concluding with 462,000 SOL.
Additionally, on April 17, 2025, a newly created wallet withdrew approximately $5.15 million worth of SOL from the Binance exchange. In the same tone, Binance whales withdrew over 370,000 SOL tokens valued at $52.78 million.
While some whales withdrew their SOL holdings, other large holders accumulated. Janover, a US-listed company, increased its Solana holdings to 163,651.7 SOL (worth $21.2 million) and partnered with Kraken exchange for staking on April 16, 2025.
These actions signal diverging plays from institutional investors and whales, as the Solana price fluctuates around key levels.
SOL Price Analysis: Opportunities and Challenges
As of this writing, SOL was trading at $140.49, up 3.53% in the past 24 hours. Analysts highlight $129 as crucial support for the Solana price, with $144 presenting the key roadblock to overcome before Solana’s upside potential can be realized. Breaking above the aforementioned roadblock could propel SOL toward new highs.
The most important support for SOL is at $129. Source: Ali/X
Conversely, dropping below the $129 support level could trigger increased selling pressure. Nevertheless, SOL has shown a remarkable recovery, with a 14.34% increase over the past week.
Another factor to consider is the ongoing development of the Solana ecosystem. Key innovations include the QUIC data transfer protocol, the combination of Proof-of-History (PoH) and Proof-of-Stake (PoS), and the diversification of validator clients.
With these, Solana continues to enhance its performance and decentralization. Additionally, the launch of the Solang compiler, compatible with Ethereum’s Solidity, has attracted developers from the Ethereum ecosystem.
BeInCrypto also reported on Solana’s upcoming community conference, otherwise termed Solana Breakpoint. Key announcements from this event could provide further tailwinds for the SOL price.
Nevertheless, despite surpassing Ethereum in staking market capitalization, Solana faces significant challenges. Ethereum benefits from a more mature DeFi ecosystem, greater institutional trust, and enhanced security through its slashing mechanism.
To some, Ethereum’s lower staking ratio (28%) may be a deliberate strategy to reduce network pressure and ensure liquidity for DeFi applications.
In contrast, Solana’s high staking ratio (65%) could limit liquidity within its DeFi ecosystem. This raises the question of whether Solana can strike a balance between staking and the growth of its decentralized applications.
As Solana continues challenging Ethereum’s dominance, the crypto community remains divided. Is Solana’s rise a sustainable breakthrough, or just another wave of hype?
Critical Threshold
