The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has issued a statement, calling for comments on its review of the Trading Division’s approval of Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap (GDLC) Fund, which could become the first spot XRP ETF. The altcoin accounts for 5.99% of the fund’s total holdings. The Commission also called for comments on the
Jerome Powell’s speech at the Fed’s International Finance (IF) Division anniversary conference quietly signaled the central bank’s growing openness to easing monetary policy. This prospective shift has sent Bitcoin (BTC) soaring above $105,000.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to work against political pressure from President Trump, who advocates for rate cuts. This contention has sparked speculation of Powell’s imminent resignation.
Bitcoin Surges as IF Models Point to Dollar Weakness
Bitcoin surged past $105,000 on Monday, buoyed by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may be preparing to pivot its monetary policy stance later this year.
The rally followed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the International Finance (IF) Division’s 75th anniversary conference. Powell reiterated the critical role of global data and modeling in shaping US monetary policy in his speech.
However, he did not directly signal any change in interest rates. While Powell’s remarks were framed as a tribute to the IF Division’s legacy, analysts and crypto investors parsed his words for policy clues amid mounting signs of disinflation and economic resilience.
“Understanding this complex and interconnected web is essential for us to anticipate the path of employment and inflation,” Powell said.
Although Powell did not mention easing or rate cuts, he emphasized that IF research is central to the “risks and uncertainty assessment that FOMC committee participants receive in advance of every meeting.”
That line, coupled with the Fed Chair’s comment that the division’s work is “certainly relevant today,” has sparked speculation that the Fed is preparing for a potential dovish shift if current economic trends continue.
This combination of disinflation and job stability supports both prongs of the Fed’s dual mandate. Crypto market analyst Kyle Chassé pointed to these dynamics as fuel for risk assets like Bitcoin.
“FED PIVOT INCOMING? The last CPI came in at just +2.3% YoY. Unemployment is steady around 4.2%. Fed officials say if inflation keeps cooling and jobs stay strong, rate cuts are on the table later this year. That’s rocket fuel for Bitcoin,” Chassé posted on X.
Investors also noted that Powell praised the IF division’s development of advanced models for “assessing risks and uncertainties through alternative scenarios.” According to Powell, these are instrumental in understanding the impact of global shocks.
Though not tied to any specific forecast, these capabilities are increasingly viewed by market participants as laying the groundwork for responsive monetary policy in the second half (H2) of 2025.
Is Bitcoin’s Recovery A Bet on Policy Shifts?
Bitcoin’s move above $105,000 reflects broader optimism that the Fed will begin easing before year-end, especially if inflation continues its downward trend.
According to data on the CME FedWatchTool, markets are pricing in a 95.3% probability that the Fed will maintain the current target rate of 4.25-4.50 basis points (bps) at the June 18, 2025, FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, there is a 4.7% chance of a 25 bps cut to 40.0-4.25 bps.
Though the central bank remains cautious in its public language, Powell’s focus on global risk modeling and his acknowledgment of ongoing uncertainty suggest a more data-responsive posture.
“This work is critical to understanding the quantitative implications of uncertainty shocks. Certainly, relevant today,” Powell noted.
For Bitcoin bulls, that relevance could translate into a more accommodative environment in which digital assets benefit from loosening financial conditions, a weakening dollar, and investors seeking alternative stores of value.
While the Fed has not confirmed a pivot, the market is listening closely, with Bitcoin holding well above $105,000.
BeInCrypto data shows BTC was trading for $105,568 as of this writing, up by a modest 0.62% in the last 24 hours.
As Kyle Chassé suggests, a rate cut could spur Bitcoin’s growth. However, the high probability of no change may delay any significant bullish momentum in the near term, likely explaining the modest gains.
XRP recently hit a new all-time high before entering a period of sideways consolidation. The cryptocurrency has struggled to break past resistance but has also managed to avoid a major correction.
This equilibrium, however, may not last much longer as investor behavior signals a shift in momentum.
XRP Investors Are Not Confident
Investors have started selling off large amounts of XRP, suggesting declining confidence in further upside. Over the past week, exchange wallets saw an influx of nearly 450 million XRP, valued at more than $2.81 billion. This spike in supply indicates that holders are moving their assets to sell, usually a bearish indicator in market cycles.
The rapid profit booking appears to be fueled by concerns that XRP has peaked in the short term. As investors move to secure their gains, the pressure on XRP’s price increases. A continued rise in selling could result in a drop below the immediate support levels, making recovery more difficult.
On-chain data further confirms the bearish sentiment. Liveliness, a metric used to track long-term holder (LTH) behavior, is currently at a three-month high. This suggests that LTHs, typically known for their conviction and market influence, are now selling XRP.
Their shift in behavior is a strong indicator of potential downward pressure.
Historically, an uptick in Liveliness precedes market corrections. Since LTHs hold a large portion of the supply, their decisions significantly impact price trends. The increase in Liveliness reflects a broader change in market outlook, aligning with the recent surge in exchange supply and overall decline in bullish sentiment.
XRP is currently trading at $3.48, only 4.8% away from its all-time high. Despite the proximity, the altcoin is showing signs of weakness and is clinging to the $3.38 support level. Without renewed buying interest, this support may not hold much longer.
If investor selling continues, XRP could fall through $3.38 and test the $3.00 support. A drop to this level would erase the recent gains and confirm a near-term bearish reversal. The loss of $3.00 could signal a longer consolidation phase or deeper correction.
However, if market participants absorb the sold supply and restore demand, XRP could rebound quickly. In this scenario, the altcoin might surpass $3.66, breach $3.80, and aim for $4.00. Such a move would invalidate the bearish outlook, and XRP Price could form a new ATH.
Welcome to the US Morning Crypto News Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.
Grab a coffee to see what experts have to say about Bitcoin’s (BTC) price outlook. Key investment strategies are driving the next directional bias for the pioneer crypto.
Is a $90,000 Breakout Imminent for Bitcoin?
Crypto markets continue to reel from Trump-infused volatility, which weighs heavily on investor sentiment. Traders and investors are bracing for macroeconomic headwinds that continue to temper modest gains.
However, despite the concerns, analysts are still optimistic, citing key investment or trading strategies. BeInCrypto contacted Blockhead Research Network (BRN) analyst Valentin Fournier, who alluded to the Wyckoff price cycle.
“Our base case remains an accumulation phase, with occasional dips likely before Bitcoin can make a clean break above the $89,000–$90,000 resistance,” Fournier told BeInCrypto.
The Wyckoff Price Cycle, developed by Richard Wyckoff, is a technical analysis framework to identify market trends and trading opportunities. It consists of four phases:
Accumulation: Where smart money buys at low prices, often marked by a “spring” (a false breakdown).
Markup: A bullish phase with rising prices.
Distribution: Where smart money sells at highs, also featuring a “spring” (false breakout).
Markdown: A bearish phase with declining prices.
Fournier added that because Bitcoin dominance continues to rise, this suggests altcoins could continue underperforming in the short term.
He also noted that, in contrast to Bitcoin’s strength, trade tensions have affected traditional markets more.
“This is highlighted by Nvidia’s decline following new export restrictions on chips to China,” he said.
What Does Options Data Say?
If the accumulation phase thesis is true, it aligns with a recent analysis by Deribit’s Tony Stewart, highlighting trader sentiment favoring the upside.
The bullish cohort is buying $90,000 to $100,000 Calls, suggesting bets on a price rise for Bitcoin. However, others are bearish, buying $80,000 Puts and selling $100,000+ Calls, indicating they expect a decline or hedging.
Likewise, funding strategies reveal bullish traders are rolling up positions from $84,000 to $90,000 Calls and selling lower Puts ($75,000) to finance their bets. This indicates confidence in a near-term rally.
Traders analyze these repeating phases’ price action, volume, and market structure. Based on that, they can spot reversals and time entries or exits while understanding institutional behavior.