Sometimes the difference between security and compromise comes down to a single click – and a healthy dose of suspicion. And it’s because scammers are getting increasingly sophisticated with their phishing attempts. It’s to the point where even following standard security best practices isn’t enough to protect you. Case in point: last week’s near-successful phishing attack on Zach Latta.
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Fed Rate Cut Odds Collapse to 15% After Trump’s Tariff Pause
According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in May has plunged from 57% to just 15%. This is due to President Trump’s 90-day tariff pause and newly released March FOMC minutes.
The March 18–19 FOMC minutes, released Tuesday, confirm that policymakers remain cautious on easing.
FOMC Minutes Reveal Hawkish Caution
While the Fed acknowledged solid economic growth and stable labor markets, officials noted that inflation is still running above the 2% target.
Many participants emphasized upside risks to inflation, particularly from broad-based tariff increases and potential supply chain disruptions.
Several Fed members observed that inflation prints for January and February came in higher than expected, and warned that the effects of new tariffs — particularly on core goods — may prove more persistent than anticipated.
Although participants supported maintaining current interest rates, they stressed that policy flexibility is essential as uncertainty surrounding trade, fiscal, and immigration policy clouds the outlook.
As of now, Trump’s decision to pause new tariffs for most countries for 90 days while raising Chinese tariffs to 125% has reduced fears of a full-blown trade war.
However, retaliatory action from China and elevated inflation expectations reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance. So, policymakers are signaling they are in no rush to cut rates.
What It Means for Crypto
As we have seen lately, crypto markets are macro-sensitive assets. A more hawkish Fed stance and reduced odds of near-term rate cuts could lead to:
- Lower liquidity expectations, weighing on crypto asset prices.
- Stronger dollar pressure, potentially reducing Bitcoin’s appeal as an inflation hedge.
- Higher volatility, as macro uncertainty intensifies and rate cut hopes fade.
For now, the Fed’s message is clear: monetary policy remains data-dependent, but a pivot is off the table unless economic conditions deteriorate sharply.
The market is currently rallying after Trump’s 90-day Tariff pause. However, Crypto investors hoping for tailwinds from rate cuts may have to wait.
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Altcoin Season Remains Elusive as Market Struggles Amid Trump’s Trade Wars
At the start of 2025, several altcoins surged to new all-time highs. Others climbed to multi-month peaks, riding the wave of the Donald Trump-fueled rally that swept through the crypto market.
However, Trump’s escalating trade wars and broader macroeconomic unrest have led to a significant downturn in many altcoins, raising questions about the timing of the next altcoin season.
Altcoin Season Slips Further Away
Altcoin season refers to a market cycle in which crypto assets other than Bitcoin significantly outperform BTC in terms of price gains. Many altcoins witness significant price surges during this period, often due to increased investor speculation, capital rotation from BTC into other crypto assets, and bullish sentiment in the market.
This cycle commences when at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform BTC over a three-month period. However, this is far from the reality. The Altcoin Index, which tracks this trend, has plunged to its lowest level since October 2024, signaling continued weakness in the sector.
As of this writing, only 24% of top altcoins have outperformed leading crypto Bitcoin over the past 90 days, highlighting its dominance in the current market cycle. This persistent underperformance suggests that an altcoin season may still be far off.
Further reinforcing this bearish outlook, TOTAL2, the metric tracking the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding BTC, has remained in a descending parallel channel since the beginning of the year.
This pattern signals a sustained downtrend. It is formed when an asset’s price moves between two downward-sloping parallel trendlines, with lower highs and lower lows over time. As of this writing, TOTAL2 is at $1.14 trillion, plummeting by 17% since January 1.
This decline confirms the lack of strong bullish momentum across the altcoin market, hinting at zero likelihood of an altcoin season kicking off anytime soon.
Bitcoin Dominance Climbs as Market Pullback Deepens
While the market has witnessed a significant pullback recently amid Trump’s trade wars, Bitcoin dominance has continued to increase. An assessment of Bitcoin’s dominance (BTC.D) on a daily chart confirms the same.
This metric, which measures the percentage of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization that Bitcoin holds, has remained above an ascending trend line since last December. As of this writing, it sits at 61.29%.
If BTC’s dominance remains elevated, it could further delay the prospects of an altcoin season.
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Former JP Morgan Exec and Crypto Casino Founder Charged With Securities Fraud
Richard Kim, founder of Zero Edge, a defunct “crypto casino,” was arrested and subsequently released on bail in a federal securities fraud case. After an arrest on Tuesday, Kim posted a $250,000 bond using $100,000 in cash as collateral.
Before Zero Edge, Kim had an esteemed career at major institutes like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs. The Southern District of New York (SDNY) is hearing this case.
How Richard Kim’s Crypto Casino Collapsed
Before everything fell apart, Richard Kim was ostensibly a successful crypto entrepreneur. A former executive at Galaxy Digital, an attorney, and an elite trader, he left in March 2024 to found Zero Edge.
This “crypto casino” would bring classical gambling onto the blockchain, according to a recent court document:
“In particular, Kim represented to prospective investors that Zero Edge would ‘develop a number of onchain games,’ beginning with craps, and operate both a ‘free to play / social casino version of the game’ in which players could win virtual currency, as well as a real money version of the game. KIM wrote that he would serve as the ‘chief architect’ of the company,” it read.
Kim leveraged his former connections, including those at Galaxy, to raise over $7 million in seed funding. However, Kim’s casino never opened.
According to his public statements, Kim initially lost $80,000 to a phishing scam and blew through $3.8 million by chasing losses in “high-risk leveraged crypto trades.” This happened within a week of his initial funding round.
From there, he misled investors for months before finally coming clean last June, describing himself as a gambling addict. Several of the casino’s investors, including Galaxy, filed complaints that progressed to federal charges this week.
The FBI arrested Kim on charges of wire fraud and securities fraud, and he is being tried in the Southern District of New York (SDNY).
In the grand scheme of things, Kim’s aborted attempt to open a digital casino is on the smaller end of crypto crimes. Nonetheless, it’s important that the federal government actually seeks to prosecute him.
For example, the Department of Justice recently shut down its Crypto Enforcement Team and stopped investigating tumblers and exchanges. “Crime is legal now” is a growing refrain in the community, as regulators are halting all enforcement.
Even the SDNY, which is handling Kim’s casino case, claimed it would end crypto prosecutions.
This may be a small win for justice, but fresh crypto cases are being tried. Kim is currently out on bail, but he still faces repercussions for his failed casino. Whatever happens, its results will be an important data point for US crypto enforcement.
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