HBAR noted a 20% rally during Wednesday’s intraday trading session. This double-digit gain was fueled by Nasdaq’s filing of a 19b-4 form with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to list and trade Grayscale’s spot HBAR exchange-traded fund (ETF).
However, the rally appears to be losing momentum. Market indicators suggest that bearish sentiment is strengthening, putting HBAR at risk of losing recent gains.
HBAR Faces Downward Pressure as Market Sentiment Turns Bearish
HBAR’s negative Balance of Power (BoP) reading indicates weakening buying pressure among its spot market participants. At press time, this indicator, which compares the strength of an asset’s bulls and bears, is below zero at -0.09.
When an asset’s BoP is negative, its sellers exert more control over price action. This suggests weakening buying pressure in the HBAR market and hints at a potential continuation of the bearish momentum.
Moreover, HBAR’s Long/Short ratio indicates an increasing dominance of short positions, confirming the bearish sentiment among its futures traders. As of this writing, this stands at 0.98.
The Long/Short ratio measures the proportion of long positions (bets on price increases) to short positions (bets on price declines) in the market. When the ratio is below 1, it indicates that short positions outnumber long positions. It highlights the bearish sentiment among HBAR holders and increases the downward pressure on its price.
HBAR’s Fate Hangs in the Balance
HBAR exchanges hands at $0.24 at press time. On the daily chart, it trades above support formed at $0.22. If bearish pressure gains momentum, this level may fail to hold. HBAR’s price could decline further to $0.17 if the bulls cannot defend this support level.
Conversely, a positive shift in market sentiment could prevent this. If new demand trickles into the market, HBAR’s price could breach resistance at $0.26 and rally toward $0.31.
Bitcoin (BTC) is facing a mix of bullish signals and short-term uncertainty. Moody’s recent downgrade of the US credit rating has heightened long-term bullish sentiment around BTC, reinforcing its role as a hedge against rising debt and fiscal uncertainty.
Meanwhile, on-chain data shows a declining supply of Bitcoin on exchanges, suggesting investors are leaning toward holding rather than selling. Despite these bullish fundamentals, BTC remains in a short-term consolidation phase, with price action needing fresh momentum to break higher.
Moody’s Downgrade Ends US Century-Long Perfect Credit Rating Streak
Moody’s has downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, removing the country’s last perfect score among major credit agencies.
It’s the first time in over a century that the US lacks a top-tier rating from all three, following downgrades by S&P in 2011 and Fitch in 2023. Rising deficits, mounting interest costs, and the absence of credible fiscal reforms drove the decision.
Markets reacted quickly—Treasury yields climbed, and equity futures slipped. The White House dismissed the downgrade as politically driven, with lawmakers still negotiating a $3.8 trillion tax and spending package.
Moody’s also warned that extending Trump-era tax cuts could deepen deficits, pushing them toward 9% of GDP by 2035—a scenario that may strengthen the appeal of crypto, especially Bitcoin, as a hedge against long-term fiscal instability.
After briefly rising from 1.42 million to 1.43 million between May 2 and May 7, Bitcoin’s supply on exchanges is falling once again.
This short uptick followed a more significant decline between April 17 and May 2, when the exchange supply dropped from 1.47 million to 1.42 million. Now, the metric has resumed its downward trend, currently sitting at 1.41 million BTC.
The supply of Bitcoin on exchanges is a key market indicator. When more BTC is held on exchanges, it often signals potential selling pressure, which can be bearish.
Conversely, a decline in exchange balances suggests holders are moving their coins to cold storage, reducing near-term sell pressure—a bullish signal. The current drop reinforces the idea that investors may be preparing to hold rather than sell.
The Ichimoku Cloud chart for Bitcoin shows a period of consolidation with neutral-to-slightly-bearish signals. The price is currently sitting right around the flat Kijun-sen (red line), indicating a lack of strong momentum in either direction.
The Tenkan-sen (blue line) is also flat and closely tracking the price, reinforcing this sideways movement and short-term indecision.
The Senkou Span A and B lines (which form the green cloud) are also relatively flat, suggesting equilibrium in the market. The price is moving near the top edge of the cloud, which typically acts as support. However, since the cloud is not expanding and has a flat structure, there is no strong trend confirmation at the moment.
The Chikou Span (green lagging line) is slightly above the price candles, hinting at mild bullish bias, but overall, the chart signals indecision and the need for a breakout to confirm the next direction.
Moody’s Downgrade Strengthens Bitcoin’s Long-Term Bull Case Amid Short-Term Consolidation
While it may not trigger immediate price action, the downgrade reinforces the narrative of growing fiscal instability and debt concerns—conditions that strengthen Bitcoin’s appeal as a decentralized, hard-capped asset.
In the medium to long term, more investors may turn to BTC as a hedge against sovereign risk and weakening trust in traditional financial systems.
In the short term, however, Bitcoin price remains in a consolidation phase after breaking above $100,000. Its EMA lines are still bullish, with shorter-term averages above longer-term ones, but they are flattening out.
For bullish momentum to resume, BTC would need to push past the $105,755 resistance.
On the downside, holding above the $100,694 support is crucial—losing it could open the door for declines toward $98,002 and potentially $93,422.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has charged Ramil Palafox, a dual US-Philippine national, with orchestrating a $198 million crypto scam.
From January 2020 to October 2021, Palafox ran a Ponzi-style scheme through his company, PGI Global, defrauding many investors.
SEC Cracks Down on Massive Crypto Scam
According to the press release, the regulator claims that Palafox raised about $198 million from investors globally. He promised them substantial returns from crypto and foreign exchange trading.
“As alleged in our complaint, Palafox attracted investors with the allure of guaranteed profits from sophisticated crypto asset and foreign exchange trading, but instead of trading, Palafox bought himself and his family cars, watches, and homes using millions of dollars of investor funds,” Associate Director of the SEC’s Philadelphia Regional Office Scott Thompson stated.
Furthermore, the company operated with a multi-level marketing (MLM) structure. Palafox attracted investors by claiming expertise in the crypto sector and offering an artificial intelligence (AI)-driven trading platform. Yet, both of these claims provedto be fraudulent.
The scheme eventually collapsed in 2021, resulting in significant financial losses for investors.
“The SEC’s complaint, filed in the US District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia, charges Palafox with violating the anti-fraud and registration provisions of the federal securities laws,” the press release detailed.
The SEC demands that Palafox return ill-gotten gains and pay civil penalties. The regulator has also asked for a permanent injunction to prevent Palafox from engaging in similar activities in the future. Additionally, the US Attorney’s Office has filed criminal charges.
Iranian National Charged for Running Dark Web Marketplace
Meanwhile, in a separate case, a federal jury indicted Iranian national Behrouz Parsarad for founding and operating a dark web marketplace. According to the US Office of Public Affairs, the Nemesis market facilitated the illegal sale of drugs, including fentanyl and other controlled substances. The marketplace was also involved in criminal activities like stealing financial data and distributing malware.
Bitcoin’s supply in profit has continued to rise steadily despite recent setbacks and persistent market headwinds.
On-chain data shows that over 85% of BTC’s circulating supply is currently in profit. This is a historically bullish signal but often marks the beginning of euphoric phases in market cycles.
BTC Enters Bullish Territory, but Analysts Warn of Possible Pullback
BTC’s supply in profit measures the percentage of coin holders who acquired their assets at prices lower than the current market value. When this number rises, it indicates broad investor confidence and strong capital inflows into the asset.
In a new report, pseudonymous CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost found that more than 85% of BTC’s circulating supply is currently held in profit. Although this trend represents a bullish signal, it comes with a catch.
“Having a large portion of the supply in profit is not a bad thing, quite the opposite. Of course, there are certain levels that are more “comfortable” than others, but generally, an increase in the supply in profit tends to fuel bullish phases,” Darkfost wrote.
According to the analyst’s note, the market is now entering the euphoric zone, a phase that emerges when the profit supply approaches or exceeds 90%. These levels, while bullish, have often coincided with local market tops as traders begin to lock in profits, triggering short- to medium-term corrections.
“Historically, when the supply in profit surpassed the 90% threshold, it consistently triggered euphoric phases, and we are now approaching that level. However, these euphoric phases can be short-lived and are often followed by short- to medium-term corrections.”
Funding Rate Signals Market in Wait-and-See Mode
Interestingly, BTC’s funding rate remains relatively balanced, indicating that the market is in a state of anticipation. At press time, the coin’s funding rate is 0%.
The funding rate is a periodic payment between traders in perpetual futures markets, used to keep contract prices aligned with the spot market. As with BTC, when an asset’s funding rate is 0%, it indicates a neutral market sentiment, where neither long nor short positions dominate.
This signals that BTC investors are waiting for a catalyst to provide clearer direction. This neutral market sentiment and rising profit supply set the stage for potential price volatility in the near term.
Bitcoin Holds Firm Below Resistance
At press time, the king coin trades at $95,125, resting below a major resistance level of $95,971. Despite recent market volatility, BTC demand among spot market participants remains significant, as reflected by its Relative Strength Index (RSI), which currently stands at 68.21.
The RSI indicator measures an asset’s overbought and oversold market conditions. It ranges between 0 and 100, with values above 70 suggesting that the asset is overbought and due for a price decline. Converesly, values under 30 indicate that the asset is oversold and may witness a rebound.
BTC’s RSI reading indicates room for further price growth before the coin becomes overbought. If demand strengthens, the coin could break above the $95,971 resistance and rally to $98,983.
