A total of 22,000 Bitcoin options contracts will expire today with overall market activity remaining subdued as BTC price oscillates in a tight range between $82,000-$84,000. Amid tightening volatilities, traders have been ramping up selling activity recently. Analysts are predicting a BTC move either to $44,000 or to $112,000 based on macro conditions and other factors. another positive indicator is that Bitcoin ETF inflows have resumed once again with BlackRock’s IBIT leading the show.
22,000 Bitcoin Options to Expire Amid Flat Market Conditions
A total of 22,000 Bitcoin (BTC) options, with a Put/Call ratio of 0.84, are set to expire, carrying a notional value of $1.83 billion and a max pain point of $85,000, as per the data from Deribit.
Source: Deribit
Over the last week, the crypto market saw subdued market activity with the total number of option deliveries dropping by nearly 50%. Furthermore, short-term implied volatility (IV) saw a sharp decline, falling below 50% across the board for BTC, ahead of today’s Bitcoin options expiry.
Data shows that institutional options market makers are ramping up selling activity while tightening implied volatilities. This signals the expectations of a short-term sideways movement for Bitcoin ahead.
Where’s BTC Price Heading Next?
BTC price has struggled to break past the $84,000 resistance despite the recent initial thrust after the FOMC meeting. This shows that bulls have not mustered enough strength for a rally ahead. As the impact of the Trump tariff war on the US equity market intensifies, President Donald Trump has asked the US Federal Reserve to announce rate cuts soon.
Crypto market veterans like Arthur Hayes expect the Fed rate cuts to come by April which could push the Bitcoin price even higher. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has outlined pivotal support and resistance levels for Bitcoin (BTC) using pricing bands. He noted:
A break and hold above $94,000 could propel Bitcoin toward a surge to $112,000.
Conversely, a drop below $76,000 would place the next critical support levels at $58,000 and $44,000.
Source: Ali Martinez
BTC’s daily trading volume has dropped by 31% to $25 billion ahead of today’s Bitcoin options expiry. It will be interesting to see whether BTC resumes the uptrend in the near time.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Resume Again
US Bitcoin ETFs have recorded five consecutive sessions of inflows. On Thursday, March 20, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $166 million, signaling growing investor interest in the market. BlackRock’s IBIT led the surge, achieving the highest single-day net inflow among Bitcoin spot ETFs at $172 million, as per data from Farside Investors.
Retail company GameStop (GME) has announced plans to raise up to $1.3 billion to buy Bitcoin for its treasury. This comes just a day after the company announced BTC’s addition to its treasury reserve holdings. Meanwhile, the GME stock price has dropped following this announcement.
GameStop To Raise $1.3 Billion To Buy Bitcoin
In a press release, GameStop revealed plans to raise up to $1.3 billion to buy Bitcoin. The company announced that it intends to offer $1.3 billion aggregate principal amount of 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2030 in a private offering to qualified institutional buyers.
Furthermore, the retailer company also intends to grant the initial purchasers of the notes an option to purchase, within a 13-day period beginning on and including the date on which the notes are first issued, up to an additional $200 million aggregate principal amount of notes.
GameStop stated that it expects to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes, including acquiring Bitcoin in a manner consistent with the company’s Investment Policy. This move comes just a day after the company updated its investment policy to add BTC as a treasury reserve after the board’s approval.
MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor commented on this move. In an X post, he raised a poll, questioning the minimum amount of Bitcoin GME needs to buy to be respected by Bitcoiners. Interestingly, the company looks to be adopting MicroStrategy’s model of raising funds to buy Bitcoin through stock offerings.
The company has a lot of catching up to do to match MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin stack. Saylor’s company recently purchased 6,911 Bitcoin, bringing its total holdings to 506,137 BTC. Meanwhile,
GME Stock Drops Over 6%
MarketWatch data shows that GameStop’s stock has dropped over 6% amid the company’s plans to offer its convertible notes. The GME stock had surged over 30% between yesterday’s announcement and the early hours of trading today.
However, this drop has occurred amid concerns that the offering of these notes could lead to a dilution of existing shares. The stock price could still surge in the long term, especially considering how MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Strategy has positively impacted the MSTR stock price.
Bitcoin (BTC) has faced a challenging start to 2025, recording its worst quarterly returns in seven years during Q1.
This significant downturn has left investors questioning whether now is the time to buy or sell.
Bitcoin’s Q1 Performance: A Seven-Year Low
Bitcoin’s performance in Q1 2025 has been its weakest since 2018, a year marked by a brutal bear market that saw BTC lose over 50% of its value. Data from Coinglass shows that Bitcoin’s performance in Q1 2025 has decreased by 11.82%. In Q1 2024, Bitcoin recorded an increase of more than 68%.
According to a March 31, 2025, Bitcoin’s price has declined from $106,000 in December 2024 to around $80,200 by late March 2025.
This drop reflects a combination of macroeconomic pressures and policy uncertainties, particularly following US President Donald Trump’s new tariff policies.
Amid this bearish backdrop, on-chain data reveals a contrasting trend: Bitcoin whales are accumulating. A post from Santiment on X, dated March 31, 2025, reported that the number of whale addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC has reached 1,993.
This is the highest since December 2024. This represents a 2.6% increase over the past five weeks, signaling growing confidence among large holders.
Bitcoin whale wallets continue growing in number. Source: Santiment
Glassnode reported on March 31, 2025, that trading activity among Bitcoin holders with a 3-6 month horizon has dropped to its lowest level since June 2021. This decline indicates that short-term holders either hold steady or exit the market, reducing selling pressure.
“Spending from BTC holders is at the lowest levels since mid-2021. This inactivity reinforces the idea that recent top buyers are holding their positions rather than exiting, despite recent volatility.” reported Glassnode.
Additionally, on the same day, Bitcoin’s supply on exchanges fell to 7.53%, the lowest since February 2018. Low exchange supply often correlates with long-term holding behavior, creating scarcity that can drive prices higher over time. Together, these metrics suggest that Bitcoin may be entering a phase of accumulation and consolidation.
Market analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated on X on April 1, 2025, that Bitcoin’s selling pressure has been exhausted. Adler predicts a consolidation range forming in April and May, suggesting that the market may stabilize before its next significant move.
Fidelity Research believes Bitcoin is gaining momentum for the next stage of its “acceleration phase.” Fidelity’s analysis draws on historical cycles, noting that periods of consolidation often precede major price increases. It is driven by institutional adoption and Bitcoin’s role as an inflation hedge.
This aligns with the whale accumulation trend and the decreasing exchange supply, pointing to potential upward momentum in the medium to long term.
Bitcoin’s price remains volatile as traders react to major economic events, including Trump’s crypto reserve, tariffs, and the Federal Reserve’s latest stance.
Bitcoin (BTC) Finds Support at $86,000 after Volatile Week
Bitcoin’s price has experienced significant volatility over the past week, influenced by various economic and political developments. As of Saturday, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $86,000, reflecting a 7% decline from its peak earlier in the week.
Several key factors have contributed to this price movement, including President Donald Trump’s announcement of a strategic cryptocurrency reserve, the implementation of new tariffs, the outcomes of a White House summit on digital assets, and the latest U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report.
On March 2, President Trump unveiled plans for a U.S. strategic cryptocurrency reserve, dubbed the “Digital Fort Knox,” aiming to bolster the nation’s position in the digital asset space. This reserve is set to include major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA).
Bitcoin Price Action, March 8, 2025
The announcement led to a swift market reaction, with Bitcoin surging 13% moving from local lows around $78,200 to hit a monthly time frame peak of $95,000 within 48 hours of Trump’s crypto strategic reserve announcement . Altcoins like XRP and Cardano saw even more substantial gains, with XRP rising by 40% and Cardano doubling in value.
While the inclusion of altcoins sparked debate among Bitcoin purists, the administration defended the decision as a move to support a diverse range of blockchain projects.
However, further market events prompted short-term traders to take profits, causing Bitcoin’s momentum to record 4 consecutive losing days as the week unfolded.
2) Implementation of New Tariffs Introduces Volatility
On March 3, President Trump announced a 25% blanket tariff on all imports from China and Mexico, aiming to protect domestic industries. This policy shift rattled global financial markets, leading to a sharp sell-off in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin’s price retraced its earlier gains, dipping to a weekly low of $81,400 by March 4.
In response to retaliatory measures from the affected countries and domestic pushback, the administration partially rolled back the tariffs. On March 6, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce announced exemptions for Mexican imports and a one-month delay for auto import tariffs. This policy reversal provided a relief rally for Bitcoin, contributing to consecutive days of price appreciation.
3) White House Summit on Digital Assets
The week culminated with a White House summit on digital assets, where industry leaders and policymakers convened to discuss the future of cryptocurrencies in the U.S. Prior to the summit, David Sacks, the administration’s crypto and AI policy advisor, criticized the previous administration for missing out on potential profits from seized Bitcoin assets. He highlighted that the government currently holds approximately 200,000 BTC, valued at over $17 billion, acquired through legal seizures.
During the summit, President Trump signed an executive order to formalize the creation of the “Digital Fort Knox,” reinforcing the administration’s commitment to integrating cryptocurrencies into the national financial infrastructure. However, the lack of immediate actionable policies led to a 4% decline in Bitcoin’s value post-summit, reflecting market disappointment over the absence of concrete regulatory guidance.
4) Impact of Non-Farm Payrolls Report
The latest U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, released on March 7, revealed an increase in unemployment rates, raising concerns about persistent inflation and the potential for more aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. These macroeconomic factors have added downward pressure on Bitcoin, as investors reassess risk exposures in light of potential interest rate hikes.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: Bulls must hold $85,000 Support to Maintain Upside Prospects
BTC price stabilization around the $86,000 level suggests a consolidation phase as the market digests recent developments. Traders will closely monitor upcoming economic indicators, Federal Reserve communications, and any further policy announcements related to digital assets will likely dictate the next directional move in the coming days.
Bitcoin price forecast signals on the the 12-hour chart shows Bitcoin trading within a tight range, with Bollinger Bands compressing, indicating lower volatility. The price hovers near the 50-day moving average, acting as immediate support, while the upper Bollinger Band at $93,822 serves as resistance.
Bitcoin Price Forecast
Momentum indicators suggest mixed signals. The MACD histogram shows declining bullish momentum, with the signal line approaching a bearish crossover. However, the overall structure remains intact, as long as Bitcoin holds above $85,000.
A break below this level could trigger further downside towards $80,800, the lower Bollinger Band, while a rebound could send Bitcoin toward the $87,346 mid-band resistance before a possible push to the $90,000 psychological level.
Leverage remains a key factor, with increased open interest potentially amplifying Bitcoin’s next move. Traders should watch volume trends and liquidity imbalances, as a sharp liquidation event could define the next major price swing.
