President Trump is moving quickly to replace two key economic positions, backing a pro-rate-cut agenda. With the chances of a September rate cut nearing 80%, markets are reacting—crypto has surged, adding to the growing momentum.
Trump Eyes Fed, BLS Shake-Up After Sudden Exits
Two major vacancies opened Friday, one at the Federal Reserve after Governor Adriana Kugler’s unexpected resignation, and the other at the Bureau of Labor Statistics after the President fired Commissioner Erika McEntarfer.
McEntarfer was fired shortly after a weak jobs report in July, and the President accused her of manipulating job numbers.
JUST IN: President Trump is naming a REPLACEMENT Labor Statistics Commissioner after he fired the Biden holdover, who severely down-revised the jobs report, in the next 3-4 days.
“We had NO confidence. The numbers were ridiculous, what she announced.”
In a Truth Social Post today, Trump slammed last week’s jobs report as “rigged,” claiming it was manipulated to favor Democrats, just like pre-election data. He pointed to record job revisions as proof and vowed to appoint an “exceptional” replacement.
Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler’s term was set to end in January. In her letter to the President, she gave no explanation for stepping down. Her departure takes effect August 8. Trump is weighing several candidates for the Fed role and plans to announce his pick soon. “I have a couple of people in mind,” he said.
Fed Shake-Up Gives Trump New Leverage
Kugler’s resignation gives Trump a key opening to remake the Federal Reserve. During her tenure, she has backed Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who Trump often criticizes.
According to a report from Bloomberg, contenders to fill the Fed vacancy, and potentially succeed Jerome Powell as chair when his term ends in May, include Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent, and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller.
After the Fed held rates steady for the fifth time, Trump ripped into Chair Jerome Powell on Truth Social, calling him a “stubborn moron” and urged the Fed Board to take control if he won’t cut rates. He has long accused Powell of being too slow and hurting the economy with high rates.
Rate Cut Chances Cross 80%
However, the chances of a September rate cut have climbed to over 80%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Additionally, if Trump appoints a pro-rate-cut Fed governor, it could further push the Fed toward easing at the next FOMC meeting, that could boost crypto prices.
Crypto Market Rallies
The crypto market has climbed to a $3.83 trillion market cap, up 1.7% in the last 24 hours. Bitcoin is up over 1%, while Ethereum, XRP, and Cardano have jumped 3–5%, adding to the bullish momentum.
Fueling the rally further is a breakthrough in the U.S.–E.U. trade deal, with the European Union proposing a six-month pause on its countermeasures, which has boosted investor confidence across markets, including crypto.
Over the past few months, Ethereum has experienced a significant decline in user activity on its blockchain. This slowdown has reduced the network’s burn rate—a mechanism that helps decrease ETH supply over time.
With fewer tokens being burned, ETH’s circulating supply has risen, putting inflationary pressure on the asset. As a result, the coin has struggled to maintain a stable price above the $2,000 level in recent months.
Low Burn Rate Equals More Coins in Circulation
According to Ultrasoundmoney, 72,927 ETH, valued at $134 million at current market prices, have been added to ETH’s circulating supply in the past month alone.
At press time, this sits at 120,730,199 ETH, significantly above pre-merge levels.
This increase in ETH’s supply is driven by a decline in user activity on the Ethereum network, reducing its burn rate. Ethereum’s burn mechanism, introduced through EIP-1559, destroys a portion of transaction fees to reduce the circulating supply of ETH.
However, this mechanism is directly tied to network usage. So, when fewer transactions occur like this, less ETH is burned, resulting in ETH’s supply spiking.
According to Etherscan, the daily amount of ETH burnt has dropped by 95% year-to-date. In fact, the network recently recorded its lowest amount of coins burnt in a single day on April 20.
Many users and developers are migrating from Ethereum to Layer-2 (L2) solutions like Optimism and Arbitrum. These networks offer significantly lower transaction fees and faster execution, reducing user activity on Ethereum’s mainnet.
For example, as of April 30, the average transaction fee on Optimism’s mainnet was just $0.024. By contrast, completing a transaction directly on Ethereum cost users an average of $0.18 on the same day, which is over seven times more expensive.
Optimism Average Transaction Fee. Source: Dune Analytics
Moreover, thanks to the recent meme coin mania, “Ethereum killers,” such as Solana, have gained significant traction over the past few months, drawing users away from the L1.
Together, these trends have led to a decline in Ethereum’s transaction count, hence the network’s low burn rate.
How Do Ethereum’s Fundamentals Stack Up?
The drop in Ethereum’s user demand and the subsequent rise in ETH’s supply have raised important questions about the strength of its fundamentals.
When asked how Ethereum currently compares to other Layer-1 (L1) networks amid broader market weakness, Vincent Liu, Chief Investment Officer at Kronos Research, offered his perspective.
“Ethereum’s fundamentals remain strong relative to other Layer 1s, particularly when you consider its total value locked (TVL) of $368.921 billion, which positions it at the top of the leaderboard,” Liu said.
Although Liu acknowledged that Ethereum ranks fifth in 24-hour fees, behind Tron, Solana, HyperLiquid, Bitcoin, and BNB Chain. He emphasized that the network still “demonstrates significant demand and usage.”
Temujin Louie, CEO of Wanchain, shares a similar perspective. While speaking with BeInCrypto, Louie noted:
“Compared to other Layer 1s, fundamentals remain Ethereum’s strength. Unlike many Layer 1s with aggressive inflation as part of their design, Ethereum’s post-merge architecture makes it potentially deflationary. However, the benefits of EIP-1559 depend on on-chain activity. Nevertheless, this is a structural advantage over most competing Layer 1s.”
While increased activity across Layer-2 (L2) solutions and “Ethereum killers” like Solana may have contributed to a decline in user demand on Ethereum itself, Louie believes that the L1 network “remains a leader in decentralization and has a near-unmatched track record that continues to secure its place in the market.”
What About ETH Price?
Even with strong fundamentals, declining activity on Ethereum poses challenges for ETH in the short- to mid-term. Commenting on this, Liu explained that lower network activity generally signals weaker demand for ETH.
At the same time, increased coin issuance on the network undermines Ethereum’s deflationary model, which was designed to support price appreciation.
“This combination could result in bearish price movements,” Liu warned, “especially as investors look to alternative Layer 1s offering better scalability and lower fees.”
Kadan Stadelmann, CTO of Komodo Platform, also highlighted the role of macroeconomic factors:
“If Ethereum experiences an extended decrease in usage, the price could fall considerably depending on how much use drops, especially if the Fed continues its policy of quantitative tightening compared to quantitative easing. Short-term, this could mean price drops down to the $2,000 range. If the trend continues, however, then Ethereum could find itself in a prolonged consolidation period or outright downtrend.”
ETH Eyes $2,000 Breakout Amid Strengthening RSI
ETH currently trades at $1,834, noting a 1% price dip over the past day. Despite the brief pullback, the bullish pressure in the coin’s spot markets continues to strengthen, reflected by the coin’s climbing Relative Strength Index (RSI).
At press time, this momentum indicator is at 57.68. ETH’s RSI readings signal growing bullish conditions. This indicates that the altcoin has room for upward movement if buying pressure increases.
In this scenario, its price could break above $2,027.
Dogecoin holders have been withdrawing their funds from spot markets in April, with the leading meme coin facing mounting selling pressure.
The lack of new capital flowing into DOGE reflects a decline in investor confidence and adds downward pressure on the altcoin.
Sell-Off Worsens for DOGE as Outflows Outpace Inflows
Since the beginning of April, DOGE has seen a consistent stream of net outflows from its spot market, totaling over $120 million. Net inflows during the same period have been negligible, amounting to less than $5 million per Coinglass.
When an asset records spot outflows, more of its coins or tokens are being sold or withdrawn from the spot market than are being bought or deposited.
This indicates that DOGE investors are losing confidence and opting to liquidate their holdings due to increasingly bearish market conditions.
The persistent outflows from the meme coin over the past two weeks reflect the lack of new demand for the altcoin. If this trend continues, DOGE’s price could remain range-bound or face another decline cycle.
On the technical front, DOGE’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has continued to trend downward on the daily chart, further confirming the bearish outlook.
At press time, this key momentum indicator, which measures an asset’s oversold and overbought market conditions, is below the 50-neutral line at 47.61.
DOGE RSI. Source: TradingView
When an asset’s RSI falls below the center line, bearish momentum strengthens. This suggests that DOGE selling pressure is beginning to outweigh buying interest, signaling a potential dip in the asset’s price.
DOGE Risks Retesting Yearly Lows
With the crypto market’s volatility heightened by Donald Trump’s ongoing trade wars and DOGE’s current struggles to attract fresh investment, the meme coin may test new lows in the near term. If selling pressure strengthens, DOGE could revisit its year-to-date low of $0.12.
DOGE Price Analysis. Source: TradingView
Conversely, a resurgence in new demand for the meme coin will invalidate this bearish outlook. In that scenario, DOGE’s price could break above $0.17 and climb to $0.20.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has launched a Crypto Sprint to allow spot crypto trading on futures exchanges. The aim is to unify U.S. market regulation. CFTC’s Crypto Sprint is to Regulate Spot Trading via Futures Exchanges In a press release, Acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham announced that the launch of Crypto Sprint,