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As Bitcoin flirts with the key psychological threshold of $100,000, derivatives traders are closely watching for signals that could mark the final leg up—and are already positioning for what may follow.
Derivatives experts Gordon Grant and Joshua Lim told BeInCrypto that Bitcoin’s move past $100,000 now reflects a long-term holding strategy, unlike the speculative trading seen when it first crossed that threshold after Trump’s election victory.
Bitcoin Nears $100K: A Different Kind of Ascent?
At the time of press, Bitcoin’s price hovers just below $98,000. As it grows, traders anxiously watch for it to surpass the $100,000 threshold. When it does, it will be the second time in crypto history that this will happen.
According to Cryptocurrency Derivatives Trader Gordon Grant, the current move toward six figures lacks the euphoric energy of past rallies, such as the one after Trump won the US general election last November. However, that may be a good thing.
“This current bounce back feels much more of a low-key, lethargic reclamation of those highs,” Grant told BeInCrypto, referencing Bitcoin’s recovery from lows around $75,000 in early April. “The positioning rinsedown through all key moving averages… was a proper washout.”
He added that this washout, a sharp move lower that flushed out weak hands, cleared the decks for a healthier rebound. A “high-velocity bounce” followed, as Grant phrased it.
“[It] has since responsibly slowed down at the $95,000 pivot—a level at which Bitcoin has been centered, +/- 15%, for over five months now,” he added.
“Current complacency among vol sellers in fading the technical threshold at $100K is markedly different,” he said.
Grant added that, back in December, volatility spiked on expectations of a rapid moonshot toward $130,000–$150,000. Now, however, implied volatility has actually fallen by around 10 points during the final 10% of Bitcoin’s climb—an unusual dynamic that has punished traders holding out-of-the-money options who were betting on big price swings.
This time, the substantial loss of market optimism also contributes to the situation.
The Rise of Institutional Buyers
Market sentiment has shifted significantly since January. The excitement seen during Trump’s election has been replaced by uncertainty. According to Grant, souring macro conditions such as tariff-driven equity selloffs and growing caution among traders have contributed to this mood shift across markets.
“Whereas BTC on first launch to/through $100K was accompanied by euphoria about presidential policies… the re-approach has been marred by malaise,” Grant explained.
In short, the motivation to buy may now be driven more by fear than greed.
Joshua Lim, Global Co-Head of Markets at FalconX, agreed with this analysis, highlighting a notable shift in the primary source of Bitcoin demand.
“The dominant narrative is more around Microstrategy-type equities accumulating Bitcoin, that’s more consistent buyers than the retail swing traders,” Lim told BeInCrypto.
In other words, more speculative retail buying might have fueled earlier enthusiasm around Bitcoin’s price hitting $100,000. This time, the more consistent and significant buying is coming from large companies adopting a long-term Bitcoin holding strategy, similar to the one adopted by Michael Saylor’s Strategy.
The recent formation of 21 Capital, backed by mega companies like Tether and Softbank, further confirms this shift in motivation.
Consistent institutional buying can also sustain an increase in Bitcoin’s price over time.
Why Are Institutions Increasingly Bullish on Bitcoin?
With growing momentum from sovereign players and corporate treasuries, institutional buying may be critical in sustaining Bitcoin’s next upward trajectory.
Grant highlighted that developing countries seeking to move away from a weakening dollar and towards a more independent asset like Bitcoin could play a significant role. If this were to happen, it’d signify a potentially tectonic shift to global monetary policy.
“The Global South, tiring of wonky and inconstant dollar policies, may be truly thinking about dumping dollars for BTC,” Grant explained, clarifying, “That’s a reserve manager decision, not a spec/leverage position.”
Increased institutional adoption strengthens the idea that Bitcoin now serves as a way to reduce risk against issues pertinent to financial systems, like inflation or currency devaluation.
“The proliferation of SMLR, 21Cap, and many others, including NVDA deciding they need to derisk their balance sheets by rerisking on BTC—even as it approaches the top decile of all-time prices,” Grant pointed to as evidence.
Simply put, even large institutions are choosing to take on the risk of Bitcoin’s price fluctuations as a potential offset to other, potentially larger financial risks.
Despite the excitement surrounding Bitcoin’s approach to $100,000, the true anticipation centers on its continuing development as an increasingly permanent component of the financial system.
After a mildly bearish week, the coming weekend is expected to be a turning point for the crypto market. This is if the Trump-Musk feud comes to a halt, which is unlikely given their tenacity to have the final word.
BeInCrypto has identified three altcoins to watch this weekend and the direction in which they will be taking over the next two days.
1Inch Network (1INCH)
1INCH price is expected to rise in the next two days as the protocol undergoes a significant upgrade. The 1IP-78 update will introduce key improvements aimed at boosting the adoption and usage of the 1inch Protocol. This upgrade could be a catalyst for positive price movement in the short term.
Despite being down 6% in the last 24 hours, trading at $0.1982, 1INCH shows signs of recovery. The Ichimoku Cloud indicates persistent bullish momentum, which could help push the price above the crucial support level of $0.2092. This support level will be key in determining the price direction.
If bearish market conditions continue, 1INCH may experience further losses. A drop below $0.2092 could send the altcoin toward $0.1886 or even lower to $0.1793. A decline to these levels would invalidate the bullish outlook and could result in a prolonged downward trend for 1INCH.
Hyperliquid (HYPE)
HYPE has been one of the best-performing tokens this week, with an 8% increase. This strong momentum is expected to continue into the weekend, potentially pushing the price above $36.47. If this trend holds, HYPE could see further upward movement, making it one to watch closely.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator shows that despite some outflows, it remains above the zero line. This suggests that there is still buying pressure in the market, which could drive HYPE closer to its all-time high (ATH) of $42.25. The coin is currently 23.8% away from reaching this level.
If outflows intensify and market sentiment weakens, HYPE could experience a decline. A drop below the support level of $31.26 would signal further weakness, potentially leading to a fall to $27.31. Such a scenario would invalidate the current bullish outlook and shift the market sentiment towards bearish.
Quant (QNT)
QNT has performed well this week, showing strong bullish signals similar to HYPE. The Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which recently formed a Golden Cross, continue to expand. This pattern indicates sustained bullish momentum, suggesting that QNT could see further price increases in the near term.
The upward momentum could help QNT bounce off the $110 support level, with a potential rise to $121. If the price breaks above this resistance, it would open the door for a move toward $126. This positive price action indicates that QNT is likely to maintain its bullish trend for now.
However, if the price fails to breach $121, QNT may continue to consolidate under this level. If the $110 support is lost, the altcoin could experience a sharp decline to $101, invalidating the current bullish outlook and signaling a shift toward bearish market conditions.
XRP’s recent rally toward the $3 mark has been primarily driven by intense trading activity in South Korea. Available data shows that Upbit, the country’s leading exchange, played a central role in this surge.
On July 12, crypto analyst Dom highlighted that net buy pressure of 45 million XRP on the spot markets fueled the price movement from $2.60 to $3.00.
Upbit Drives XRP Spike as Retail Fervor Grips South Korea
According to him, 70% of this volume came from Upbit alone, which accounted for 32 million XRP. Other exchanges, including Coinbase (11%), Kraken (9%), and Bitstamp (6%), played smaller roles in the rally.
In contrast, Binance, usually a key player in spot market movements, registered a negative net volume, underscoring the concentrated nature of this rally in the South Korean market.
Data from CoinGecko aligns with this observation, showing that XRP trading volume on Upbit hit nearly $500 million within the last 24 hours. This surpasses the combined trading volume of both Bitcoin and Ethereum on the platform.
This level of activity underscores the growing dominance of Korean retail participants in driving price momentum for altcoins like XRP.
Notably, South Korean traders have previously driven euphoric rallies in cryptocurrency markets.
According to Bloomberg, over 7 million South Koreans—around 15% of the population—are now registered on local exchanges.
Many of these traders, having missed out on Bitcoin’s early growth, have turned to altcoins like XRP, which now represents a significant portion of South Korea’s crypto trading volume.
Some in the crypto community have expressed concerns about the sustainability of retail-driven price movements.
However, Dom suggests that such dynamics reflect the evolving nature of regional markets.
“They really only have a big impact on XRP. And yeah, I wouldn’t necessarily say it’s good. But I wouldn’t say it’s bad. It’s just a market and one market may have much more interest at one point then another market,” Dom explained.
Moreover, speculation continues to swirl about the possibility of a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF). This potential development could further solidify the token’s presence in traditional financial markets.
Additionally, the legal battle between Ripple Labs and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) appears to be nearing an end.